ASEAN’S “BLACK SWANS”
International Master in Development, Innovation & Change( MiDIC )
Department of Economics
University of Bologna, Italy
WHAT DOES MEAN BY ‘BLACK SWAN’?
• Black Swan means as per Nassim Nicholas Telab wrote in
‘The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly
undirected and unpredicted, a
• The Rise of Internet
• The Personal Computer
• World War - I
• September 11, 2001 US attack
WHAT WERE ASEAN’S ‘BLACK SWANS’:
• Asian Financial Crisis 1997
• The 2006 Coup in Thailand
• The Upheaval and Repression in
Burma(Myanmar) in 2007
• The Electoral Losses of Malaysia’s
Ruling Coalition in March 2008
• Cyclone Nargis’s Destruction 2008
1. ASIAN FINANCIAL CRISIS 1997
Countries most affected by the Asian Crisis.
Reasons of Asian Financial Crisis
• Thai Baht collapsed due to Thai Govt. ‘s decision
to float its currency and hang out it with USD to
sustain the real estate.
• Burden of foreign debt made the country to face
the bankrupt even before its currency collapsed.
• Thai collapsed made slumping in currency,
devalued stock market and other asset prices
and a steep rise in private debt in Asian Economy.
Change in GNP
GNP in USD BN Jun 1997
GNP in USD BN Jul 1998
Change in Exchange Rate
South Korean won
Exchange Rate Jul 98
Exchange Rate Jun 97
2. 2006 Thai Coup D'état
Thailand’s Political Crisis-
The Royal Thai Army Declared Martial Law
Source: Bangkok Post, 20th Sep 2006
Reasons Behind The Political Crisis
• Thaksin govt.’s alleged creation of an ‘unprecedented rift in
society’, corruption, nepotism, interference in independent
agencies and insulting the king.
• Thaksin’s alleged vote buying, plan to provoke violence and
weakening of the military.
• Two month after the mar