Outlook
Our six-year investment theme endures.
Investment Management Division
Investment Strategy Group | January 2015
US Preeminence
This material represents the views of the Investment Strategy Group in
the Investment Management Division of Goldman Sachs. It is not a product
of Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research. The views and opinions
expressed herein may differ from those expressed by other groups of
Goldman Sachs.
Sharmin Mossavar-Rahmani
Chief Investment Officer
Investment Strategy Group
Goldman Sachs
Brett Nelson
Head of Tactical Asset Allocation
Investment Strategy Group
Goldman Sachs
Additional Contributors
from the Investment
Strategy Group:
Matthew Weir
Managing Director
Maziar Minovi
Managing Director
Benoit Mercereau
Managing Director
Farshid Asl
Managing Director
2 01 5 O U T LO O K
Outlook Investment Strategy Group
1
Overview
the preeminence of the united states has driven our
investment views for the past six years and over this time we have
recommended clients maintain the core of their strategic allocation
in US assets. Since the global financial crisis, the United States has
outpaced major developed and emerging market countries and
regions across economic, financial and human capital dimensions.
With US equities now some 240% higher than their 2009 trough,
we have to ask: Has the investment theme of US preeminence
already played out?
We answer that question in the pages that
follow by examining key measures and showing
that the gap between the United States and other
major countries and regions has widened relative
to pre-crisis levels. The United States continues to
build on its strengths, ranging from immigration to
innovation, while many other key developed and
emerging market countries and regions are held
back by their structural fault lines, ranging from
demographics to governance. Our analysis shows
that the full scale of US preeminence has not yet
been fully factored in or discounted.
We believe that our six-year investment
theme will ther