Department of
Economic Studies,
University of Dundee,
Dundee.
DD1 4HN
Dundee Discussion Papers
in Economics
ESTIMATING THE EFFECT OF
PROJECTED HOUSEHOLD
COMPOSITION CHANGE ON
PRODUCTION IN SCOTLAND
J.H.L. Dewhurst
Working Paper
No. 186
March 2006
ISSN:1473-236X
ESTIMATING THE EFFECT OF PROJECTED HOUSEHOLD
COMPOSITION CHANGE ON PRODUCTION IN SCOTLAND
J.H.L. Dewhurst
Department of Economic Studies
University of Dundee
Dundee DD1 4HN
j.h.l.dewhurst@dundee.ac.uk
March 2006
Abstract
In this paper attention is directed at the effects of the ageing of the Scottish
population. Expenditure patterns vary with the average age of household members Data from
Family Spending is used to disaggregate the household column of the Scottish input-output
table into three sub-sectors (a) Younger households (Age of head of household less than 65), (b)
Mature households (Age of head of household between 65 and 74) and (c) Older households
(Age of head of household 75 or more). A comparison of the published Type II multipliers with
those using the disaggregated household sector is made. The second part of the paper uses
household projections produced by the Registrar General for Scotland to forecast the relative
changes that might be expected (ceteris paribus) in the three household expenditure columns.
Alterations in the relative frequency of each type of household will have implications for
individual industries. Holding total income constant, an increase in older households and a
decrease in younger households would increase final demand for some commodities and lower
it for others. Given the implicit multiplier effects, the industries that are relati