IPCC Climate Change 2013 - The Physical Science Basis

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<p>Twelfth Session of Working Group I 
 
Approved Summary for Policymakers 
IPCC WGI AR5 
SPM-1 
27 September 2013 
 
 
Summary for Policymakers 
 
Drafting Authors: Lisa Alexander (Australia), Simon Allen (Switzerland/New Zealand), Nathaniel 
L. Bindoff (Australia), François-Marie Bréon (France), John Church (Australia), Ulrich Cubasch 
(Germany), Seita Emori (Japan), Piers Forster (UK), Pierre Friedlingstein (UK/Belgium), Nathan 
Gillett (Canada), Jonathan Gregory (UK), Dennis Hartmann (USA), Eystein Jansen (Norway), Ben 
Kirtman (USA), Reto Knutti (Switzerland), Krishna Kumar Kanikicharla (India), Peter Lemke 
(Germany), Jochem Marotzke (Germany), Valérie Masson-Delmotte (France), Gerald Meehl 
(USA), Igor Mokhov (Russia), Shilong Piao (China), Gian-Kasper Plattner (Switzerland), Qin Dahe 
(China), Venkatachalam Ramaswamy (USA), David Randall (USA), Monika Rhein (Germany), 
Maisa Rojas (Chile), Christopher Sabine (USA), Drew Shindell (USA), Thomas F. Stocker 
(Switzerland), Lynne Talley (USA), David Vaughan (UK), Shang-Ping Xie (USA) 
 
Draft Contributing Authors: Myles Allen (UK), Olivier Boucher (France), Don Chambers (USA), 
Jens Hesselbjerg Christensen (Denmark), Philippe Ciais (France), Peter Clark (USA), Matthew 
Collins (UK), Josefino Comiso (USA), Viviane Vasconcellos de Menezes (Australia/Brazil), Richard 
Feely (USA), Thierry Fichefet (Belgium), Arlene Fiore (USA), Gregory Flato (Canada), Jan 
Fuglestvedt (Norway), Gabriele Hegerl (UK/Germany), Paul Hezel (Belgium/USA), Gregory 
Johnson (USA), Georg Kaser (Austria/Italy), Vladimir Kattsov (Russia), John Kennedy (UK), Albert 
Klein Tank (Netherlands), Corinne Le Quéré (UK/France), , Gunnar Myhre (Norway), Tim Osborn 
(UK), Antony Payne (UK), Judith Perlwitz (USA/Germany), Scott Power (Australia), Michael 
Prather (USA), Stephen Rintoul (Australia), Joeri Rogelj (Switzerland), Matilde Rusticucci 
(Argentina), Michael Schulz (Germany), Jan Sedláček (Switzerland), Peter Stott (UK), Rowan 
Sutton (UK), Peter Thorne (USA/Norway/UK), Donald Wuebbles (USA) 
 
 
 
 
Twelfth Session of Working Group I 
 
Approved Summary for Policymakers 
IPCC WGI AR5 
SPM-2 
27 September 2013 
 
Working Group I Contribution to the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report 
Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis 
Summary for Policymakers 
 
 
A. Introduction 
 
The Working Group I contribution to the IPCC's Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) considers new 
evidence of climate change based on many independent scientific analyses from observations of 
the climate system, paleoclimate archives, theoretical studies of climate processes and simulations 
using climate models. It builds upon the Working Group I contribution to the IPCC’s Fourth 
Assessment Report (AR4), and incorporates subsequent new findings of research. As a 
component of the fifth assessment cycle, the IPCC Special Report on Managing the Risks of 
Extreme Events to Advance Climate Change Adaptation (SREX) is an important basis for 
information on changing weather and climate extremes. 
 
This Summary for Policymakers (SPM) follows the structure of the Working Group I report. The 
narrative is supported by a series of overarching highlighted conclusions which, taken together, 
provide a concise summary. Main sections are introduced with a brief paragraph in italics which 
outlines the methodological basis of the assessment. 
 
