MAIA FINANCIAL SERVICES PVT LTD
1
MAIA
FINANCIAL
SERVICES
PVT LTD
ECONOMY 360 DEGREES
INDIA: DECEMBER 2009
JULY 2009
MAIA FINANCIAL SERVICES PVT LTD
2
Index:
1) Market View ……………………………………………….3
2) Economic Indicators
a. GDP growth …………………..………………………4
b. Credit growth………………………………………….4
c. Money supply…………………………………………..5
d. Inflation…………………………………………………6
e. Yield curve………………………………………………6
f. Corporate Bond spreads……………………………......7
g. 10 year government bond yield………………………..8
h. Interest rates…………………………………………….9
i. Dollar…………………………………………………….9
j. IIP…………………………………………………………9
k. Core Infrastructure Industry……………………………11
3) Economy Pulse Analysis………………………………………….11
MAIA FINANCIAL SERVICES PVT LTD
3
Market View:
Currently the markets are at 17169 and 5123 as we write this report(As on 3
rd
dec 2009).
Indian markets have not been able to break their October highs while the global markets
are making new highs. The long term trend remains intact with a bias on upper side.
However the shorter term looks to be uncertain.
Global recovery, domestic growth story, Weakness in the dollar are the key points to drive
the markets to these level.
We feel that on a longer term, gold can still touch newer highs on account of weakening
dollar.
We expect the markets to show resistance this month in clearing the previous top made in
October. A dip of 5% or so can be expected from these levels. However one should note
that it would again act as entry points for long term investors.
A look on various economic indicators supports our view of markets for shorter term remaining
volatile, uncertain with a bias on negative side-Credit off take growth for the week ended 6
th
Nov
2009 slowed down to as low as 9.8%. However it showed an improvement and the latest figures
indicate the readings