Executive summary
1
Analysis results
3
Chinese price changes
4
Chinese dominance
4
Peril for Mexico, CBI and Africa
6
2005 – How much will China take?
7
Impact on U.S. textile and apparel sector 10
Impact on other countries
11
Why China is so dominant
12
What can be done?
13
Conclusion
15
Appendices
17
The American Textile Manufacturers Institute
1130 Connecticut Ave, NW
Washington DC 20036
202-862-0500 / f: 202-862-0570
www.atmi.org
The China Threat to
World Textile and
Apparel Trade
1
Executive Summary
The following report is a 22 page analysis of Chinese import increases and price shifts in 29 quota de-
controlled categories since January 1, 2002. It concludes that if China follows the same pattern in 2005,
when the bulk of its quotas will be removed, then
China’s share of the U.S. textile and apparel market
will rise to over two-thirds of the U.S. market within
24 months.
If this occurs, the result will be the largest wave of job
losses and plant closures in U.S. textile and apparel
history and will likely result in the elimination of
textiles and apparel as a major manufacturing employer
in the United States. Total U.S. textile and apparel
job losses from 2004-6 could reach 630,000, with
over 1,300 textile plants closing in the United States
over a three-year period.
Job losses in the United States will be only a fraction of
those that will occur overseas as an estimated $42 billion in export orders from other countries shift to
China. This would probably represent one of the largest short-term transfers of wealth in the history of the
developing world.
A large number of countries, from Mexico to South Africa,
from Bangladesh to Haiti, from the Philippines to Turkey,
depend on exports of textiles and apparel to the U.S. market
for much of their foreign exchange, not to mention the
livelihoods of millions of their workers. The