World Economic Forum
November 2006
Europe@Risk
A Report by the Global Risk Network
COMMITTED TO
IMPROVING THE STATE
OF THE WORLD
This work was prepared by the Global Risk Network of the World Economic Forum.
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REF: 161106
Introduction
4
Managing Global Risk: The Global Risk Network
6
Turkey: Risk or Risk Mitigator?
7
European Perceptions of Risk
8
Perception of Turkey as a Source of Risk
9
Three Possible Risk Mitigation Roles for Turkey
11
I. Global Risk: “Oil Price Shock/Energy Interruptions”
11
II. Global Risk: “Coming Fiscal Crises Caused by Demographic Shift”
12
III. Global Risk: “Interstate and Civil War”
12
Europe@Risk Matrix
13
Europe’s Dilemma: Values vs Interests and Protectionism vs Leadership
18
Risk Mitigation: Conditions and Prospects for Turkey’s Potential Role
21
Turkey’s Role in Mitigating Europe’s Social Risks
23
From Risk to Opportunity: How Multilateralization Has Changed Greek Attitudes to Turkey 25
Dealing with Risk: If Turkey and Europe Break Up…
27
Footnotes
29
List of Participants
31
Contents
3
The relationship between Europe and Turkey is
driven by three factors: historical experience and
memory, perceptions of immediate interests and
assessment of long-term strategic options. These
three elements are in constant interplay, permanently
rebalancing each other, giving the relationship with
Europe and Turkey both its complexity and vitality.
First, in the space of historical experience and
memory stand a number of issues which form the
historical and psychological backdrop for the
relationship between Europe and Turkey: historical
conceptions of “Europe”, the nature of the