Declining Support for Tough Measures against Iran’s Nuclear Program: Global Poll Support for tough measures against Iran’s nuclear program has fallen in 13 out of 21 countries according to a new BBC World Service Poll. Compared to results from a June 2006 BBC World Service Poll, support for economic sanctions or military strikes has declined significantly, including in countries that were previously among the highest supporters of tough action. Support for these measures has dropped 10 points in Australia (52 per cent to 42 per cent), nine points in Britain (43 per cent to 34 per cent), nine points in Germany (46 per cent to 37 per cent), seven points in Canada (52 per cent to 45 per cent), six points in the United States (66 per cent to 60 per cent) and 30 points in Mexico (46 per cent to 16 per cent). Only three countries show an increase in support for economic sanctions or military strikes: an increase of nine points among Israelis (62 per cent to 71 per cent), six points among South Koreans (47 per cent to 53 per cent), and 12 points among Turkish respondents (21 per cent to 33 per cent). Most interviews were conducted following the release of the US National Intelligence Estimate that concluded Iran had stopped pursuing nuclear weapons in 2003. Across all 31 countries surveyed in the latest poll (the 21 tracking countries plus an additional 10 countries polled for the first time), most respondents oppose the use of economic sanctions or military strikes. Respondents were presented four options that the UN Security Council could use to address the fact that Iran continues to produce nuclear fuel in defiance of the UN Security Council resolution. The options of economic sanctions or military strikes were rejected in 27 out of 31 countries. Instead, the most preferred approaches are to either use only diplomatic efforts or not pressure Iran at all. On average 57 per cent favor diplomacy (43 per cent) or no pressure on Iran (14 per cent). Just one-in-three favor economic sanctions (26 per cent) or military strikes (8 per cent). The poll also found that there are conditions under which many people would be willing to accept Iran having a limited capacity to produce nuclear fuel. The question asked: “If Iran were to allow UN inspectors permanent and full access throughout Iran, to make sure it is not developing nuclear weapons, do you think Iran should or should not be allowed to produce nuclear fuel for producing electricity?” In 17 of the 31 countries more people favor than oppose the idea, while in 10 countries more are opposed and four countries are divided. Support is fairly strong in some of the countries in the forefront of the drive to stop Iran’s nuclear program, including the US (55 per cent), Britain (71 per cent) and France (56 per cent). On average 47 per cent are in favor while 36 per cent are opposed. The results are drawn from a survey of 32,039 adult citizens across 31 countries conducted for the BBC World Service by the international polling firm GlobeScan together with the Program on International Policy Attitudes (PIPA) at the University of Maryland. GlobeScan coordinated fieldwork between October 31, 2007 and January 25, 2008. Steven Kull, Director of PIPA comments, “It appears that people in many countries are interested in ramping down the confrontation with Iran, while still using UN inspectors to ensure that Iran is not developing nuclear weapons.” Participating Countries Note: In Chile, China, Egypt, Indonesia, the Philippines, Portugal, Turkey, and the countries of Central America urban samples were used. Please see page 10 for details. 