Exchange Rates and Fundamentals_ Evidence on the Economic Value of Predictability.pdf

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WORKING PAPERS SERIES 
WP04-01 
 
 
 
Exchange Rates and Fundamentals:    
Evidence on the Economic Value of 
Predictability 
Abhay Abhayankar, Lucio Sarno and Giorgio Valente  
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List of other working papers: 
2004 
1. Xiaohong Chen, Yanqin Fan and Andrew Patton, Simple Tests for Models of Dependence 
Between Multiple Financial Time Series, with Applications to U.S. Equity Returns and 
Exchange Rates, WP04-19 
2. Valentina Corradi and Walter Distaso, Testing for One-Factor Models versus Stochastic 
Volatility Models, WP04-18 
3. Valentina Corradi and Walter Distaso, Estimating and Testing Sochastic Volatility Models 
using Realized Measures, WP04-17 
4. Valentina Corradi and Norman Swanson, Predictive Density Accuracy Tests, WP04-16 
5. Roel Oomen, Properties of Bias Corrected Realized Variance Under Alternative Sampling 
Schemes, WP04-15 
6. Roel Oomen, Properties of Realized Variance for a Pure Jump Process:  Calendar Time 
Sampling versus Business Time Sampling, WP04-14 
7. Richard Clarida, Lucio Sarno, Mark Taylor and Giorgio Valente, The Role of Asymmetries and 
Regime Shifts in the Term Structure of Interest Rates, WP04-13 
8. Lucio Sarno, Daniel Thornton and Giorgio Valente, Federal Funds Rate Prediction, WP04-12 
9. Lucio Sarno and Giorgio Valente, Modeling and Forecasting Stock Returns:  Exploiting the 
Futures Market, Regime Shifts and International Spillovers, WP04-11 
10. Lucio Sarno and Giorgio Valente, Empirical Exchange Rate Models and Currency Risk:  Some 
Evidence from Density Forecasts, WP04-10 
11. Ilias Tsiakas, Periodic Stochastic Volatility and Fat Tails, WP04-09 
12. Ilias Tsiakas, Is Seasonal Heteroscedasticity Real?  An International Perspective, WP04-08 
13. Damin Challet, Andrea De Martino, Matteo Marsili and Isaac Castillo, Minority games with 
finite score memory, WP04-07 
14. Basel Awartani, Valentina Corradi and Walter Distaso, Testing and Modelling Market 
Microstructure Effects with an Application to the Dow Jones Industrial Average, WP04-06 
15. Andrew Patton and Allan Timmermann, Properties of Optimal Forecasts under Asymmetric 
Loss and Nonlinearity, WP04-05 
16. Andrew Patton, Modelling Asymmetric Exchange Rate Dependence, WP04-04 
17. Alessio Sancetta, Decoupling and Convergence to Independence with Applications to 
Functional Limit Theorems, WP04-03 
18. Alessio Sancetta, Copula Based Monte Carlo Integration in Financial Problems, WP04-02 
19. Abhay Abhayankar, Lucio Sarno and Giorgio Valente, Exchange Rates and Fundamentals:  
Evidence on the Economic Value of Predictability, WP04-01 
2002 
1. Paolo Zaffaroni, Gaussian inference on Certain Long-Range Dependent Volatility Models, 
WP02-12 
2. Paolo Zaffaroni, Aggregation and Memory of Models of Changing Volatility, WP02-11 
3. Jerry Coakley, Ana-Maria Fuertes and Andrew Wood, Reinterpreting the Real Exchange Rate 
- Yield Diffential Nexus, WP02-10 
4. Gordon Gemmill and Dylan Thomas , Noise Training, Costly Arbitrage and Asset Prices: 
evidence from closed-end funds, WP02-09 
5. Gordon Gemmill, Testing Merton's Model for Credit Spreads on Zero-Coupon Bonds, WP02-
