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DRAFT VERSION DECEMBER 27, 2022 Typeset using LATEX twocolumn style in AASTeX631 Can Cosmological Simulations Reproduce the Spectroscopically Confirmed Galaxies Seen at z ≥ 10? B.W. KELLER,1 F. MUNSHI,2 M. TREBITSCH,3 AND M. TREMMEL4 1Department of Physics and Materials Science, University of Memphis, 3720 Alumni Avenue, Memphis, TN 38152, USA 2Department of Physics and Astronomy, George Mason University 4400 University Drive, MSN 3F3 Fairfax, VA 22030-4444, USA 3Kapteyn Astronomical Institute, University of Groningen, P.O. Box 800, 9700 AV Groningen, The Netherlands 4Physics Department, University College Cork, T12 K8AF Cork, Ireland ABSTRACT Recent photometric detections of extreme (z > 10) redshift galaxies from the JWST have been shown to be in strong tension with existing simulation models for galaxy formation, and in the most acute case, in tension with ΛCDM itself. These results, however, all rest on the confirmation of these distances by spectroscopy. Recently, the JADES survey has detected the most distant galaxies with spectroscopically confirmed redshifts, with four galaxies found with redshifts between z = 10.38 and z = 13.2. In this paper, we compare simulation predictions from four large cosmological volumes and two zoom-in protoclusters with the JADES observations to determine whether these spectroscopically confirmed galaxy detections are in tension with existing models for galaxy formation, or with ΛCDM more broadly. We find that existing models for cosmological galaxy formation can generally reproduce the observations for JADES, in terms of galaxy stellar masses, star formation rates, and the number density of galaxies at z > 10. Keywords: Astronomical simulations (1857) – Galaxy Formation (595) – Protogalaxies (1298) – Cosmology (343) 1. INTRODUCTION The successful deployment of the JWST has already pro- duced observations of the highest-redshift galaxies detected to date. The first sets of detections reported (Finkelstein et al. 2022; Labbe et al. 2022; Naidu et al. 2022a; Adams et al. 2023; Rodighiero et al. 2023) have found galaxies with M∗ > 108 M at zphot > 10. The most extreme of these examples, with M∗ > 1010 M at zphot > 10 have already been shown to be in strong tension with ΛCDM (Haslbauer et al. 2022; Boylan-Kolchin 2022). These tensions have, however, been clouded by the large uncertainty in fitting pho- tometric redshifts at such extreme distances (Bouwens et al. 2022; Naidu et al. 2022b; Kaasinen et al. 2022). Naidu et al. (2022b) and Zavala et al. (2022) found that breaks in the Spectral Energy Distribution (SED) produced by dust obscu- ration at z ∼ 5 can masquerade as a Lyman break at z ∼ 17 for recent JWST observations (see also (Fujimoto et al. 2022) for a similar effect in ALMA observations). As Boylan-Kolchin (2022) showed, if the comoving num- ber density of galaxies at z = 10 with M∗ > 1010 M bkeller1@memphis.edu is as high as can be estimated from Labbe et al. (2022), it would be a significant challenge for ΛCDM : analogous to Haldane’s “fossil rabbits in the Precambrian” (Harvey et al. 1996). Haslbauer et al. (2022) has shown that the obser- vations of galaxies with high stellar mass (M∗ > 109) at high redshift z & 10 from Adams et al. (2023), Labbe et al. (2022), Naidu et al. (2022a), and Naidu et al. (2022b) are in extreme tension with the simulation predictions of EAGLE (Schaye et al. 2015), TNG50, and TNG100 (Pillepich et al. 2018a; Nelson et al. 2019a). These tensions all rest on the es- timations of stellar masses provided by SED fitting and, crit- ically, on the distance estimates themselves. Without spec- troscopic confirmation of the redshifts reported in these ob- servations, these potential tensions may be illusory: artifacts of overestimated distances, and thus overestimated intrinsic luminosities. Indeed, as Behroozi et al. (2020) has shown, semi-empirical modelling of galaxy formation in ΛCDM predicts JWST-detectable galaxies with M∗ > 107 M to at least z ∼ 13.5. Spectroscopic confirmation has now arrived with the dis- covery in the JADES survey of 4 galaxies with zspec > 10 and M∗ & 108 M (Curtis-Lake et al. 2022; Robertson et al. 2022). By observing 65 arcmin2 of the GOODS-S field with JWST NIRCam and NIRSpec, JADES has con- arXiv:2212.12804v1 [astro-ph.GA] 24 Dec 2022 2 KELLER, MUNSHI, TREBITSCH & TREMMEL firmed the four earliest detected galaxies: JADES-GS-z10-0 at z = 10.38+0.07 −0.06, JADES-GS-z11-0 at z = 11.58 +0.05 −0.05, JADES-GS-z12-0 at z = 12.63+0.24 −0.08, and JADES-GS-z13- 0 at z = 13.2+0.04 −0.07. Curtis-Lake et al. (2022); Robertson et al. (2022) have measured stellar masses and star forma- tion rates for these galaxies using the Prospector SED-fitting code (Johnson et al. 2021), finding them to be compact, star forming galaxies with young stellar populations and rela- tively high star formation surface densities. In this letter, we compare the observed JADES galaxies to predictions from an array of large cosmological hydrody- namical simulations. These simulations reproduce observed galaxy population statistics (such as the observed galaxy stel- lar mass function and fundamental plane of star formation) at low redshift. With JADES, we are able to test whether those same models for galaxy formation fail to reproduce these new observations of high redshift galaxy formation. 2. SIMULATION DATA In order to probe the predictions of current galaxy forma- tion models, we examine simulation data from the EAGLE (Crain et al. 2015; Schaye et al. 2015; McAlpine et al. 2016), Illustris (Vogelsberger et al. 2014a,b; Genel et al. 2014; Nel- son et al. 2015), TNG100 (Pillepich et al. 2018b; Springel et al. 2018; Nelson et al. 2018; Naiman et al. 2018; Mari- nacci et al. 2018; Nelson et al. 2019b), and Simba (Davé et al. 2019) cosmological volumes. Each of these simulations has a volume of ∼ 106 cMpc3, with baryonic mass resolution of 106 M − 107 M, which allows them to (marginally) re- solve the formation of M∗ = 108 M − 109 M galaxies (an M∗ = 5×108 M galaxy in EAGLE, Illustris, TNG100, and Simba will contain 276, 384, 357, and 27 star particles respectively). Each of these projects includes models for gas cooling, star formation, and feedback from supernovae (SNe) and active galactic nuclei (AGN) that are tuned to reproduce the z ∼ 0 stellar mass function (among other low-redshift population statistics). In Table 1 we list the cosmological pa- rameters used for each simulation, as well as the size of the simulation volume, the range and number of snapshots with redshift between z ∼ 10 and z ∼ 14, and the mass resolution for dark matter (DM) and baryonic particles. We rely on the public releases of the halo catalogs from each simulation to determine galaxy stellar masses and star formation rates in these simulation data sets. We have also included data from the cosmological zoom- in simulations OBELISK (Trebitsch et al. 2021) and Romu- lusC (Tremmel et al. 2019). OBELISK is a zoom-in of the most massive halo at z = 2 in the HORIZON-AGN volume (Dubois et al. 2014, 2016). This region is selected to include all DM particles within 4Rvir of the halo center at z = 2. At z = 0, this cluster has a halo mass ofMhalo ∼ 6.6×1014M. RomulusC is a zoom-in simulation of a smaller galaxy clus- 10 11 12 13 14 redshift z 108 109 M ∗ (M ) EAGLE Illustris TNG100 Simba OBELISK RomulusC JADES Figure 1. Stellar mass of galaxies from various simulation vol- umes as a function of redshift. Black stars with error bars show the Robertson et al. (2022) JADES observations, while colored points show individual galaxies from different simulated volumes. Large points show the most massive galaxy at each redshift for a given simulation. ter, with halo mass Mhalo = 1.5 × 1014 M at z = 0. It is drawn from a 503 cMpc3 DM-only volume, and applies the same modelling approach for cooling, star formation, su- permassive black hole (SMBH) evolution, and feedback as the Romulus volume (Tremmel et al. 2017). Unlike the other data sets we examine here, these zooms do not include a full resolution sample of a large volume; instead they offer an higher-resolution picture of early collapsing overdensities. 