2 Detailed Findings In three countries a majority today favors economic sanctions or military strikes to deal with Iran. These include Israel (sanctions 37 per cent, strikes 34 per cent), the United States (sanctions 45 per cent, strikes 15 per cent) and South Korea (sanctions 48 per cent, strikes 5 per cent). Canadians are divided between a strong approach (sanctions 35 per cent, strikes 10 per cent) and softer approaches (diplomacy 42 per cent, no pressure 6 per cent). In all other countries, the weight of opinion is towards the less aggressive measures of using only diplomatic efforts or not pressuring Iran at all. Support for allowing Iran to produce nuclear fuel for electricity, alongside a full program of UN inspections, is found not only in the US (55 per cent), Britain (71 per cent), and France (56 per cent), but also among Egyptians (86 per cent), Mexicans (79 per cent), Australians (64 per cent), Portuguese (59 per cent), Canadians (58 per cent), Italians (58 per cent), Kenyans (56 per cent), Indonesians (56 per cent) and Chinese (51 per cent). More modest support is found in Spain (49 per cent), Ghana (45 per cent), Nigeria (46 per cent), and Russia (33 per cent). Majorities oppose the idea in Israel (62 per cent), Philippines (60 per cent), Turkey (54 per cent), Japan (54 per cent) and South Korea (51 per cent). Half of Germans are opposed as are 38 per cent of Central Americans. Indians, Argentinians and Chileans are divided, with large numbers not providing an answer. In total 32,039 citizens in Argentina, Australia, Canada, Chile, China, Costa Rica, Egypt, El Salvador, France, Ghana, Germany, Great Britain, Guatemala, Honduras, India, Indonesia, Israel, Italy, Japan, Kenya, Mexico, Nicaragua, Nigeria, Panama, the Philippines, Portugal, Russia, South Korea, Spain, Turkey, and the United States were interviewed face-to-face or by telephone between October 31, 2007 and January 25, 2008. Polling was conducted for the BBC World Service by the international polling firm GlobeScan and its research partners in each country. In 13 of the 31 countries, the sample was limited to major urban areas. The margin of error per country ranges from +/-2.4 to 4.4 per cent. For more details, please see the Methodology section or visit www.globescan.com or www.worldpublicopinion.org. For media interviews with the participating pollsters, please contact: Doug Miller, President GlobeScan Incorporated, London +44 20 7253 1425 (Mobile: +44 78 999 77 000) Doug.Miller@GlobeScan.com Steven Kull, Director Program on International Policy Attitudes, Washington +1 202 232 7500 (Mobile: +1 301 254 7500) Skull@pipa.org GlobeScan Incorporated is a global public opinion and stakeholder research consultancy with offices in Toronto, London, and Washington. GlobeScan conducts custom research and annual tracking studies on global issues. With a research network spanning 50+ countries, 3 GlobeScan works with global companies, multilateral agencies, national governments, and non-government organizations to deliver research-based insights for successful strategies. The Program on International Policy Attitudes (PIPA) is a joint program of the Center on Policy Attitudes and the Center for International and Security Studies at the University of Maryland. PIPA undertakes research on attitudes in publics around the world on a variety of international issues and publishes the website/webzine WorldPublicOpinion.org. The BBC exists to enrich people’s lives with great programmes and services on television, radio and online that inform, educate and entertain. Its vision is to be the most creative, trusted organization in the world. BBC reporters and correspondents at home and abroad can be called on for expert coverage across a huge range of subject areas. With over sixty foreign bureaux, the BBC has the largest newsgathering operation in the world. BBC World Service provides international news, analysis and information in English and 32 other languages. 4 Questionnaire M6t. The United Nations Security Council has asked Iran to not produce nuclear fuel. If Iran continues to produce nuclear fuel, which one of the following do you think the United Nations Security Council should do? 01 Not pressure Iran 02 Use only diplomatic efforts 03 Impose economic sanctions on Iran 04 Authorize a military strike against Iran’s nuclear facilities VOLUNTEERED (DO NOT READ) 99 DK/NA M7. If Iran were to allow UN inspectors permanent and full access throughout Iran, to make sure it is not developing nuclear weapons, do you think Iran should or should not be allowed to produce nuclear fuel for producing electricity? 