Expert Elicitation on the Relative Risks of
Processed Meat and Poultry Products
Presented by
Mary K. Muth, Shawn A. Karns, and Michaela C. Coglaiti
RTI International
Presented at
Public Meeting on Risk Based Inspection (RBI)—Expert Elicitation
June 26, 2007
U.S. Department of Agriculture, Washington, DC
3040 Cornwallis Road ■ P.O. Box 12194 ■ Research Triangle Park, NC 27709
Phone 919-541-7289
Fax 919-541-6683
E-mail muth@rti.org
RTI International is a trade name of
Research Triangle Institute
2
Presentation Outline
History of the expert elicitation for processed meat
and poultry products
Development and contents of the expert elicitation
worksheet
Recruitment and members of the expert elicitation
panel
Process for conducting the expert elicitation
Highlights of the expert elicitation results
3
Expert Elicitation History
2001: RTI conducted initial expert elicitation, ranking relative
risks of processes but not processed meat type (species).
2005: RTI conducted an expert elicitation on the relative risks
posed to public health by various types of processed meat and
poultry products, including meat type (species).
2006: FSIS held a public workshop on plans for implementing
risk-based inspection and received feedback on the 2005 expert
elicitation.
2007: FSIS contracted with RTI to conduct a new expert
elicitation with modifications to address comments on the 2005
expert elicitation.
4
Primary Modifications to the 2005 Expert
Elicitation
Experts were equally divided among individuals from
public health, academic institutions, and industry
Two additional worksheets were added to
z Include risk ranking for vulnerable consumers
z Address attribution of foodborne illness to
individual product categories
Scoring range was limited to 1 to 10 (instead of open-
ended scoring)
5
Expert Elicitation Worksheets:
Development and Contents (1)
RTI and FSIS held a series of conference calls to
discuss required modifications and additions to the
worksheets
Initial draft of the w