Approved by the World Agricultural Outlook Board/USDA
FOP 07- 08
U.S. and India Dominate an Expanding
Despite a 1.0 million bale decrease from last month, China’s imports are still forecast to grow by 10
percent in 2008/09. The year-to-year growth is mainly because of steady domestic production and a 3-
percent increase in use. For August 2007 through May 2008, U.S. cotton has a 39 percent share of
China’s imports, while India accounted for 37 percent. The U.S. share is up 5 percentage points from
year-ago levels, while India’s share is up 9 percentage points. The United States should be in a favorable
position next year to capture the growth in China’s imports. While India has been able to expand total
exports and share to China in the last two years, growth in the next year will be limited. India’s exports
are forecast to remain flat because of tighter stocks, continued consumption growth, and a minimal
expansion of domestic production. Exports by other countries than India and the United States will grow
by only 1.3 percent, while U.S. exports are forecast to grow by 4.3 percent or 600,000 bales.
U.S. production for 2008/09 was lowered by 500,000 bales because of lower reported planted area and
continued drought conditions in west Texas. A significant decline of 1.0 million bales in production for
India for 2008/09 was caused by lower area as land is switched to other crops.
Overall, world stocks are projected to decline by 13 percent in 2008/09, contributing to the highest world
cotton prices in a decade.
World Markets and Trade
Summary of Changes in estimates and Forecasts from Last Month
(1,000 480 lb Bales and 1,000 Ha)
Country Mktg Year