01 Should be allowed 02 Should not be allowed VOLUNTEERED (DO NOT READ) 03 Depends 99 DK/NA 5 Country-by-Country Results 6 7 8 9 Methodology Country Sample size (unweighted) Field dates Sample frame Survey methodology Type of sample Argentina 1,010 Nov 22 – Dec 04, 2007 18+ Face-to-face National Australia 1,000 Nov 28 – Dec 27, 2007 18+ Telephone National Canada 1,000 Nov 23 – Dec 22, 2007 18+ Telephone National Chile 1,000 Oct 31 – Nov 18, 2007 18+ Face-to-face Urban1 China 1,000 Dec 06 – Dec 25, 2007 18+ Telephone Urban2 Costa Rica 1,017 Dec 01 – Dec 13, 2007 18+ Face-to-face Urban3 Egypt 1,001 Nov 25 – Dec 07, 2007 18+ Face-to-face Urban4 El Salvador 1,013 Dec 01 – Dec 04, 2007 18+ Face-to-face Urban5 France 1,009 Dec 11 – Dec 19, 2007 15+ Telephone National Germany 1,007 Dec 12 – Dec 23, 2007 16-70 Telephone National Ghana 1,000 Dec 15 – Dec 26, 2007 18+ Face-to-face National Great Britain 1,000 Dec 04 – Jan 17, 2008 18+ Telephone National Guatemala 1,020 Dec 01 – Dec 12, 2007 18+ Face-to-face Urban6 Honduras 1,004 Dec 01 – Dec 11, 2007 18+ Face-to-face Urban7 India 1,103 Jan 18 – Jan 25, 2008 18+ Face-to-face Majority urban8 Indonesia 1,000 Dec 03 – Dec 20, 2007 17+ Face-to-face Urban9 Israel 511 Dec 10 – Dec 30, 2007 18+ Telephone National Italy 1,012 Dec 03 – Dec 06, 2007 18+ Telephone National Japan 1,773 Dec 08 – Dec 09, 2007 20+ Face-to-face National Kenya 1,000 Dec 13 – Dec 20, 2007 18-70 Face-to-face National Mexico 1,000 Nov 05 – Dec 30, 2007 18+ Face-to-face National Nicaragua 1,004 Dec 01 – Dec 10, 2007 18+ Face-to-face Urban10 Nigeria 1,000 Dec 01 – Dec 18, 2007 18+ Face-to-face National Panama 1,003 Dec 14 – Dec 17, 2007 18+ Face-to-face Urban11 Philippines 1,000 Nov 28 – Dec 13, 2007 18+ Face-to-face Urban12 Portugal 1,003 Dec 04 – Jan 07, 2008 17+ Telephone Urban13 Russia 1,005 Nov 22 – Dec 07, 2007 18+ Face-to-face National South Korea 1,031 Dec 06 – Dec 20, 2007 18+ Face-to-face National Spain 1,002 Nov 30 – Dec 10, 2007 18+ Telephone National Turkey 1,000 Dec 10 – Dec 31, 2007 15+ Face-to-face Urban14 USA 1,000 Dec 04 – Jan 11, 2008 18+ Telephone National 1In Chile the survey was conducted in Antofagasta, Arica, Calama, Chiguayante, Chillán, Concepción, Copiapó, Coquimbo, Coronel, Curicó, Gran Santiago (includes San Bernardo and Puente Alto), Iquique, La Serena, Linares, Los Angeles, Lota, Osorno, Ovalle, Puerto Montt, Quillota, Quilpué, Rancagua, San Antonio, Talca, Talcahuano, Temuco, Valdivia, Valparaíso, Villa Alemana, and Viña, 10 representing 74% of the total national adult population. 2In China the survey was conducted in Beijing, Beiliu, Chengdu, Dujiangyan, Feyang, Fuyang, Guangzhou, Hangzhou, Manzhouli, Quanzhou, Quijing, Shanghai, Shenyang, Shuangcheng, Wuhan, Xi’an, Xining, and Zhengzhou, representing 43% of the total national adult population. 3In Costa Rica the survey was conducted in n=36 cities/towns, representing 20% of the total national adult population. 4In Egypt the survey was conducted in urban areas of Cairo, Giza, Shobra Al Khema, and Alexandria representing 21% of the total national adult population. 5In El Salvador the survey was conducted in n=26 cities/towns, representing 30% of the total national adult population. 6In Guatemala the survey was conducted in n=13 cities/towns, representing 21% of the total national adult population. 7In Honduras the survey was conducted in n=15 cities/towns, representing 33% of the total adult population. 8In India, the survey was conducted in large metro centres (40% of interviews), cities (17%) and villages (43%) across 17 of the largest states comprising 91% of the national population. India’s population is approximately 30 percent urban. 