ESTIMATED COCAINE DEPARTING SOUTH AMERICA
TO THE UNITED STATES
MT OF COCAINE
TO DEPART SOURCE ZONE
FOR US (EXPORT
DEMAND-SIDE NEEDED TO
DEPART SOURCE ZONE
FOR US (EXPORT
DEMAND ESTIMATE OF
SOURCE ZONE (EXPORT
- - --
Figure I. Estimated Amount of Cocaine Departing South America to the United States, 1996-2002.
METHODOLOGY FOR ESTIMATING THE MAGNITUDE OF COCAINE FLOW
This assessment uses a methodology combining both supply-side and demand-side analyses from pro-
duction, consumption, and seizure data for estimating the amount of cocaine departing South America.
This approach provides an estimate of the magnitude of the drug flow confronting interdiction assets in
the Transit Zone and distinguishes the amount bound for US versus non-US markets. In 2002, about 544
metric tons were estimated to have departed South America for the United States and an additional 3 16
metric tons for non-US markets. Not all cocaine reached its intended markets due to losses en route such
as seizures and consumption.
ANNUAL ASSESSMENT OF COCAINE MOVEMENT FOR 2002
Counterdrug forces scored a major achievement in 2002 by cutting Andean coca
cultivation by 8 percent by the end of 2002 through effective eradication efforts in
Colombia. Although traflckers still were able to meet world demand during 2002,
increasing stress between supply and demand may appear in late 2003 in either
retail price increases or falling purity levels or both. Sustaining this success will
require strong counterdrug efforts throughout the Source and Transit Zones in
2003 as traflckers and coca growers adapt to counterdrug programs.
Significant Hard-hitting eradication in four of Colombia's key coca growing areas reduced the
DeYelopmentS coca crop 15 percent at the end of 2002-the
first decline observed in Colombia's
crop in a decade.
Colombia reportedly sprayed over 38 percent more area in 2002 than in 2001,
resulting in drastic reductions in coca