Economic Analysis of the Potential Impact of Sirex noctilio,
With Emphasis on Pines in the Southeastern United States
USDA Forest Service
Forest Health Protection
• Sirex noctilio, a woodwasp native to Europe, Asia and north Africa, was
first found in New York in February, 2005. Delimiting surveys have found
it in five counties in New York and recently in Ontario, Canada.
• There has been significant mortality of North American pines planted in
other countries infested with this woodwasp.
• Although it is not known what impacts Sirex will have on the forests of
North America, there is concern that it could cause mortality and economic
• This economic analysis assumed that Sirex would spread from the current
New York infestation at 25 miles/year and take 55 years to infest the entire
• A current estimate of sawtimber and pulpwood values were used, and all
future values were discounted to the present using a 4% discount rate.
• At a 10% mortality threshold, in the South, there would be 244 million
square feet lost valued at $1.9 billion dollars; in the total infested area, 360
million square feet and $2.9 billion would be lost.
If mortality reaches 50%, losses would reach 1.4 billion square feet and
$11 billion lost in the South, and 2.1 billion square feet and $17 billion in
the infested area.
Contacts: Bob Rabaglia (703 605 5338) and Joe Lewis (703 605 5339)
A fall 2004 collection of a female woodwasp in a New York survey trap was
identified in February 2005 as Sirex noctilio. Infested red and Scots pines were
subsequently found in nearby Oswego, NY later that spring. Delimitation
trapping surveys conducted in summer and fall 2005 recovered S. noctilio
specimens in 5 counties around Oswego, NY. In late fall of 2005, it was
announced that S. noctilio was recovered from two locations in Ontario, Canada,
approximately 100 miles from the New York infestation.