9In Indonesia the survey was conducted in Bandung, Jakarta, Medan, Semarang, and Surabaya, representing 5% of the total national adult population. 10In Nicaragua the survey was conducted in n=12 cities/towns, representing 28% of the total national adult population. 11In Panama the survey was conducted in n=52 cities/towns, representing 41% of total urban adult population. 12In the Philippines the survey was conducted in the National Capital Region representing 12% of the total national adult population. 13In Portugal the survey was conducted in Almada, Amadora, Beja, Braga, Castelo Branco, Évora, Faro, Guarda, Leira, Lisboa, Loures, Oeiras, Porto, Santarém, Setubal, Vila Nova Famalica, Vila Nova Gaia, and Viseau, representing 20% of the total national adult population. 14In Turkey the survey was conducted in Adana, Ankara, Antalya, Bursa, Diyarbakir, Erzurum, Istanbul, Izmir, Konya, Samsun, and Zonguldak, representing 30% of the total national adult population. 11 Research Partners Country Research Institute Location Contact Argentina TNS Gallup Argentina Buenos Aires Constanza Cilley constanza.cilley@tns- gallup.com.ar +54 11 5218 2000 Australia GlobeScan Toronto Susan Hlady susan.hlady@globescan.com +1 416 969 3082 Canada GlobeScan Toronto Susan Hlady susan.hlady@globescan.com +1 416 969 3082 Chile MORI Chile Santiago Marta Lagos mlagos@rdc.cl +56 23344544 Costa Rica Dichter & Neira Costa Rica San Jose Rebeca Hernandez rhernandez@dichter- neira.com +506 225 9591 Egypt Attitude Market Research Cairo Mohamed Al Gendy mgendy@attitude-eg.com +202 22711262 El Salvador Dichter & Neira El Salvador San Salvador Karen Torres ktorres@dichter-neira.com +503 2298 4800 France Efficience 3 Paris and Reims Christian de Thieulloy christian.t@efficience3.com +33 3 2679 7589 Germany Ri*QUESTA GmbH Teningen Bernhard Rieder riquesta.rieder@t-online.de +49 (0)7641 934336 Ghana Business Interactive Consulting Limited Accra Razaaque Animashaun info@bigghana.com +233 21 783 140 Great Britain GlobeScan Toronto Susan Hlady susan.hlady@globescan.com +1 416 969 3082 Guatemala Dichter & Neira Guatemala Guatemala City Oscar Penagos openagos@dichter-neira.com 12 +502 2385 3905 Honduras Dichter & Neira Honduras San Pedro Sula Leo Neira Guerrini leoneira@dichter-neira.com +504 516 1165 India Team CVoter Noida Yashwant Deshmukh yashwant@teamcvoter.com +91 120 4247135 Indonesia Deka Marketing Research Jakarta Irma Malibari Putranto irma.putranto@deka- research.co.id +62 21 723 6901 Israel B.I. Cohen Institute for Public Opinion Research, Tel- Aviv University Tel-Aviv Anat Oren anatoren@post.tau.ac.il +03 6406766 / 03 6408963 Italy GfK Eurisko s.r.l. Milan and Rome Paolo Anselmi paolo.anselmi@eurisko.it +39 02 4380 9 1 Japan The Yomiuri Shimbun Tokyo Junichi Yamamoto mamo2091@yomiuri.com +81 3-3217-1963 Kenya Research Path Associates Limited Nairobi Jeremy Mwololo jeremy.mwololo@rpa.co.ke +254 020 2734770 Mexico Mund Américas Mexico City Daniel M. Lund dlund@mundgroup.com +5255 5584 3020 Nicaragua Dichter & Neira Panama City José Delvalle jdelvalle@dichter-neira.com +503 2298 4800 Nigeria Market Trends Research International, Nigeria Lagos J.O. Ebhomenye Mtrinigeria@research- intng.com +234 1 774 0386 / 234 1 775 0753 Panama Dichter & Neira Panama Panama City Leopoldo Neira M. lneira@dichter-neira.com +507 236 4000 Philippines M&S-Sigma Dos Philippines, Inc. Makati City Teodora M. Marasigan tmmarasigan@ms- sigmados.com 13 14 +632 8172780 / +63917 5108602 Portugal Sperantia Queijas Sandrine Lage slage@sperantia.pt +351 214 177 418 Russia CESSI Institute for Comparative Social Research Moscow Vladimir Andreenkov vladimir.andreenkov@cessi.ru +7 495 629 1506 South Korea East Asia Institute Seoul Jeong Han-wool hwjeong@eai.or.kr +82 2 2277 1683 Spain Sigma Dos Internacional Madrid Gines Garrido mrots@sigmados.com +34 91 360 0474 Turkey Yontem Research & Consultancy Istanbul Bülent Gündogmu info@yontemresearch.com +90 212 278 12 19 USA GlobeScan Toronto Susan Hlady susan.hlady@globescan.com +1 416 969 3082