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Global Venture Lab
UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA BERKELEY
The widespread adoption of electric vehicles (EVs) in place of internal combustion engine
(ICE) vehicles in the United States will have a significant impact on the global economy.
This paper deals only with the impact on the domestic economy. Specifically, this change
will cause some domestic industries (e.g. gasoline) to shrink, while causing others (e.g.
electricity production) to grow. We estimate the petroleum industry will suffer a $174.9
billion decline, while the battery industry will experience $120.3 billion gain at 39%
adoption (year 2030). There will also be significant changes in the balance of payments
among nations as petroleum imports decline. We find the net imports1 of the US will
decline by $20 Billion at 39% adoption. Additionally, we find EVs to be the more efficient
technology, as the total cost of ownership is $7,203 (2008 dollars) less than that of an ICE
vehicle. Together with the reduction in imports, consumers will benefit from savings due
to the reduced energy and maintenance costs of EVs, which will reach $80 billion (in 2008
dollars) by 2030.
1. Summary of Results
Industry Gains & Losses
We model effects on all domestic industries directly affected by EV or ICE penetration (e.g.
electricity generation and gasoline). Industries common to both technologies, such as retail
tire sales, and those industries not directly affected by ICE and EV adoption, such as