The degree of certainty in key findings in this assessment is based on the author teams’ 
evaluations of underlying scientific understanding and is expressed as a qualitative level of 
confidence (from very low to very high) and, when possible, probabilistically with a quantified 
likelihood (from exceptionally unlikely to virtually certain). Confidence in the validity of a finding is 
based on the type, amount, quality, and consistency of evidence (e.g., data, mechanistic 
understanding, theory, models, expert judgment) and the degree of agreement1. Probabilistic 
estimates of quantified measures of uncertainty in a finding are based on statistical analysis of 
observations or model results, or both, and expert judgment2. Where appropriate, findings are also 
formulated as statements of fact without using uncertainty qualifiers. (See Chapter 1 and Box TS.1 
for more details about the specific language the IPCC uses to communicate uncertainty) 
 
The basis for substantive paragraphs in this Summary for Policymakers can be found in the 
chapter sections of the underlying report and in the Technical Summary. These references are 
given in curly brackets. 
 
 
B. Observed Changes in the Climate System 
 
Observations of the climate system are based on direct measurements and remote sensing from 
satellites and other platforms. Global-scale observations from the instrumental era began in the 
mid-19th century for temperature and other variables, with more comprehensive and diverse sets 
of observations available for the period 1950 onwards. Paleoclimate reconstructions extend some 
                                                 
1 In this Summary for Policymakers, the following summary terms are used to describe the available 
evidence: limited, medium, or robust; and for the degree of agreement: low, medium, or high. A level of 
confidence is expressed using five qualifiers: very low, low, medium, high, and very high, and typeset in 
italics, e.g., medium confidence. For a given evidence and agreement statement, different confidence levels 
can be assigned, but increasing levels of evidence and degrees of agreement are correlated with increasing 
confidence (see Chapter 1 and Box TS.1 for more details). 
2 In this Summary for Policymakers, the following terms have been used to indicate the assessed likelihood 
of an outcome or a result: virtually certain 99–100% probability, very likely 90–100%, likely 66–100%, about 
as likely as not 33–66%, unlikely 0–33%, very unlikely 0–10%, exceptionally unlikely 0–1%. Additional terms 
(extremely likely: 95–100%, more likely than not >50–100%, and extremely unlikely 0–5%) may also be used 
when appropriate. Assessed likelihood is typeset in italics, e.g., very likely (see Chapter 1 and Box TS.1 for 
more details). 
Twelfth Session of Working Group I 
 
Approved Summary for Policymakers 
IPCC WGI AR5 
SPM-3 
27 September 2013 
records back hundreds to millions of years. Together, they provide a comprehensive view of the 
variability and long-term changes in the atmosphere, the ocean, the cryosphere, and the land 
surface. 
 
Warming of the climate system is unequivocal, and since the 1950s, many of the observed 
changes are unprecedented over decades to millennia. The atmosphere and ocean have warmed, 
the amounts of snow and ice have diminished, sea level has risen, and the concentrations of 
greenhouse gases have increased (see Figures SPM.1, SPM.2, SPM.3 and SPM.4). {2.2, 2.4, 3.2, 
3.7, 4.2–4.7, 5.2, 5.3, 5.5–5.6, 6.2, 13.2} 
 
B.1 Atmosphere 
 
Each of the last three decades has been successively warmer at the Earth’s surface than any 
preceding decade since 1850 (see Figure SPM.1). In the Northern Hemisphere, 1983–2012 was 
likely the warmest 30-year period of the last 1400 years (medium confidence). {2.4, 5.3} 
 
[INSERT FIGURE SPM.1 HERE] 
Figure SPM.1: (a) Observed global mean combined land and ocean surface temperature anomalies, from 
1850 to 2012 from three data sets. Top panel: annual mean values, bottom panel: decadal mean values 
including the estimate of uncertainty for one dataset (black). Anomalies are relative to the mean of 
1961−1990. (b) Map of the observed surface temperature change from 1901 to 2012 derived from 
temperature trends determined by linear regression from one dataset (orange line in panel a). Trends have 
been calculated where data availability permits a robust estimate (i.e., only for grid boxes with greater than 
70% complete records and more than 20% data availability in the first and last 10% of the time period). 
Other areas are white. Grid boxes where the trend is significant at the 10% level are indicated by a + sign. 
For a listing of the datasets and further technical details see the Technical Summary Supplementary 
Material. {Figures 2.19–2.21; Figure TS.2} 
 
