ECONOMIC OUTLOOK
No. 87
Press Conference
Paris, 26 May 2010
10h45
Angel Gurría
Secretary General
Pier Carlo Padoan
Chief Economist and Deputy Secretary General
For a video link to the press conference and related material:
www.oecd.org/OECDEconomicOutlook
2
Summary of projections
2009
2010
2011
Q4 / Q4
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
2009
2010
2011
Per cent
Real GDP growth
United States
-2.4
3.2
3.2
2.2
5.6
3.2
3.4
2.8
2.7
3.1
3.4
3.5
3.7
0.1
3.0
3.4
Japan
-5.2
3.0
2.0 -0.5
3.8
5.2
2.2
1.7
1.9
2.0
2.2
2.3
2.4 -1.4
2.7
2.2
Euro area
-4.1
1.2
1.8
1.7
0.5
0.9
2.3
1.5
1.6
1.5
1.9
2.1
2.2 -2.1
1.5
1.9
Total OECD
-3.3
2.7
2.8
2.4
3.7
2.8
2.9
2.4
2.5
2.7
3.0
3.1
3.2 -0.6
2.7
3.0
Inflation1
year-on-year
United States
0.2
1.6
1.0 -0.7
1.2
2.0
1.9
1.5
1.2
1.0
1.0
1.0
1.0
Japan
-1.4
-0.7
-0.3 -2.3 -2.0 -1.1 -0.9 -0.5 -0.2 -0.4 -0.3 -0.3 -0.3
Euro area
0.3
1.4
1.0 -0.4
0.4
1.1
1.5
1.6
1.3
1.1
1.0
0.9
0.9
Total OECD
0.6
1.6
1.3
0.0
0.9
1.5
1.7
1.7
1.6
1.4
1.3
1.3
1.3
Unemployment rate2
United States
9.3
9.7
8.9
9.7 10.0
9.7
9.8
9.8
9.6
9.3
9.0
8.7
8.4
Japan
5.1
4.9
4.7
5.4
5.2
5.0
4.9
4.9
4.8
4.8
4.8
4.7
4.7
Euro area
9.4 10.1 10.1
9.6
9.8
9.9 10.1 10.2 10.2 10.2 10.2 10.0
9.9
Total OECD
8.1
8.5
8.2
8.4
8.5
8.5
8.5
8.6
8.5
8.4
8.3
8.1
8.0
World trade growth
-11.0 10.6
8.4 15.5 11.5 13.5
8.9
8.0
8.1
8.5
8.6
8.7
8.7 -2.8
9.6
8.6
Current account balance 3
United States
-2.9
-3.8
-4.0
Japan
2.8
3.3
3.5
Euro area
-0.3
0.3
0.8
Total OECD
-0.7
-0.8
-0.7
Fiscal balance3
United States
-11.0 -10.7
-8.9
Japan
-7.2
-7.6
-8.3
Euro area
-6.3
-6.6
-5.7
Total OECD
-7.9
-7.8
-6.7
Short-term interest rate
United States
0.9
0.5
2.4
0.7
0.4
0.4
0.3
0.4
0.8
1.3
1.9
2.8
3.7
Japan
0.3
0.2
0.2
0.3
0.2
0.2
0.3
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
Euro area
1.2
0.7
1.9
0.9
0.7
0.7
0.6
0