Judge Business School
(name)
(date)
Reshaping the Map of Asia:
China and ASEAN
ABFI Institute Perbanas Programme
3rd May 2010
Professor Peter Williamson
Page 2
Time To Re-Think ASEAN’s Regional and Global
Role?
Data Source: Asian Development Bank
Japan
Korea
China
PPP
Philippines
= US$ 200 Billion
Indonesia
Singapore
Taiwan
Malaysia
Thailand
HK
Australia
India
PPP
The View From Singapore:
“We must redouble our efforts in cooperation projects and
implement key programmes to retain the region’s strategic
influence.
At stake is maintaining ASEAN’s centrality in the regional
architecture”
Lee Hsien Loong, Prime Minister of Singapore
ASEAN Summit, Hanoi, 8th April 2010
Page 3
… Especially Given the Potential For A Different
World in 2050
(Large economies excluding China, US, India)
Page 4
GDP
$ Bill*
* Real terms, 2006 base
Data Source: Goldman Sachs 2007
Page 5
Has the World Passed a “Tipping Point”
Towards Emerging Markets?
(Even by 2005 They Had Surpassed The Developed Markets)
* Purchasing power parity
Data Source: International Monetary Fund
Developed
Emerging
… The Gap is Widening With Differential Real
Growth Rates
Page 6
Data Source: International Monetary Fund
% Real
GDP
Growth
Because US And European Growth Will Be
Constrained by Debt Burden and Higher Saving:
Page 7
Net Borrowing and Lending as a % of Global GDP
Borrowing
Lending
* Forecast
Source: IMF World Economic Outlook
Page 8
So Export Growth Will Likely Come From More
Trade With Emerging Economies
Emerging Economies Exports as a % of GDP
Particularly Growth in Asian Intra-Regional
Trade:
Page 9
0.0
10.0
20.0
30.0
40.0
50.0
60.0
70.0
China
Hong Kong
Indonesia
Korea
Malaysia
Philippines
Singapore
Taiwan
Thailand
Share Of Intra-Asian Trade in Total Trade
Data Source: Asian Development Bank
… And Capturing a Larger Share of East Asia’s
Emerging Value Network
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
Thailand
Philippines
Malaysia
Indonesia
NIEs
Japan
China
Page 10
Share of Intraregional Trade
Indonesia
5.