 The globally averaged combined land and ocean surface temperature data as calculated by a 
linear trend, show a warming of 0.85 [0.65 to 1.06] °C 3, over the period 1880–2012, when 
multiple independently produced datasets exist.  The total increase between the average of the 
1850–1900 period and the 2003–2012 period is 0.78 [0.72 to 0.85] °C, based on the single 
longest dataset available4. (Figure SPM.1a) {2.4} 
 
 For the longest period when calculation of regional trends is sufficiently complete (1901–2012), 
almost the entire globe has experienced surface warming. (Figure SPM.1b) {2.4} 
 
 
In addition to robust multi-decadal warming, global mean surface temperature exhibits 
substantial decadal and interannual variability (see Figure SPM.1). Due to natural variability, 
trends based on short records are very sensitive to the beginning and end dates and do not in 
general reflect long-term climate trends. As one example, the rate of warming over the past 15 
years (1998–2012; 0.05 [–0.05 to +0.15] °C per decade), which begins with a strong El Niño, is 
smaller than the rate calculated since 1951 (1951–2012; 0.12 [0.08 to 0.14] °C per decade)5. 
{2.4} 
 
                                                 
3 In the WGI contribution to the AR5, uncertainty is quantified using 90% uncertainty intervals unless 
otherwise stated. The 90% uncertainty interval, reported in square brackets, is expected to have a 90% 
likelihood of covering the value that is being estimated. Uncertainty intervals are not necessarily symmetric 
about the corresponding best estimate. A best estimate of that value is also given where available. 
4 Both methods presented in this bullet were also used in AR4. The first calculates the difference using a 
best fit linear trend of all points between 1880 and 2012. The second calculates the difference between 
averages for the two periods 1850 to 1900 and 2003 to 2012. Therefore, the resulting values and their  90% 
uncertainty intervals are not directly comparable (2.4). 
5 Trends for 15-year periods starting in 1995, 1996, and 1997 are 0.13 [0.02 to 0.24], 0.14 [0.03 to 0.24], 
0.07 [–0.02 to 0.18] °C per decade, respectively. 
Twelfth Session of Working Group I 
 
Approved Summary for Policymakers 
IPCC WGI AR5 
SPM-4 
27 September 2013 
 Continental-scale surface temperature reconstructions show, with high confidence, multi-
decadal periods during the Medieval Climate Anomaly (year 950 to 1250) that were in some 
regions as warm as in the late 20th century. These regional warm periods did not occur as 
coherently across regions as the warming in the late 20th century (high confidence). {5.5} 
 
• 
It is virtually certain that globally the troposphere has warmed since the mid-20th century. 
More complete observations allow greater confidence in estimates of tropospheric 
temperature changes in the extratropical Northern Hemisphere than elsewhere. There is 
medium confidence in the rate of warming and its vertical structure in the Northern 
Hemisphere extra-tropical troposphere and low confidence elsewhere. {2.4} 
 
• Confidence in precipitation change averaged over global land areas since 1901 is low prior to 
1951 and medium afterwards. Averaged over the mid-latitude land areas of the Northern 
Hemisphere, precipitation has increased since 1901 (medium confidence before and high 
confidence after 1951). For other latitudes area-averaged long-term positive or negative 
trends have low confidence. {Figure SPM.2, Figure TS.XX, 2.5} 
 
[INSERT FIGURE SPM.2 HERE] 
Figure SPM.2: Maps of observed precipitation change from 1901 to 2010 and from 1951 to 2010 (trends 
calculated using the same criteria as in Figure SPM.1b) from one data set. For further technical details see 
the Technical Summary Supplementary Material. {Figure TS.X; Figure 2.29} [FIGURE TO BE COPYEDITED 
AND MADE CONSISTENT WITH FIGURE SPM.1b] 
 
• 
Changes in many extreme weather and climate events have been observed since about 1950 
(see Table SPM.1 for details). It is very likely that the number of cold days and nights has 
decreased and the number of warm days and nights has increased on the global scale6. It is 
likely that the frequency of heat waves has increased in large parts of Europe, Asia and 
Australia. There are likely more land regions where the number of heavy precipitation events 
has increased than where it has decreased. The frequency or intensity of heavy precipitation 
events has likely increased in North America and Europe. In other continents, confidence in 
changes in heavy precipitation events is at most  medium. {2.6} 
 
