Peter Lee, Chief Technical Analyst, firstname.lastname@example.org, 212-713-8888, ext. 01
Jonathan Beck, Technical Analyst, email@example.com, 212-713-8888, ext. 02
Wealth Management Research
30 July 2010
Technical ETF Performance Table
Domestic Exchange-Traded Funds Technical Review
This report has been prepared by UBS Financial Services Inc. (UBS FS) and UBS AG.
Analyst certification and required disclosures begin on page 17.
The objective of this report is to review the technical conditions of the
more actively traded domestic Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs). We then
correlate this report with our broader macro market and sector analyses. In
this review, we provide updates on various technical indicators including
10-week and 30-week moving averages, intermediate-term trends and
important technical support and resistance levels. We try to identify
potential trading/investment opportunities and downside risks in various
key domestic markets. The following are technical commentaries, and not
necessarily Buy or Sell recommendations.
Note: All last sale prices are as of 29 July 2010.
Major Stock Indexes – We believe there are 3 possible scenarios that can
unfold this year for SPX/SPY. Scenario 1: Continue with its Neutral trading
range trend as defined by a tight trading band between 1131.23-
1150.45/113.20-115.15 and 1,010-1,040/101-104. The odds/probabilities
of this scenario developing this year are 40% and possibly increasing to 50%
if we get a poor or non-confirmation monthly close for July. We believe this
is the most popular scenario and is street consensus view. A disciplined
tactical trading approach works best for trading accounts and we favour
income producing and conservative investment strategies for investors.
Scenario 2: Selling resumes and marginal new lows are recorded this year.
The basis for this call is the recent July bounce (10.89%) is another technical
oversold rally that will begin to fade into the Summer to early Fall resulting in
downside targets to 950-975/95-