ased on astronomical cycles
Active Cavity Radiometer Irradiance Monitor (ACRIM) Lab, C
Duke University, Durham, NC 27708, USA
a r t i c l e i n f o
Article history:
Received 28 December 2012
Accepted 20 August 2013
Available online 30 August 2013
Keywords:
Natural climate variability
Global surface temperature
Climate models
Astronomical harmonic forcings
21st century climate projections
Statistical analysis
Earth-Science Reviews 126 (2013) 321–357
Contents lists available at ScienceDirect
Earth-Science Reviews
1. Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 322
2. Simple analysis of GST and the CMIP5 ensemble mean simulations . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 324
3. Scale-by-scale comparison between GST and the CMIP5 simulations . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 324
Contents
should investigate space-climate coupling mechanisms in order to develop more advanced analytical and semi-
empirical climate models. The HadCRUT3 and HadCRUT4, UAHMSU, RSSMSU, GISS and NCDC GST reconstructions
and 162 CMIP5 GCM GST simulations from 48 alternative models are analyzed.
© 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
3.1. Scale-by-scale harmonic decomposi
3.2. Scale-by-scale band-pass ï¬lter deco
3.3. Direct power spectrum comparison
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signiï¬cantly better than any CMIP5 GCM simulation. Under the same CMIP5 anthropogenic emission scenarios,
themodel projects a possible 2000–2100 average warming ranging from about 0.3 °C to 1.8 °C. This range is signif-
icantly below the original CMIP5GCMensemblemeanprojections spanning fromabout 1 °C to 4 °C. Future research
oronado, CA 92118, USA
a b s t r a c t
Power spectra of global surface temperature (GST) records (available since 185