3. RESULTS We begin by simply showing the distribution of galaxy stellar masses in each simulation volume as a function of red- shift, shown in Figure 1. Not all of the simulations we exam- ine here have well-sampled snapshots above z = 10 (EAGLE in particular only includes one snapshot between z ∼ 10 and z ∼ 14). However, as can be seen, all of the simulations produce a large number of galaxies with M∗ > 108 M at z ∼ 10. At all redshifts, Simba and OBELISK produce the most massive galaxies of the simulations we examine, in part due to the larger volume they simulate/are drawn from (∼ 2.4 times the comoving volume of TNG100, the next largest vol- ume), as well as differences in the choice of subgrid physics models. As we move to higher redshift, only Simba and OBELISK produce even a single galaxy above the best-fit stellar masses of JADES-GS-z11-0, JADES-GS-z12-0, and JADES-GS-z13-0. Illustris and TNG100 are unable to pro- duce galaxies at z ∼ 11.5 − 12 which reach even the lower estimate for the stellar mass of JADES-GS-z11-0. CAN COSMOLOGICAL SIMULATIONS REPRODUCE z ≥ 10 GALAXIES 3 Simulation Cosmology Box Size (cMpc) z range Nsnap MDM ( M) Mbaryon( M) EAGLE Planck 2013 (Planck Collaboration et al. 2014) 100 9.99 1 9.7 × 106 1.81 × 106 Illustris WMAP-9 (Hinshaw et al. 2013) 106.5 10.00-13.34 7 6.3 × 106 1.3 × 106 TNG100 Planck 2015 (Planck Collaboration et al. 2016) 110.7 10.00-11.98 3 7.5 × 106 1.4 × 106 Simba Planck 2015 (Planck Collaboration et al. 2016) 147.7 9.96-13.70 10 9.7 × 107 1.82 × 107 OBELISK WMAP-7 (Komatsu et al. 2011) 142.0† 10.07-13.77 13 1.2 × 106 1 × 104 RomulusC Planck 2015 (Planck Collaboration et al. 2016) 50† 9.97-12.88 2 3.4 × 105 2.1 × 105 Table 1. Simulation data compared in this study. Each cosmological volume has a box of side length ∼ 100 cMpc. We show the choice of cosmological parameters, box size, redshift range between z ∼ 10 − 14, number of snapshot outputs in that range, and resolution for DM and baryons. The (†) denotes that these are zoom-in simulations of an individual galaxy protocluster, drawn from a lower-resolution volume. OBELISK is an Eulerian simulation, and thus the baryonic resolution reported here is given as the typical mass of a star particle and the mass of a gas cell with ∆x = 35 pc at a density of n > 10 cm−3. 108 109 1010 M∗ (M) 10−3 10−2 10−1 100 101 102 SFR(M /yr) EAGLE Illustris TNG100 Simba OBELISK RomulusC sSFR = 10 Gyr−1 JADES Observations Figure 2. Star formation rate versus stellar mass for simulated galaxies at z ∼ 10 and observed galaxies at z ≥ 10. Simulation data are shown as colored points, while the JADES observations are shown as black stars. A constant sSFR of 10 Gyr−1 is shown in the grey line. As Robertson et al. (2022) has also provided estimates for the star formation rates (SFR) in the 4 JADES observations, we show in Figure 2 the SFR-M∗ plane for simulated galax- ies at z ∼ 10. All simulation volumes produce galaxies at z ∼ 10 with sSFR = 10 Gyr−1, except for RomulusC, which has an sSFR roughly half this value. An sSFR of 10Gyr−1 is approximately 4 times higher than the star form- ing main sequence at z = 2 (Rodighiero et al. 2011), con- sistent with the observed trend of increasing sSFR towards higher z ∼ 6 redshift (Tasca et al. 2015; Santini et al. 2017). The banding seen in the lower-mass Simba galaxies is sim- ply a function of resolution, as these galaxies contain only a handful of star particles. Interestingly, there appears to be no noticeable trend in the SFR as a function of stellar mass for the JADES observations. However, drawing strong con- clusions as to the nature of the SFR−M∗ relation at z ≥ 10 is ill-advised given the small number of observations, their relatively large uncertainties, and the intrinsic scatter in the SFR-M∗ plane that the simulations predict. Beyond these, the NIRSpec observations of the JADES galaxies are selected from photometric observations, which are subject to a con- tinuum flux (and therefore SFR) limit, introducing a poten- tial observational bias. Overall, the SFRs measured from the simulations match the JADES observations reasonably well, though with perhaps higher SFRs for simulated galaxies at masses above M∗ ∼ 5 × 108 M. Further observations will help reveal if the flat SFR −M∗ curve is a real