Report to the Prime Minister
Economic Forecast Study
of the Nuclear Power Option
Jean-Michel Charpin
Planning Commissioner
Benjamin Dessus
Director
of the Ecodev at the CNRS
René Pellat
High Commissioner
for Atomic Energy
Rapporteurs
Nicole Jestin-Fleury
Jacques Percebois
July 2000
Report to Prime Minister
Economic Forecast Study
of the Nuclear Power Option
Jean-Michel Charpin
Planning Commissioner
Benjamin Dessus
Director
of the Ecodev at the CNRS
René Pellat
High Commissioner
for Atomic Energy
Rapporteurs
Nicole Jestin-Fleury
Jacques Percebois
July 2000
Contents
INTRODUCTION............................................................................................ 15
CHAPTER 1 – THE LEGACY FROM THE PAST
FOR FRANCE................................................................................................. 21
1.
The latitude associated with the fleet of reactors............................... 21
2.
Presentation of the current fleet of nuclear plants ............................ 27
3.
Materials balance and economic balance associated
with the current fleet of nuclear plants .............................................. 30
3.1. Methodology ..................................................................................................... 30
3.2.
Critical examination of the selected hypotheses................................................ 40
3.3. Material balances associated with the scenarios................................................ 41
3.4.
Economic balances associated with the scenarios ............................................. 54
CHAPTER 2 – THE INTERNATIONAL SITUATION................................. 65
1.
The dynamics of nuclear energy across the world............................. 68
1.1.
The existing fleet ............................................................................................... 73
1.2.
Public research and devevopment (R & D) programmes .................................. 81
2.
The emergence of environmental problems on a global scale .......... 84
2.1.
International