[INSERT TABLE SPM.1 HERE] 
Table SPM.1: Extreme weather and climate events: Global-scale assessment of recent observed changes, 
human contribution to the changes, and projected further changes for the early (2016–2035) and late (2081–
2100) 21st century. Bold indicates where the AR5 (black) provides a revised* global-scale assessment from 
the SREX (blue) or AR4 (red). Projections for early 21st century were not provided in previous assessment 
reports. Projections in the AR5 are relative to the reference period of 1986–2005, and use the new 
Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios (see Box SPM.1) unless otherwise specified. See 
the Glossary for definitions of extreme weather and climate events. 
 
B.2 Ocean 
 
Ocean warming dominates the increase in energy stored in the climate system, accounting for 
more than 90% of the energy accumulated between 1971 and 2010 (high confidence). It is virtually 
certain that the upper ocean (0−700 m) warmed from 1971 to 2010 (see Figure SPM.3), and it 
likely warmed between the 1870s and 1971. {3.2, Box 3.1} 
 
• 
On a global scale, the ocean warming is largest near the surface, and the upper 75 m warmed 
by 0.11 [0.09 to 0.13] °C per decade over the period 1971–2010. Since AR4, instrumental 
biases in upper-ocean temperature records have been identified and reduced, enhancing 
confidence in the assessment of change. {3.2} 
 
                                                 
6 See the Glossary for the definition of these terms: cold days / cold nights, warm days / warm nights, heat 
waves. 
Twelfth Session of Working Group I 
 
Approved Summary for Policymakers 
IPCC WGI AR5 
SPM-5 
27 September 2013 
• 
It is likely that the ocean warmed between 700 and 2000 m from 1957 to 2009. Sufficient 
observations are available for the period 1992 to 2005 for a global assessment of temperature 
change below 2000 m. There were likely no significant observed temperature trends between 
2000 and 3000 m for this period. It is likely that the ocean warmed from 3000 m to the bottom 
for this period, with the largest warming observed in the Southern Ocean. {3.2} 
 
• 
More than 60% of the net energy increase in the climate system is stored in the upper ocean 
(0–700 m) during the relatively well-sampled 40-year period from 1971 to 2010, and about 
30% is stored in the ocean below 700 m. The increase in upper ocean heat content during this 
time period estimated from a linear trend is likely 17 [15 to 19]  1022 J 7 (Figure SPM.3). {3.2, 
Box 3.1}  
 
• 
It is about as likely as not that ocean heat content from 0–700 m increased more slowly during 
2003–2010 than during 1993–2002 (see Figure SPM.3). Ocean heat uptake from 700–2000 
m, where interannual variability is smaller, likely continued unabated from 1993 to 2009. {3.2, 
Box 9.2} 
 
• 
It is very likely that regions of high salinity where evaporation dominates have become more 
saline, while regions of low salinity where precipitation dominates have become fresher since 
the 1950s. These regional trends in ocean salinity provide indirect evidence that evaporation 
and  precipitation over the oceans have changed (medium confidence). {2.5, 3.3, 3.5} 
 
• 
There is no observational evidence of a trend in the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation 
(AMOC), based on the decade-long record of the complete AMOC and longer records of 
individual AMOC components. {3.6}  
 
B.3 Cryosphere 
 
Over the last two decades, the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets have been losing mass, 
glaciers have continued to shrink almost worldwide, and Arctic sea ice and Northern Hemisphere 
spring snow cover have continued to decrease in extent (high confidence) (see Figure SPM.3). 
{4.2–4.7} 
 
• 
The average rate of ice loss8 from glaciers around the world, excluding glaciers on the 
periphery of the ice sheets9, was very likely 226 [91 to 361] Gt yr−1 over the period 
1971−2009, and very likely 275 [140 to 410] Gt yr−1 over the period 1993−200910. {4.3} 
 
