Climate Change:
it’s a matter of degrees...
Energy for a CO2 constrained world
The American Institute of Physics: 2007 Industrial Physics Forum
Rosina Bierbaum, Dean and Professor, University of Michigan October 16, 2007
Take Home Messages
“Degrees” of warming matter
• Aggressive mitigation makes a difference
Committed to further climate changes
• Achieving the FCCC goal becomes harder as
temps increase
Its not just the averages that matter…
• Regional vulnerabilities, multiple stresses
and changing extreme events too
Portfolio Approach:
• Adaptation and Mitigation---integrate and
need MORE OF BOTH
Projected Impacts of Climate Change
IPCC, 20
World Primary Energy Supply by Source, 1850-2000
2005 was the hottest year on record;
the 13 hottest all occurred since 1990,
23 out of the 24 hottest since 1980.
J. Hansen et al., PNAS 103: 14288-293 (26 Sept 2006)
Green bars show 95%
confidence intervals
Global surface temperature since 1880
°C
8
The science is incredibly strong and verified
¾ Surface and tropospheric temperatures increasing
¾ Atmospheric water vapour increasing
¾ Ocean heat content increasing …
¾ … now directly linked to sea level rise
¾ Greenland and Antarctic Ice Sheets losing mass
¾ Glaciers and snow cover decreasing
¾ Arctic sea ice extent decreasing—VERY RAPIDLY!!!!
¾ Area of seasonally frozen ground decreasing
¾ More intense and longer droughts
¾ Frequency of heavy precipitation events increasing
¾ Extreme temperatures increasing
¾ Tropical cyclone intensity increasing
Unequivocal
Manning, IPCC, WGI, 2007
Summer sea-ice shrinkage 2005-2007
National Snow & Ice Data Center, 2007
From: Feeling Warmth, Subtropical Plants Move North
Source: New York Times, May 3, 2007
Winter
Summer
Annual
Annual
Winter
Summer
iter
By 2100
IPCC, WGI, Chapter 11
1 hour ozone (ppb)
Projected changes in extremes
A world vulnerable to Climate Change
•
Most impacts are will be negative, especially for the poorest, most
vulnerable nations.
•
Water resources, coastal infrastructure, health, agriculture, a