D-4468-2
1
COUNTERINTUITIVE BEHAVIOR
OF SOCIAL SYSTEMS1
by
JAY W. FORRESTER2
ABSTRACT
This paper addresses several social concerns: population trends; quality of
urban life; policies for urban growth; and the unexpected, ineffective, or
detrimental results often generated by government programs.
Society becomes frustrated as repeated attacks on deficiencies in social
systems lead only to worse symptoms. Legislation is debated and passed with
great hope, but many programs prove to be ineffective. Results are often far short
of expectations. Because dynamic behavior of social systems is not understood,
government programs often cause exactly the reverse of desired results.
The field of system dynamics now can explain how such contrary results
happen. Fundamental reasons cause people to misjudge behavior of social
systems. Orderly processes in creating human judgment and intuition lead people
to wrong decisions when faced with complex and highly interacting systems.
Until we reach a much better public understanding of social systems, attempts to
develop corrective programs for social troubles will continue to be disappointing.
This paper cautions against continuing to depend on the same past
approaches that have led to present feelings of frustration. New methods
developed over the last 30 years will lead to a better understanding of social
systems and thereby to more effective policies for guiding the future.
1 This paper was first copyrighted © 1971 by Jay W. Forrester. It is based on testimony for the
Subcommittee on Urban Growth of the Committee on Banking and Currency, U.S. House of
Representatives, on October 7, 1970. The original text appeared in the January, 1971, issue
of the Technology Review published by the Alumni Association of the Massachusetts
Institute of Technology. All figures are taken from World Dynamics by Jay W. Forrester,
Pegasus Communications, Waltham MA. Updated March, 1995
2 Professor, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, MA, USA
Copyright © 1995
Jay W. Forrester