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IHS Markit sees India's FY22 GDP growth at 9.6%
amid rising Covid cases
Those at Nomura, too, expect the pain in the economy to grow given the recent measures to curb the
pandemic. However, they believe that the overall impact will be muted and be for the short-term
On-going lockdown and mobility curbs coupled with fears of an extension – time-wise and across more Indian
cities – have led to economists tweak their gross domestic growth (GDP) projections for fiscal 2021-22 (FY22).
In a recent note, those at IHS Markit suggest that they expect the Indian economy (as measured by GDP) to grow
at 9.6 percent in FY22. Maharashtra’s lockdown, it said, represents a significant dampener on growth, as the state
accounts for 16 percent of the national GDP.
“IHS Markit forecasts 9.6 percent real GDP growth in FY 2021, though the wider restrictions forecast above
indicate that there is scope for further reductions in economic growth, as these measures would mean income and
job losses for workers alongside significant output and revenue losses for firms, particularly in the services sector
and the informal economy,” wrote Deepa Kumar, deputy's head, Asia-Pacific, IHS Markit in a co-authored note
Hanna Luchnikava-Schorsch, their principal economist for the Asia Pacific and Angus Lam, their senior economist.
With a number of states announcing an extension of curbs, IHS Markit feels more states are likely to follow suit,
including West Bengal, Odisha, Chhattisgarh, Uttar Pradesh, and Jharkhand. Following Maharashtra and Delhi
that have announced a lockdown and mobility curbs, Karnataka, too, followed similar measures for 14 days
starting April 27.
Those at Nomura, too, expect the pain in the economy to grow given the recent measures to curb the pandemic.
However, they believe that the overall impact will be muted and be for the short-term as compared to 2020 when
all economic activity came to a standstill for a few weeks.
“We also see signs of the economic pain spreading to the wider economy (p