CBO
A
R E P O R T
Estimated Impact of the American
Recovery and Reinvestment Act on
Employment and Economic Output from
January 2010 Through March 2010
May 2010
CONGRESSIONAL BUDGET OFFICE
SECOND AND D STREETS, S.W.
WASHINGTON, D.C. 20515
Pub. No. 4136
A
R E P O R T
CBO
Estimated Impact of the American
Recovery and Reinvestment Act on
Employment and Economic Output from
January 2010 Through March 2010
May 2010
The Congress of the United States O Congressional Budget Office
CBO
Preface
The American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009 (ARRA) contains a variety of
provisions intended to boost economic activity and employment in the United States. Section
1512(e) of the law requires the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) to comment on the
reports filed by certain recipients of funding under ARRA that detail how many jobs were cre-
ated or retained through funded activities. This CBO report fulfills that requirement. It also
provides CBO’s estimates of ARRA’s overall impact on employment and economic output in
the first quarter of calendar year 2010. Those estimates—which CBO considers more com-
prehensive than the recipients’ reports—are based on evidence from similar policies enacted in
the past and on the results of various economic models.
Benjamin Page of CBO’s Macroeconomic Analysis Division wrote the report under the super-
vision of Robert Dennis and Bill Randolph. Jared Brewster, Mark Lasky, and Joshua Shakin
contributed to the analysis. John Skeen edited the report, and Jeanine Rees prepared it for
publication. Lenny Skutnik printed the report, and Linda Schimmel handled the distribution.
This report, along with previous ones on the topic, is available on CBO’s Web site
(www.cbo.gov).
Douglas W. Elmendorf
Director
May 2010
CBO
Contents
Measuring ARRA’s Impact Using Recipients’ Reports
3
Measuring ARRA’s Impact Using Economic Models and Historical Data
3
CBO’s Modeling Approach
4
Change from CBO’s Previous Estimates of the Impact of ARRA
7
Appendix: Evidence on the Economic Effects of Fisc