08 
6. George Christodoulakis and Steve Satchell, On th Evolution of Global Style Factors in the 
MSCI Universe of Assets, WP02-07 
7. George Christodoulakis, Sharp Style Analysis in the MSCI Sector Portfolios: A Monte Caro 
Integration Approach, WP02-06 
8. George Christodoulakis, Generating Composite Volatility Forecasts with Random Factor 
Betas, WP02-05 
9. Claudia Riveiro and Nick Webber, Valuing Path Dependent Options in the Variance-Gamma 
Model by Monte Carlo with a Gamma Bridge, WP02-04 
10. Christian Pedersen and Soosung Hwang, On Empirical Risk Measurement with Asymmetric 
Returns Data, WP02-03 
11. Roy Batchelor and Ismail Orgakcioglu, Event-related GARCH: the impact of stock dividends 
in Turkey, WP02-02 
12. George Albanis and Roy Batchelor, Combining Heterogeneous Classifiers for Stock Selection, 
WP02-01 
2001 
1. Soosung Hwang and Steve Satchell , GARCH Model with Cross-sectional Volatility; GARCHX 
Models, WP01-16 
2. Soosung Hwang and Steve Satchell, Tracking Error: Ex-Ante versus Ex-Post Measures, 
WP01-15 
3. Soosung Hwang and Steve Satchell, The Asset Allocation Decision in a Loss Aversion World, 
WP01-14 
4. Soosung Hwang and Mark Salmon, An Analysis of Performance Measures Using Copulae, 
WP01-13 
5. Soosung Hwang and Mark Salmon, A New Measure of Herding and Empirical Evidence, 
WP01-12 
6. Richard Lewin and Steve Satchell, The Derivation of New Model of Equity Duration, WP01-
11 
7. Massimiliano Marcellino and Mark Salmon, Robust Decision Theory and the Lucas Critique, 
WP01-10 
8. Jerry Coakley, Ana-Maria Fuertes and Maria-Teresa Perez, Numerical Issues in Threshold 
Autoregressive Modelling of Time Series, WP01-09 
9. Jerry Coakley, Ana-Maria Fuertes and Ron Smith, Small Sample Properties of Panel Time-
series Estimators with I(1) Errors, WP01-08 
10. Jerry Coakley and Ana-Maria Fuertes, The Felsdtein-Horioka Puzzle is Not as Bad as You 
Think, WP01-07 
11. Jerry Coakley and Ana-Maria Fuertes, Rethinking the Forward Premium Puzzle in a Non-
linear Framework, WP01-06 
12. George Christodoulakis, Co-Volatility and Correlation Clustering: A Multivariate Correlated 
ARCH Framework, WP01-05 
13. Frank Critchley, Paul Marriott and Mark Salmon, On Preferred Point Geometry in Statistics, 
WP01-04 
14. Eric Bouyé and Nicolas Gaussel and Mark Salmon, Investigating Dynamic Dependence Using 
Copulae, WP01-03 
15. Eric Bouyé, Multivariate Extremes at Work for Portfolio Risk Measurement, WP01-02 
16. Erick Bouyé, Vado Durrleman, Ashkan Nikeghbali, Gael Riboulet and Thierry Roncalli, 
Copulas: an Open Field for Risk Management, WP01-01 
2000 
1. Soosung Hwang and Steve Satchell , Valuing Information Using Utility Functions, WP00-06   
2. Soosung Hwang, Properties of Cross-sectional Volatility, WP00-05  
3. Soosung Hwang and Steve Satchell, Calculating the Miss-specification in Beta from Using a 
Proxy for the Market Portfolio, WP00-04  
4. Laun Middleton and Stephen Satchell, Deriving the APT when the Number of Factors is 
Unknown, WP00-03  
5. George A. Christodoulakis and Steve Satchell, Evolving Systems of Financial Returns:  Auto-
Regressive Conditional Beta, WP00-02  
6. Christian S. Pedersen and Stephen Satchell, Evaluating the Performance of Nearest 
Neighbour Algorithms when Forecasting US Industry Returns, WP00-01  
