Supporting your commitment to excellence
© Dr Rod Jones (2002)
1
Estimating mortuary capacity: Sensitivity analysis on
mortuary occupancy & turn-away
Dr Rodney Jones (ACMA)
Healthcare Analysis & Forecasting
www.hcaf.biz or hcaf_rod@yahoo.co.uk
Executive Summary
Deaths per annum in the UK are forecast to decline until 2012 as the members of the
post war baby boom enter old age. An increase is then forecast such that deaths in
2024 will return to the level seen in 1995.
Current demand at the RBBH should therefore reduce from current levels over the
next ten years followed by a return to the current level in around 2020. Deaths during
1999 and 2000 can therefore be used as a baseline estimate applicable to the next 20
years.
The very high demand for mortuary space seen over the millennium period represents
a maximum possible case for three reasons:
The peak in deaths occurred during the interval between Christmas day and the
New Year. This has a frequency of 7 years in 11.
The peak in deaths was the second highest since 1989. Such high years occur at a
frequency of 2 years in 11.
There was an extra day millennium holiday
The first two factors combine to give a 1 in 10 chance of occurrence while the extra
day holiday only occurs once in 1,000 years. Maximum demand for up to 80 or
perhaps 90 spaces is therefore likely in around once every ten years.
UK deaths per annum
590,000
600,000
610,000
620,000
630,000
640,000
650,000
660,000
670,000
680,000
19
70
19
72
19
74
19
76
19
78
19
80
19
82
19
84
19
86
19
88
19
90
19
92
19
94
19
96
19
98
20
00
20
02
20
04
20
06
20
08
20
10
20
12
20
14
20
16
20
18
20
20
Supporting your commitment to excellence
© Dr Rod Jones (2002)
2
The maximum duration of this peak demand for spaces is 14 days. Such an extended
period of high demand has only happened twice in 12 years.
A count of occupied spaces over the period April-99 to June-01 shows that demand is
mostly below 40 spaces, occasionally in the range 40 to 50 spaces