StatCrunch Users
1
Chapter 6 Project: A New Model for Earthquakes
Name _________________________
Name _____________________________
1. Background:
Faults are approximately planar breaks in the Earth's crust and mantle. Crustal
blocks moving quickly along a fault produce vibrations or waves, which radiate out in all
directions away from the fault and fault blocks. What we experience in an earthquake is
those vibrations along the surface of the earth. There are several non-traditional or new-
wave explanations of fault behavior, all based on some form of randomness and
unpredictability. This project focuses on one of these theories, known as self-organized
criticality.
Faults are considered to be entities that have organized themselves into a critical
state. Suppose a tiny amount of movement takes place along the fault. If the initial
movement dies out, then a tiny earthquake is produced. If the initial movement
propagates and grows and increases, a giant quake is produced. Despite many decades of
scientific study trying to predict earthquakes, earthquakes have been found to be
unpredictable; all predictors have failed to work. For more information about self-
organized criticality in theory and in nature, read How Nature Works by Per Bak (New
York: Springer-Verlag, 1996).
This project is designed to generate a population of artificial earthquakes, and to
compare the model to real earthquakes. The earthquake generator is called a cellular
automaton, but we prefer the name bingo box. The bingo box generates "bingoquakes."
2. Pre-project preparation
Before you begin, make sure that your group has the following papers:
•
“Bingo Box” … 1 copy
•
“Raw Data” … 1 copy
•
“Group Summary Data” … 2 copies
•
“New Madrid scatterplot” …2 copies
This project will make use of a random number generator. Consult your
calculator manual and/or ask your instructor about generating random numbers.
Alternatively, you can use two dice of different colors. In thi