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Late – 2006 Dollar Exchange Rate Impact on Inbound Tourism1
December 2006
Mr Chris Greenwood
Research Analyst
VisitScotland,
Ocean Point One
94 Ocean Drive
Edinburgh EH6 6JH
Email: chris.greenwood@visitscotland.com
Tel: 00 44 (0) 131 472 2389
Dr. Ian Yeoman
Scenario Planning Research Manager,
VisitScotland,
Ocean Point One
94 Ocean Drive
Edinburgh EH6 6JH
Email: ian.yeoman@visitscotland.com
Tel: 00 44 (0) 131 472 2388
1 This research bulletin has been prepared for VisitScotland and the Scottish tourism industry. No representation or
warranty is given (expressed or implied) as to its accuracy or the correctness of the information and of the opinions
contained in this report. The material should not be regarded as specific advice and no action should be taken with
reliance on it. Neither the authors nor VisitScotland accepts any liability whatsoever for any loss or damage in any way
or reliance placed upon the material. All of the events and portraits referred to within the scenarios are fictitious or
viewed in context. Publication date: December2006
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Introduction
On the 30th November 2006, Sterling reached its highest level against the US dollar in 14 years. During currency
trading, according to HSBC, sterling / dollar exchange rates touched $1.97, before retreating to $1.9626, a 0.8%
rise on the day. The excitement generated by the press on this news is partly due to the unexpected nature that
the exchange rate rise occurred. This level of currency activity is of obvious impact to currency traders. However,
what impact does it have on the UK economy and to Scottish Tourism?
The Impact of the $1.97 Dollar to Scottish Tourism
In response to the question in the introduction, the impact in the medium term (2 to 5 years) is negligible (subject
to there being no major shocks). The forecasts provided by Oxford Economic Forecasts and Royal Bank of
Scotland show that exchange rates wi