The author(s) shown below used Federal funds provided by the U.S.
Department of Justice and prepared the following final report:
Development of Crime Forecasting and Mapping
Systems for Use by Police
This report has not been published by the U.S. Department of Justice.
To provide better customer service, NCJRS has made this Federally-
funded grant final report available electronically in addition to
traditional paper copies.
Opinions or points of view expressed are those
of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect
the official position or policies of the U.S.
Department of Justice.
Development of Crime Forecasting and
Mapping Systems for Use by Police
Wilpen L. Gorr
February 9, 2005
H. John Heinz III School of Public Policy and Management
Carnegie Mellon University
This document is a research report submitted to the U.S. Department of Justice. This report has not
been published by the Department. Opinions or points of view expressed are those of the author(s)
and do not necessarily reflect the official position or policies of the U.S. Department of Justice.
This report provides the results from the second of two grants funded by the
National Institute of Justice for research on the new field of crime forecasting. This
second grant replicates results from the first grant using new data, including crime data
from a second city, and develops and evaluates advanced crime forecasting models.
Our test bed for comparing and evaluating forecast methods and models now
includes 6 million offense incident reports and CAD calls from Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania
and Rochester, New York which we have processed into monthly time series data over
the period 1990 through 2001 and five geographies (census tracts, 4,000 foot grid cells,