1(1) SPECIAL ARTICLE
Efficacy of Bomb Shelters: With Lessons From the
Hamburg Firestorm *
KENNETH A. LUCAS, MD, Phoenix, Ariz; JANE M. ORIENT, MD, Tucson, Ariz;
ARTHUR ROBINSON, PhD, Cave Junction, Ore; HOWARD MACCABEE, PhD, MD, Walnut Creek, Calif;
PAUL MORRIS, MD, Oakland, Calif; GERALD LOONEY, MD, Redondo Beach, Calif; and
MAX KLINGHOFFER, MD, Indialantic, Fla
ABSTRACT: Shelters for protection against the effects of nuclear weapons are often stated
to be useless, largely because of firestorms. Recent models purport to show that nuclear
weapons are more likely to cause fire storms than previously thought. These controversial
models are based on uncertain assumptions, which are difficult or impossible to test.
Regardless of the predictive validity of fire models, conclusions about the ability of
shelters to protect their occupants against firestorms, if they occur, are based primarily on
historical experience. A review of the original data from the Hamburg fire storm shows
that almost all persons in adequate shelters survived, contradicting a currently prevailing
belief that all died. The results of the strategic bombing during W orId War II and of
nuclear weapons tests show that a considerable level of population protection can be
achieved through attention to proper shelter design.
ON THE NIGHT of July 27-28, 1943, a terrible
fire storm was caused by Allied incendiary bomb
ing of the city of Hamburg, Germany. At the
time, an estimated 1.5 million people were in the
Hamburg metropolitan area; 470,000 were in the
damaged area, and 280,000 were in the 14 km2
(5 square miles) firestorm area. 1(plO) Of these
280,000 people, about 50,000, or 18%, were killed
in the attack. Thus about 230,000, or 82%, sur
vived. The chance of survival depended largely
upon the type of shelter.
Official reports by American, British, and
German authorities include definitive, detailed
statements by persons actually in Hamburg at the
time of the raids and by their contemporaries. All
of these sources are