• 
The average rate of ice loss from the Greenland ice sheet has very likely substantially 
increased from 34 [–6 to 74] Gt yr–1 over the period 1992–2001 to 215 [157 to 274] Gt yr–1 
over the period 2002–2011. {4.4} 
 
• 
The average rate of ice loss from the Antarctic ice sheet has likely increased from 30 [–37 to 
97] Gt yr–1 over the period 1992–2001 to 147 [72 to 221] Gt yr–1 over the period 2002–2011. 
There is very high confidence that these losses are mainly from the northern Antarctic 
Peninsula and the Amundsen Sea sector of West Antarctica. {4.4} 
 
[INSERT FIGURE SPM.3 HERE] 
                                                 
7 A constant supply of heat through the ocean surface at the rate of 1 W m–2 for 1 year would increase the 
ocean heat content by 1.1  1022 J. 
8 All references to ‘ice loss’ or ‘mass loss’ refer to net ice loss, accumulation minus melt and iceberg calving. 
9 For methodological reasons, this assessment of ice loss from the Antarctic and Greenland ice sheets 
includes change in the glaciers on the periphery. These peripheral glaciers are thus excluded from the 
values given for glaciers. 
10 100 Gt yr−1 of ice loss is equivalent to about 0.28 mm yr−1 of global mean sea level rise. 
Twelfth Session of Working Group I 
 
Approved Summary for Policymakers 
IPCC WGI AR5 
SPM-6 
27 September 2013 
Figure SPM.3: Multiple observed indicators of a changing global climate: (a) Extent of Northern Hemisphere 
March-April (spring) average snow cover, (b) Extent of Arctic July-August-September (summer) average sea 
ice, (c) change in global mean upper ocean (0–700 m) heat content aligned to 2006−2010, and relative to 
the mean of all datasets for 1971, (d) global mean sea level relative to the 1900–1905 mean of the longest 
running dataset, and with all datasets aligned to have the same value in 1993, the first year of satellite 
altimetry data. All time-series (coloured lines indicating different data sets) show annual values, and where 
assessed, uncertainties are indicated by coloured shading. See Technical Summary Supplementary Material 
for a listing of the datasets. {Figures 3.2, 3.13, 4.19, and 4.3; FAQ 2.1, Figure 2; Figure TS.1} 
 
• 
The annual mean Arctic sea ice extent decreased over the period 1979–2012 with a rate that 
was very likely in the range 3.5 to 4.1% per decade (range of 0.45 to 0.51 million km2 per 
decade), and very likely in the range 9.4 to 13.6% per decade (range of 0.73 to 1.07 million 
km2 per decade) for the summer sea ice minimum (perennial sea ice). The average decrease 
in decadal mean extent of Arctic sea ice has been most rapid in summer (high confidence); 
the spatial extent has decreased in every season, and in every successive decade since 1979 
(high confidence) (see Figure SPM.3). There is medium confidence from reconstructions that 
over the past three decades, Arctic summer sea ice retreat was unprecedented and sea 
surface temperatures were anomalously high in at least the last 1,450 years. {4.2, 5.5} 
 
• 
It is very likely that the annual mean Antarctic sea ice extent increased at a rate in the range 
of 1.2 to 1.8% per decade (range of 0.13 to 0.20 million km2 per decade) between 1979 and 
2012. There is high confidence that there are strong regional differences in this annual rate, 
with extent increasing in some regions and decreasing in others. {4.2} 
 
• 
There is very high confidence that the extent of Northern Hemisphere snow cover has 
decreased since the mid-20th century (see Figure SPM.3). Northern Hemisphere snow cover 
extent decreased 1.6 [0.8 to 2.4] % per decade for March and April, and 11.7 [8.8 to 14.6] % 
per decade for June, over the 1967–2012 period. During this period, snow cover extent in the 
Northern Hemisphere did not show a statistically significant increase in any month. {4.5} 
 
• 
There is high confidence that permafrost temperatures have increased in most regions since 
the early 1980s. Observed warming was up to 3°C in parts of Northern Alaska (early 1980s to 
mid-2000s) and up to 2°C in parts of the Russian European North (1971–2010). In the latter 
region, a considerable reduction in permafrost thickness and areal extent has been observed 
over the period 1975–2005 (medium confidence). {4.7} 
 
