EVAWATION OF GRAIN STOCKS ESTIMATES
by
Clarence D.mlcerley
Research and Development Branch
Standards and Research Division
Statistical
Reporting Service
Jtme 1971
Table of Contents
Page
General
Objectives
"
"
.
Swnrnary and conclusions
.
The S a.Jl1.p1e •••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••
_ •••
" ••••••••
On-Farm Grain Stocks
The survey ...•................................................
S\lIInllsxizat ion
.
Anal ys is
.
A.
Estimation of differences in grain stocks reports,
resident farm operators
.
B. Estimation of differences in grain stocks reports,
all farm reports
.
C. Bas is for reporter data
.
D. Reasons for production report differences
.
E.
Reasons for stocks report differences
.
F. EnlDl1eratoreffects
.
G.
Reports of high moisture corn
.
II. Reports of grain not-harvested
.
I. Comparisons of reported, measured and weighed stocks.
J. Comparison of estimates
.
Off-Farm Grain Stocks
Analysis
A.
List incanpleteness
.
B. Characteristics of mill and elevator reports
.
1
1
2
3
5
5
5
15
24
28
31
35
35
35
36
37
39
41
Closed Segment ~~iled Questionnaire
..........................•..•
48
Appendix
51
EVAWATION
OF GRAIN STOCKS ESTlMATES
by
Clarence Dunkerley
GENERAL
The Statistical Reporting Service has been trying to improve the accuracy
of grain stocks estimates.
Introduction of the probability
survey was
viewed as a likely improvement but there is evidence that it has some
operating prOblems that needed study.
This research project was initiated
to define prOblem areas and help develop procedures to correct them.
The
Indiana, Ohio, and Nebraska State Statistical Offices (ssors) worked with
the Research and Development Branch to complete this project.
Objectives
The primary objective of this research project was to identify and measure
the effects of certain problem areas associated with the estimating procedure.
Some specific objectives were:
(1) To develop techniques for improving the accuracy of reports
from the probability grain stocks survey.
(2) Determine importance of on-fann and off-farm stocks of mil