feature of z ≥ 10 galaxy formation, or simply an artifact of the small sample size of the spectroscopically confirmed JADES galax- ies and/or uncertainties in the estimation of M∗ or SFR. In order to make a more quantitative estimate of poten- tial tension between simulated cosmological volumes and the Robertson et al. (2022) observations, we now look to the co- moving number density of galaxies at each of the redshifts probed by JADES. The deep observing area of JADES, us- ing the JWST NIRCam, (9.7 square arcmin), yields a volume of V ∼ (9 × 9 × 494) cMpc3 ∼ 4 × 104 cMpc3 bounded by the comoving distance of 494 Mpc between the JADES- GS-z10-0 at z = 10.38 and JADES-GS-z13-0 at z = 13.2. These candidates were, however, originally selected photo- metrically from a wider field of 65 arcmin2, which yields a volume of V ∼ 2.7 × 105 cMpc3. We can thus esti- mate the number density of the JADES galaxy observations as n ∼ 3.7 × 10−6 cMpc−3. In Figure 3, we show the comoving number density of galaxies above a given stel- lar mass for simulation snapshots nearest in redshift to each of the JADES observations (if the nearest snapshot is sepa- rated by more than 0.5 in redshift, we omit it from the plot). Each of the JADES observations above z > 10.38 implies a slightly higher number density than what is produced by the simulations. We also show the estimated number den- sity assuming a constant stellar baryon conversion efficiency (M∗ = εfBMhalo) of ε = 0.1, and the maximum expected number density (with M∗ = fBMhalo), following Boylan- Kolchin (2022) using a Sheth & Tormen (1999) halo mass function. Each of the JADES galaxies lies outside of the 4 KELLER, MUNSHI, TREBITSCH & TREMMEL 108 109 M∗(M) 10−7 10−6 10−5 10−4 10−3 10−2 n(>M ∗ )(cMpc − 3 ) JADES-GS-z10-0 108 109 M∗(M) 10−7 10−6 10−5 10−4 10−3 10−2 n(>M ∗ )(cMpc − 3 ) JADES-GS-z11-0 108 109 M∗(M) 10−7 10−6 10−5 10−4 10−3 10−2 n(>M ∗ )(cMpc − 3 ) JADES-GS-z12-0 108 109 M∗(M) 10−7 10−6 10−5 10−4 10−3 10−2 n(>M ∗ )(cMpc − 3 ) JADES-GS-z13-0 EAGLE Illustris TNG100 Simba ε = 0.1 M∗ > fBMhalo Stefanon+ 21 JADES Figure 3. Cumulative number density of galaxies above a given stellar mass for simulation snapshots (colored areas) at the nearest redshift to the JADES observations. Snapshots are chosen such that no more than ∆z = 0.5 separates the simulation snapshot redshift from the observed redshift. Black stars show the detections from Robertson et al. (2022). Filled area shows the uncertainty from Poisson sampling of each mass bin. The grey dashed curve shows the expected number density for an integrated star formation efficiency ε of 10 per cent, and the shaded grey are shows the excluded region where more stellar mass is produced in halos than their available baryon budget. Black circles at z ∼ 10 show the estimated number density from observations by Stefanon et al. (2021). We exclude from this figure the data from zoom-in simulations. excluded region of M∗ = fBMhalo, but the most extreme two cases (JADES-GS-z11-0 and JADES-GS-z12-0) imply integrated baryon conversion efficiencies near 10 per cent (M∗/(fBMhalo) ∼ 0.1). For z ∼ 10, we also show the in- dependent measurements for the galaxy stellar mass function measured by the GREATS ALMA survey by Stefanon et al. (2021). The highest predicted number density for massive halos at these redshifts is from Simba, and only JADES-GS- z11-0 and JADES-GS-z12-0 imply number densities higher than in Simba for galaxies at their stellar mass. Even for the most extreme case, JADES-GS-z11-0, the probability of finding a galaxy with stellar mass above M∗ = 108.9 M at z ∼ 11, in a random volume of 2.7 × 105 cMpc3 in Simba, is 8%. If we instead take the lower estimate for the stellar masses from JADES-GS-z11-0 (M∗ = 108.5 M), this prob- ability rises to 92%. There does not appear to be any signif- icant tension in the density of galaxies with M∗ ∼ 108 M at z > 10 inferred from JADES and the number density produced by at least one existing cosmological simulation (Simba). 