Time Series Analysis, Bayesian Inference and the Development of a Dynamic Supply Chain Model (White Paper Excerpt)
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George Box is considered to be one of the most influential statistician’s of the 20th century. My theory of strand commonality is based on a variation of his time series analysis model which seeks to determine why and how data points come into being. The distinct difference between strand commonality and those developed or studied by Box is that he attempted to forecast versus adapt to future events based on what he referred to as “known past events.”

An article I wrote in early 2008 on Similarity Heuristics and Iterative Modeling introduced the existence of multiple stakeholder streams which are comprised of indigenous attributes that are to varying degrees dynamic versus being static in nature. This of course causes one to ask the question, what if a certain number of a single stream’s attributes used in an historic reference model are in fact dynamic? What impact will this dynamic element have on a reference model’s ongoing veracity? A question of equal importance is what happens when multiple stakeholder streams, each with their own mix of both dynamic as well as static attributes, are introduced into the model? The very nature of dynamic elements makes it increasingly difficult to use a static model to predict what will happen, when it will happen and what the ultimate impact will be. As a result historic-based reference models have a degenerating metrical value in the real-world as they are rear facing, in essence looking at what was versus being forward facing, and adapting to what is.

Why is this important beyond the realm of postulating debate? The answers to these questions are of critical importance as they will ultimately determine the sustainable viability of widely adopted “best practice” models that seek to both establish and utilize static points of historical reference.

And while proponents of models such as Integrated Enterprise Excellence or IEE identify flexibility as a primary characteristic of the system, assertions that “IEE is a system of checks and balances that will stay in place regardless of management continuity, changes in competitive conditions, or the economic climate,” seem to be somewhat contradictory. As is the case with the SCOR model, I would ask the question, how will IEE adapt to dynamic attributive changes in a single stakeholder stream as well as multiple stakeholder streams?

This white paper will drill down into the very foundations of the models or systems that are being heralded as the path to optimal performance and superior results.

The insights that you will gain will enable you to accurately asses the sustanable viability of your current model, and determine the level of organizational adaptability that is necessary to compete in the emerging global marketplace.

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