• 
Multiple lines of evidence support very substantial Arctic warming since the mid-20th century. 
{Box 5.1, 10.3} 
 
B.4 Sea Level 
 
The rate of sea level rise since the mid-19th century has been larger than the mean rate during the 
previous two millennia (high confidence). Over the period 1901–2010, global mean sea level rose 
by 0.19 [0.17 to 0.21] m (see Figure SPM.3). {3.7, 5.6, 13.2} 
 
• 
Proxy and instrumental sea level data indicate a transition in the late 19th to the early 20th 
century from relatively low mean rates of rise over the previous two millennia to higher rates of 
rise (high confidence). It is likely that the rate of global mean sea level rise has continued to 
increase since the early 20th century. {3.7, 5.6, 13.2} 
 
• 
It is very likely that the mean rate of global averaged sea level rise was 1.7 [1.5 to 1.9] mm yr–
1 between 1901 and 2010, 2.0 [1.7 to 2.3] mm yr–1 between 1971 and 2010 and 3.2 [2.8 to 3.6] 
mm yr–1 between 1993 and 2010. Tide-gauge and satellite altimeter data are consistent 
regarding the higher rate of the latter period. It is likely that similarly high rates occurred 
between 1920 and 1950. {3.7} 
 
Twelfth Session of Working Group I 
 
Approved Summary for Policymakers 
IPCC WGI AR5 
SPM-7 
27 September 2013 
• 
Since the early 1970s, glacier mass loss and ocean thermal expansion from warming together 
explain about 75% of the observed global mean sea level rise (high confidence). Over the 
period 1993–2010, global mean sea level rise is, with high confidence, consistent with the 
sum of the observed contributions from ocean thermal expansion due to warming (1.1 [0.8 to 
1.4] mm yr–1), from changes in glaciers (0.76 [0.39 to 1.13] mm yr–1), Greenland ice sheet 
(0.33 [0.25 to 0.41] mm yr–1), Antarctic ice sheet (0.27 [0.16 to 0.38] mm yr–1), and land water 
storage (0.38 [0.26 to 0.49] mm yr–1). The sum of these contributions is 2.8 [2.3 to 3.4] mm yr–
1. {13.3} 
 
• 
There is very high confidence that maximum global mean sea level during the last interglacial 
period (129,000 to 116,000 years ago) was, for several thousand years, at least 5 m higher 
than present and high confidence that it did not exceed 10 m above present. During the last 
interglacial period, the Greenland ice sheet very likely contributed between 1.4 and 4.3 m to 
the higher global mean sea level, implying with medium confidence an additional contribution 
from the Antarctic ice sheet. This change in sea level occurred in the context of different 
orbital forcing and with high-latitude surface temperature, averaged over several thousand 
years, at least 2°C warmer than present (high confidence). {5.3, 5.6} 
 
B.5 Carbon and Other Biogeochemical Cycles 
 
The atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide (CO2), methane, and nitrous oxide have 
increased to levels unprecedented in at least the last 800,000 years. CO2 concentrations have 
increased by 40% since pre-industrial times, primarily from fossil fuel emissions and secondarily 
from net land use change emissions. The ocean has absorbed about 30% of the emitted 
anthropogenic carbon dioxide, causing ocean acidification (see Figure SPM.4). {2.2, 3.8, 5.2, 6.2, 
6.3} 
 
• 
The atmospheric concentrations of the greenhouse gases carbon dioxide (CO2), methane 
(CH4), and nitrous oxide (N2O) have all increased since 1750 due to human activity. In 2011 
the concentrations of these greenhouse gases were 391 ppm11, 1803 ppb, 324 ppb and 
exceeded the pre-industrial levels by about 40%, 150%, and 20%, respectively. {2.2, 5.2, 6.1, 
6.2} 
 
• 
Concentrations of CO2, CH4, and N2O now substantially exceed the highest concentrations 
recorded in ice cores during the past 800,000 years. The mean rates of increase in 
atmospheric concentrations over the past century are, with very high confidence, 
unprecedented in the last 22,000 years. {5.2, 6.1, 6.2} 
 
