On the heels of disappointing US unemployment figures for February 2009, the Conference
Board ETI (Employment Trends Index) fell sharply to 91.0, decreasing 3.2% from the January
revised figure of 94.0, and down 21.7% from February 2008.
Since February 2008, the ETI has declined faster than at any other time in its 35-year history,
writes Retailer Daily.
Recent news on consumer employment, confidence and spending statistics have been mixed,
with unemployment up and confidence down while spending has recently trended upward. The
US unemployment rate hit 8.1% in February 2009. Also in February 2009, the Conference Board
Consumer Confidence Index reached an all-time low of 25.0. However, in January 2009, the
Department of Commerce reported that consumer spending increased $56.4 billion, or 0.6%,
while disposable personal income increased $183 billion, or 1.7%. Personal saving as a
percentage of disposable personal income also increased to 5% in January, compared with 3.9%
in December.
Despite the recent Department of Commerce report on consumer spending, Gad Levanon, senior
economist at the Conference Board, said ETI results suggest spending is not due for a rebound in
the near term. “As job losses persist, the drop in overall earnings makes a rebound in consumer
spending unlikely for the next few months,” said Levanon. “The decline in employment will only
moderate once companies anticipate some revival in domestic and global economic activity.”
The index is down in all eight aggregated labor market indicators:
Percentage of respondents who say they find “jobs hard to get” (The Conference Board
Consumer Confidence Survey)
Initial claims for unemployment insurance (US Department of Labor)
Percentage of firms with positions not able to fill right now (National Federation of
Independent Business)
Number of employees hired by the temporary-help industry (US Bureau of Labor
Statistics)
Part-time workers for economic reasons (US Bureau of Labor Statistics)
Job openings (US Bureau