4. DISCUSSION We have compared the recent detection of spectroscopi- cally confirmed z > 10 galaxies from the JADES survey to the EAGLE, Illustris, TNG100, and Simba surveys. We show that all four simulation suites produce galaxies with M∗ ∼ 108.5 M at z ∼ 10, and that Simba in particular produces at least one galaxy with mass comparable to the JADES observations at each observed redshift. The JADES galaxies show a relatively flat SFR −M∗ trend, in contrast to the constant sSFR of ∼ 5−10Gyr−1 for simulated galax- ies at z ∼ 10. Comparing the estimated JADES galaxy stellar mass functions to the simulation predictions shows that these simulations are in reasonable agreement with the number density of galaxies at z ∼ 10 observed by JADES CAN COSMOLOGICAL SIMULATIONS REPRODUCE z ≥ 10 GALAXIES 5 and the earlier ALMA measurements from Stefanon et al. (2021) (though Illustris and TNG100 appear to be slightly under-predicting the formation of galaxies at z ∼ 10). At z ∼ 11 − 12, JADES implies a slightly higher number den- sity of galaxies at M > 108 M than are predicted by any of the simulation volumes we examine here. We find, however, that given the small number of objects confirmed in JADES (in a volume of ∼ 2.7 × 105 cMpc3), none of the JADES observations is in greater than 2σ tension for the best-fit stel- lar mass, relative to the Simba simulation. JADES-GS-z11-0 implies a slightly higher density at z = 11 for galaxies with M∗ ∼ 109 M, but the difference between Simba and den- sity inferred from JADES is only slight. A randomly cho- sen volume of 2.7 × 105 cMpc3 from Simba at z = 11.4 will contain a galaxy with stellar mass greater than that of JADES-GS-z11-0 8% of the time. At the lower uncertainty for the JADES-GS-z11-0 stellar mass, this probability grows to 92%. As future observations better constrain the stellar mass function at z ∼ 11, this tension may strengthen or disap- pear. In order to be in tension with all models for galaxy formation in ΛCDM (by implying galaxy star formation ef- ficiencies > 100%), the number density of M∗ = 109 M galaxies at z ∼ 11 would need to be more than 3 orders of magnitude higher than what is implied by the JADES- GS-z11-0 detection. This tension may be resolved by fu- ture refinements in the SED-fit stellar mass estimates low- ering the stellar mass measured for JADES-GS-z11-0, or simply by JADES-GS-z11-0 residing in a moderately rare (P ∼ 8%) overdensity. For a mean cosmological mass den- sity of ρm ∼ 4 × 1010 M cMpc−3, a comoving volume of 4×104 cMpc3 contains a total mass of ∼ 1015M. If the en- tire volume covered by the deepest JADES observations is a rare overdensity that will eventually collapse to form a z ∼ 0 cluster, it will be on the order of the most massive clusters detected (Jee et al. 2014). It is unlikely that the entire JADES volume is probing a single large overdensity (given the fact that it is a pencil-beam volume with a comoving depth of 494 cMpc over an area on the sky of only (9 × 9) cMpc2), but the possibility that one or more of the JADES galaxies above z > 10 resides within one or more protoclusters such as those simulated in OBELISK is still plausible. One question that arises from this data is why the Simba simulations predict more M∗ > 108 M galaxies at z > 10 than Illustris and TNG100. While the Simba volume is some- what larger than Illustris and TNG100 (Simba’s volume is ∼ 2.4 times larger than TNG100), it also produces a higher density of galaxies with M∗ > 108 M at all redshifts we have examined here. Each of these simulations applies a different set of models for star formation and feedback by SNe and AGN. In Simba, SMBHs are seeded in galaxies with M∗ > 109.5M, while in TNG100 SMBHs are seeded in ha- los withMhalo > 7.4×1010M. This means that none of the galaxies we show in Figure 1 or in Figure 3 contain SMBHs, so the differences we find must be a function of the differ- ent star formation and feedback recipes used in TNG100 and Simba. Simba applies a tuned reduction in the SN-driven outflow mass loadings η above z > 3 to better match obser- vations of the galaxy stellar mass function at z > 6, lowering the mass loadings by (a/0.25)2 (Davé et al. 2019). It ap- pears that lower mass loadings at high redshift are not only important to matching observations at z ∼ 6, but for z > 10 