Chart 1
Refinancing Indexes for California and the US
and the Conventional Mortgage Interest Rate
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
Percent
’92=100
Mortgage Rate
U.S.
Refinancing
California
Refinancing
Chart 2
Mortgage Defaults and Median Home Prices in California
140
145
150
155
160
165
170
175
180
185
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
0
10000
20000
30000
40000
50000
60000
70000
80000
90000
100000
Defaults
Home Prices
$ Thousands
Chart 3
Dynamic Response Functions
for Real Housing Prices
-0.5
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
3.5
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15
year
Response to transitory shock to residual
Response to permanent shock to fundamental price
Chart 4
Actual and Predicted House Price Changes
for Los Angeles County
-0.15
-0.10
-0.05
0.00
0.05
0.10
0.15
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
Actual
Predicted
Current effect of change in
fundamental price
Chart 5
Between-area Migration and Unemployment Rate Differentials
Migration (left scale)
Unemployment rate differential (right scale)
Sacramento
-1
0
1
2
3
198619871988198919901991199219931994199519961997199819992000-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
Rest of California
-2
-1
0
1
2
198619871988198919901991199219931994199519961997199819992000-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
San Francisco
-3
-2
-1
0
1
198619871988198919901991199219931994199519961997199819992000-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
Los Angeles
-3
-2
-1
0
1
198619871988198919901991199219931994199519961997199819992000-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2