2010-11
Economic and
Market Outlook
Presented by:
Fred Ketchen
Warren Jestin
Vincent Delisle
Camilla Sutton
December 1, 2009
Warren Jestin
SVP & Chief Economist
From Recession to Recovery
December 1, 2009
2010-11 Economic Outlook
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
China
India
Brazil Mexico Russia
2008
2009e
2010f
2011f
Emerging Nations Remain Growth Leaders
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
Canada
U.S.
Euro-
zone
Japan
2008
2009e
2010f
2011f
G7 Set for an Uneven Recovery
real GDP, average annual % change
The Global Economy Is Beginning to Revive
real GDP, average annual % change
Source: Scotia Economics, Global Insight.
The Freefall in U.S. Housing and Autos is Over . . .
0
3
6
9
12
15
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
0.4
0.8
1.2
1.6
2.0
2.4
months’ supply
Housing Starts
(RHS)
mn units
Housing Starts & Inventories
Inventories (LHS)
Vehicle Sales & Inventories
25
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
70
75
80
85
90
95
100
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
US New
Vehicle Sales
(RHS)
US Dealer
Inventories
(LHS)
days’ supply
millions of units
Source: Scotia Economics, Global Insight.
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
… but U.S. Private & Public Financial Strains Remain Intense
U.S. Federal Revenues Slide
Rising U.S. Foreclosures
-60
-50
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
12-month moving sum,
y/y % change
Personal
Income
Tax
Total
Revenues
Corporate
Income Tax
Source: U.S. Treasury.
Source: Bloomberg.
Subprime
Foreclosures
Prime Foreclosures
% of total loans
-30
-25
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
JAPAN
ITALY
GERMANY
FRANCE
US
RUSSIA
CANADA
UK
MEXICO
BRAZIL
INDIA
CHINA
Industrial Production
y/y % change, 2009Q2
Source: Scotia Economics,
Global Insight.
Price Fluctuations Since January 2008
High
Low
US$/bbl
145.29
76.32
Oil
33.87
High
Low
US$/mmbtu
13.58
Natural
Gas
Low
High
US$/lb
4.08
3.09
Copper 1.26
Low
High
US$/lb
1.49
0.85
0.57
Aluminum
4.87
90.00
2.95
5.50
2.51
High
Low
US$/lb
Nickel 4.00
0.91
7.27
15.11
7.45
Blue bar represents price at November 30, 2009.
Red bars represe