386-785-1585 rfpco @ag-financial.com Also presented by Ag Financial Strategies
BC3 DOW (Dow Jones Industrials Stock Index cash)
Expectation: Bearish for 2008.
Strategy: Buy only. Follow 3 yr Business Cycle trend for long term trend following.
Market: Use ETFs such as Proshares.com or correlating funds. Reversals could be used
for hedge for risk protection of a portfolio. BC3 has 512% cumulative gain since 1991
with no leverage. 87% accurate. Reduced risk during 2000 to 2002 bear market.
BC1 DOW (Dow Jones Industrials Stock Index cash)
Strategies: Buy only, long and short and short term hedge (sell only). BC1 follows a trend
that is similar to model Level 1 intra year and intra 3 yr Business cycle trends. An
algorithm is used to create a trend reversal price. Goal is for 3 trades per year but could
range 2 to 6 per year dependent upon trend volatility. Reversals could be used for risk
protection of a portfolio. Contact us for further information. Long and short performance
was +13.8% as of end of January versus a loss for a buy and hold from April 2007. +5%
for buy only for same time period. Research has suggested the program sold ahead of
1987 crash and 1998 mini crash and was out of the market 25% of time from 1998 into
2007. And during that test period the program slightly out performed a buy and hold
strategy. Performance such as this suggests it was out of the market (not long) during
times of poor stock market performance.
Stock Market Analysis
• Multi decadal trends are up from 1974 and 1932. These trends reversed in 2000
for the NASDAQ 100 and should not reverse to bullish until early next decade.
For some indexes such as the DOW, SP500, Russell 2000, these trends should
reverse 2009 to 2011 for a bear market into early next deca