Challenges for Vacuum Systems Manufacturers
in the PV Industry
Michael Liehr
Leybold Optics Dresden
M. Liehr, ISPRA Workshop, 23-24. Nov. 2007
1
Trends & Motivation
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y e a r
N e w C o n c e p ts
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Unrivalled market
growth over the past
years
Subsedised markets,
growing prices for fossil
fuels
Global warming
becoming focus of
politics
Growing market
share for thin film
technologies
Thin film PV
needs high percentage
of vacuum based
technologies
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Shipments in MWp2004
2005
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ROW
USA
Germany
Japan
M. Liehr, ISPRA Workshop, 23-24. Nov. 2007
2
Market Development
Further market
growth only by signi-
ficant cost reductions
Reductions of EBIT/
margin seems
inevitable
Thin film PV will take
the same course as
wafer based PV
M. Liehr, ISPRA Workshop, 23-24. Nov. 2007
3
Market Development
Photovoltaics:
- The price problem -
• PV market will continue to
be artificial for the time being
• Price increase for fossil
and nuclear fuels may be
helpful for PV
• Thin film PV has higher
potential for cost reductions
• Thin film solar cells have
shorter energy payback
cycles
M. Liehr, ISPRA Workshop, 23-24. Nov. 2007
4
Market Development
All types of
solar cells in
conventional
modules
„BIPV“
• cheap Si TF cells
• cheap CIGS cells
• cheap CdTe cells
• cheap …
...in cheap modules
Market
saturation
High efficiency
• crystalline cells
• tandem/triple Si tf
cells
• CIGS cells
... in conventional
modules
2007
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$
High efficiency branch:
• smaller part of the market
• efficiency is technology driver
• some thin film technologies
may be competitive
BIPV (building integrated
photovoltaics) branch:
• larger part of the market
• Wp costs are technology
driver
• large sized cells in
flexible modules (or cheap
conventionel type modules)
M. Liehr, ISPRA Workshop, 23-24. Nov. 2007
5
Challenges
Three Challenges
„Turnkey“ Solutions (f. thin fil