CBO
A
R E P O R T
Estimated Impact of the American Recovery and
Reinvestment Act on Employment and
Economic Output From
April 2010 Through June 2010
August 2010
CONGRESSIONAL BUDGET OFFICE
SECOND AND D STREETS, S.W.
WASHINGTON, D.C. 20515
Pub. No. 4201
A
R E P O R T
CBO
Estimated Impact of the American
Recovery and Reinvestment Act on
Employment and Economic Output from
April 2010 Through June 2010
August 2010
The Congress of the United States O Congressional Budget Office
CBO
Preface
The American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009 (ARRA) contains provisions
that are intended to boost economic activity and employment in the United States.
Section 1512(e) of the law requires the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) to comment
on reports filed by recipients of ARRA funding that detail the number of jobs funded
through their activities. This CBO report fulfills that requirement. It also provides CBO’s
estimates of ARRA’s overall impact on employment and economic output in the second
quarter of calendar year 2010. Those estimates—which CBO considers more comprehensive
than the recipients’ reports—are based on evidence from similar policies enacted in the past
and on the results of various economic models.
Benjamin Page of CBO’s Macroeconomic Analysis Division wrote the report under
the supervision of Robert Dennis and William Randolph. Jared Brewster, Mark Lasky,
and Joshua Shakin contributed to the analysis. Kate Kelly edited the report,
Maureen Costantino prepared it for publication, Chris Howlett proofread it, Monte Ruffin
printed it, and Linda Schimmel handled the distribution. This report, along with previous
reports on the topic, is available on CBO’s Web site (www.cbo.gov).
Douglas W. Elmendorf
Director
August 2010
CBO
Contents
Measuring ARRA’s Impact Using Recipients’ Reports
2
Measuring ARRA’s Impact Using Economic Models and Historical Data
4
CBO’s Modeling Approach
4
Change from CBO’s Previous Estimates of the Impact of ARRA
8
Appendix: Evidence on the Economic Effects of Fiscal Stim