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Environment
Atmospheric Environment ] (]]]]) ]]]–]]]
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Estimation of vehicular emission inventories in China
from 1980 to 2005
Hao Cai, Shaodong Xie
College of Environmental Sciences and Engineering, State Key Joint Laboratory of Environmental Simulation and Pollution Control,
Peking University, Beijing 100871, PR China
Received 6 April 2007; received in revised form 7 July 2007; accepted 9 August 2007
Abstract
Multi-year inventories of vehicular emissions at a high spatial resolution of 40 km 40 km were established in China
using the GIS methodology for the period 1980–2005, based on provincial statistical data from yearbooks regarding
vehicles and roads, and on the emission factors for each vehicle category in each province calculated by COPERT III
program. Results showed that the emissions of CH4, CO, CO2, NMVOC, NOx, PM10, and SO2 increased from 5, 1066,
19 893, 169, 174, 26, and 16 thousand tons in 1980 to 377, 36 197, 674 629, 5911, 4539, 983, and 484 thousand tons in 2005
at an annual average rate of 19%, 15%, 15%, 15%, 14%, 16%, and 15%, respectively. Statistical analysis of vehicular
emissions and GDP showed that they were well positively correlated, which revealed that increase of pollutant emissions
has been accompanying the growth of GDP. Spatial distribution of pollutant emissions was rather unbalanced: over three-
quarters of the total emissions concentrated in developed regions of China’s southeastern, northern and central areas
covering only 35.2% of China’s territory, while the remaining emissions were distributed over the southwestern,
northwestern and northeastern regions covering as much as 64.8% of the territory. In 2005, the Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei
region, the Yangtze River Delta, and the Pearl River Delta covering only 2.3%, 2.2%, and 1.9%, respectively, of the
territory, generated about 10%, 19%, and 12%, respectively, of the total emissions. Since