as well. Understanding how SNe regulate galaxy formation and drive outflows in these early epochs will be an important avenue of future simulation study. While the results we have shown here show that there is no strong tension between at least one existing large-volume cosmological simulation and the spectroscopically confirmed galaxy detections from JADES, it is important to note that the cosmological volumes we have examined here are all rela- tively low resolution: even a 109 M galaxy only contains ∼ 50 star particles in Simba. These simulations are also tuned to reproduce z ∼ 0 galaxy properties. Star formation and feedback at low redshift are still relatively poorly un- derstood processes (Naab & Ostriker 2017), a problem that becomes much more severe at epochs as early as z > 10 (Crosby et al. 2013; Jeon et al. 2014; Visbal et al. 2020). An obvious direction for future studies is to search for galaxies of similar mass in higher resolution, high redshift simulation volumes. In particular, simulations designed to study reionization such as Renaissance (O’Shea et al. 2015), OBELISK (Trebitsch et al. 2021), SPHINX (Rosdahl et al. 2018), and FLARES (Lovell et al. 2021) all achieve res- olutions significantly higher than any of the volumes we have studied here. Many also feature more physically mo- tivated models for stellar feedback, which are possible at these higher resolutions. FLARES produces a stellar mass function at z ∼ 10 consistent with Stefanon et al. (2021), which we show here to be consistent with JADES. Zoom-in simulations of protoclusters such as OBELISK will be par- ticularly fruitful, as the earliest bright galaxies to form are likely to be found in these environments. As we show in Figure 1, OBELISK contains a number of simulated galaxies with comparable stellar masses to each of the JADES detec- tions at every redshift of the JADES sample, resolved with > 1000 star particles. Zoom-in simulations such as these will be a powerful tool for understanding the earliest phase of galaxy formation at z > 10. 5. CONCLUSIONS We have compared the recent observations of the highest redshift galaxies with spectroscopically confirmed distances from the JADES survey (Robertson et al. 2022) to simulated galaxies from EAGLE, Illustris, TNG100, and Simba vol- 6 KELLER, MUNSHI, TREBITSCH & TREMMEL umes and the OBELISK and RomulusC zoom-ins. In gen- eral, we find that each of these simulations produces galax- ies with comparable stellar masses to the JADES galaxies by z ∼ 10. The most massive JADES galaxies have somewhat lower SFRs than simulated galaxies at z ∼ 10, but lie within the scatter of the simulations. The galaxy number density implied by the JADES galaxies at z ∼ 10 is consistent with both the simulations and past observations. At higher red- shift, only Simba and OBELISK produce galaxies as massive as are found in JADES. The number density of galaxies in- ferred from JADES is slightly larger than what is predicted by Simba at z = 11 and z = 12, but at a low level of signifi- cance. Overall, there appears to be no strong tension between models for galaxy formation in cosmological hydrodynamic simulations and the most distant spectroscopically confirmed galaxies. ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS BWK would like to thank Tessa Klettl for her incredible support and help editing this manuscript. MT acknowledges support from the NWO grant 0.16.VIDI.189.162 (“ODIN”). We also would like to thank James Wadsley for useful discus- sions, and for Jordan Van Nest in helping with the RomulusC simulation data. We especially would like to thank the teams behind EAGLE, Illustris, TNG, and Simba for providing pub- lic access to their simulation datasets. This study would have been impossible to complete in a timely fashion without the community spirit behind these public releases. We acknowledge the Virgo Consortium for making their simulation data available. The EAGLE simulations were per- formed using the DiRAC-2 facility at Durham, managed by the ICC, and the PRACE facility Curie based in France at TGCC, CEA, Bruyéresle-Châtel. 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