05/06 06/07 07/08
05/06 06/07 07/08
20
25
30
35
40
United States
Department of
Agriculture
Foreign
Agricultural
Service
Circular Series
FG 08-07
August 2007
Grain:
World Markets and Trade
Approved by the World Agricultural Outlook Board - USDA
Low carryin stocks and lower wheat production (down nearly 4 million tons year-to-year) in
Canada have reduced exportable supplies and enhanced trade opportunities for U.S. Hard Red
Spring and Hard Red Winter. With domestic use currently forecast as little changed, stocks could
be driven down to unprecedented low levels.
On the other hand, the coarse grains situation is rebounding. Barley production is recovering to
more normal levels, despite less than optimal growing conditions and competition from oilseeds.
Even so, exports are still forecast to fall due to tight carryin stocks, strong domestic demand for
feed grains, and debate over the future of the Canadian Wheat Board’s authority covering barley
exports.
For corn, record production spurred by high U.S. prices is expected to reduce imports to the lowest
level in 8 years, despite record consumption. Feed use is slowly growing once again but industrial
use—primarily for ethanol—is soaring. The largest oats crop in 11 years will allow Canada to
dominate global trade and U.S. imports.
04/05
05/06
06/07
07/08
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
Wheat Exports Drop
(Year to Year Change)
Exportable Supplies Fall for Wheat,
Rise for Coarse Grains
MMT
MMT
Coarse
Grains
*Exportable Supplies = Beginning Stocks + Production
Wheat
Canadian Grains Situation:
Wheat and Coarse Grains Supplies Contrast
TABLE OF CONTENTS
World Markets and Trade: Commentary and Current Data
Wheat ................................................................................................................. 4
Rice .................................................................................................................. 10
Coarse Grains................................................................