1999 
1. Yin-Wong Cheung, Menzie Chinn and Ian Marsh, How do UK-Based Foreign Exchange 
Dealers Think Their Market Operates?, WP99-21 
2. Soosung Hwang, John Knight and Stephen Satchell, Forecasting Volatility using LINEX Loss 
Functions, WP99-20 
3. Soosung Hwang and Steve Satchell, Improved Testing for the Efficiency of Asset Pricing 
Theories in Linear Factor Models, WP99-19 
4. Soosung Hwang and Stephen Satchell, The Disappearance of Style in the US Equity Market, 
WP99-18 
5. Soosung Hwang and Stephen Satchell, Modelling Emerging Market Risk Premia Using Higher 
Moments, WP99-17 
6. Soosung Hwang and Stephen Satchell, Market Risk and the Concept of Fundamental 
Volatility:  Measuring Volatility Across Asset and Derivative Markets and Testing for the 
Impact of Derivatives Markets on Financial Markets, WP99-16 
7. Soosung Hwang, The Effects of Systematic Sampling and Temporal Aggregation on Discrete 
Time Long Memory Processes and their Finite Sample Properties, WP99-15 
8. Ronald MacDonald and Ian Marsh, Currency Spillovers and Tri-Polarity:  a Simultaneous 
Model of the US Dollar, German Mark and Japanese Yen, WP99-14 
9. Robert Hillman, Forecasting Inflation with a Non-linear Output Gap Model, WP99-13 
10. Robert Hillman and Mark Salmon , From Market Micro-structure to Macro Fundamentals:  is 
there Predictability in the Dollar-Deutsche Mark Exchange Rate?, WP99-12 
11. Renzo Avesani, Giampiero Gallo and Mark Salmon, On the Evolution of Credibility and 
Flexible Exchange Rate Target Zones, WP99-11 
12. Paul Marriott and Mark Salmon, An Introduction to Differential Geometry in Econometrics, 
WP99-10 
13. Mark Dixon, Anthony Ledford and Paul Marriott, Finite Sample Inference for Extreme Value 
Distributions, WP99-09 
14. Ian Marsh and David Power, A Panel-Based Investigation into the Relationship Between 
Stock Prices and Dividends, WP99-08 
15. Ian Marsh, An Analysis of the Performance of European Foreign Exchange Forecasters, 
WP99-07 
16. Frank Critchley, Paul Marriott and Mark Salmon, An Elementary Account of Amari's Expected 
Geometry, WP99-06 
17. Demos Tambakis and Anne-Sophie Van Royen, Bootstrap Predictability of Daily Exchange 
Rates in ARMA Models, WP99-05 
18. Christopher Neely and Paul Weller, Technical Analysis and Central Bank Intervention, WP99-
04 
19. Christopher Neely and Paul Weller, Predictability in International Asset Returns: A Re-
examination, WP99-03 
20. Christopher Neely and Paul Weller, Intraday Technical Trading in the Foreign Exchange 
Market, WP99-02 
21. Anthony Hall, Soosung Hwang and Stephen Satchell, Using Bayesian Variable Selection 
Methods to Choose Style Factors in Global Stock Return Models, WP99-01 
1998 
1. Soosung Hwang and Stephen Satchell, Implied Volatility Forecasting:  A Compaison of 
Different Procedures Including Fractionally Integrated Models with Applications to UK Equity 
Options, WP98-05 
2. Roy Batchelor and David Peel, Rationality Testing under Asymmetric Loss, WP98-04 
3. Roy Batchelor, Forecasting T-Bill Yields: Accuracy versus Profitability, WP98-03 
4. Adam Kurpiel and Thierry Roncalli , Option Hedging with Stochastic Volatility, WP98-02 
5. Adam Kurpiel and Thierry Roncalli, Hopscotch Methods for Two State Financial Models, 
WP98-01