UN/POP/MORT/2003/3
18 August 2003
ENGLISH ONLY
WORKSHOP ON HIV/AIDS AND ADULT MORTALITY
IN DEVELOPING COUNTRIES
Population Division
Department of Economic and Social Affairs
United Nations Secretariat
New York, 8-13 September 2003
ADULT MORTALITY IN THE ERA OF
HIV/AIDS: SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA *
Pierre Ngom ** and Samuel Clark ***
* This document was reproduced without formal editing.
** Senior Research Advisor, Family Health International, Nairobi, Kenya.
***Research Associate in Population, Institute of Behavioral Science, University of Colorado at Boulder, University of the
Witwatersrand, Durban, South Africa. The views expressed in the paper do not imply the expression of any opinion on the part of
the United Nations Secretariat.
1
INTRODUCTION
The strong age-specific impact of HIV on mortality is reshaping the population structure of African
countries with substantial epidemics. The survival of adults in the worst effected countries is
substantially reduced which will eventually depopulate certain tiers of the age pyramid, reducing the
number of adults available to reproduce, and this together with the impact of HIV on fertility itself, will
substantially alter the age distribution of severely impacted African populations for many decades to
come.
This paper investigates the impact of the pandemic on adult mortality at the national level and
examines the relationship between total adult mortality, HIV-related adult mortality and the prevalence of
HIV among adults. The impact of HIV on the age-pattern of adult mortality is described, and data on
existing age-patterns of adult death and the number of years of life expectancy lost due to HIV are
discussed.
B. DATA
The data used in this work come from United Nations and World Health Organization sources. Data
describing the overall number of adult deaths, HIV deaths and percent of adults infected with HIV
(prevalence) come from the UNAIDS “Barcelona” R