• 
Annual CO2 emissions from fossil fuel combustion and cement production were 8.3 [7.6 to 9.0] 
GtC12 yr–1 averaged over 2002–2011 (high confidence) and were 9.5 [8.7 to 10.3] GtC yr–1 in 
2011, 54% above the 1990 level. Annual net CO2 emissions from anthropogenic land use 
change were 0.9 [0.1 to 1.7] GtC yr–1 on average during 2002 to 2011 (medium confidence). 
{6.3} 
 
• 
From 1750 to 2011, CO2 emissions from fossil fuel combustion and cement production have 
released 365 [335 to 395] GtC to the atmosphere, while deforestation and other land use 
change are estimated to have released 180 [100 to 260] GtC. This results in cumulative 
anthropogenic emissions of 545 [460 to 630] GtC. {6.3} 
 
                                                 
11 ppm (parts per million) or ppb (parts per billion, 1 billion = 1,000 million) is the ratio of the number of gas 
molecules to the total number of molecules of dry air. For example, 300 ppm means 300 molecules of a gas 
per million molecules of dry air. 
12 1 Gigatonne of carbon = 1 GtC = 1015 grams of carbon = 1 Petagram of carbon = 1 PgC. This corresponds 
to 3.67 GtCO2. 
Twelfth Session of Working Group I 
 
Approved Summary for Policymakers 
IPCC WGI AR5 
SPM-8 
27 September 2013 
• 
Of these cumulative anthropogenic CO2 emissions, 240 [230 to 250] GtC have accumulated in 
the atmosphere, 155 [125 to 185] GtC have been taken up by the ocean and 150 [60 to 240] 
GtC have accumulated in natural terrestrial ecosystems (cf. cumulative residual land sink). 
{Figure TS.4, 3.8, 6.3} 
 
• 
Ocean acidification is quantified by decreases in pH13. The pH of ocean surface water has 
decreased by 0.1 since the beginning of the industrial era (high confidence), corresponding to 
a 26% increase in hydrogen ion concentration (see Figure SPM.4). {3.8., Box 3.2} 
 
[INSERT FIGURE SPM.4 HERE] 
Figure SPM.4: Multiple observed indicators of a changing global carbon cycle: (a) atmospheric 
concentrations of carbon dioxide (CO2) from Mauna Loa (19°32′N, 155°34′W – red) and South Pole 
(89°59′S, 24°48′W – black) since 1958; (b) partial pressure of dissolved CO2 at the ocean surface (blue 
curves) and in situ pH (green curves), a measure of the acidity of ocean water. Measurements are from 
three stations from the Atlantic (29°10′N, 15°30′W – dark blue/dark green; 31°40′N, 64°10′W – blue/green) 
and the Pacific Oceans (22°45′N, 158°00′W − light blue/light green). Full details of the datasets shown here 
are provided in the underlying report and the Technical Summary Supplementary Material. {Figures 2.1 and 
3.18; Figure TS.5} 
 
 
C. Drivers of Climate Change 
 
Natural and anthropogenic substances and processes that alter the Earth's energy budget are 
drivers of climate change. Radiative forcing14 (RF) quantifies the change in energy fluxes caused 
by changes in these drivers for 2011 relative to 1750, unless otherwise indicated. Positive RF 
leads to surface warming, negative RF leads to surface cooling.  RF is estimated based on in-situ 
and remote observations, properties of greenhouse gases and aerosols, and calculations using 
numerical models representing observed processes. Some emitted compounds affect the 
atmospheric concentration of other substances. The RF can be reported based on the 
concentration changes of each substance15. Alternatively, the emission-based RF of a compound 
can be reported, which provides a more direct link to human activities. It includes contributions 
from all substances affected by that emission. The total anthropogenic RF of the two approaches 
are identical when considering all drivers. Though both approaches are used in this Summary, 
emission-based RFs are emphasized. 
 
Total radiative forcing is positive, and has led to an uptake of energy by the climate system. The 
largest contribution to total radiative forcing is caused by the increase in the atmospheric 
concentration of CO2 since 1750 (see Figure SPM.5). {3.2, Box 3.1, 8.3, 8.5} 
 
[INSERT FIGURE SPM.5 HERE] 
Figure SPM.5: Radiative forcing estimates in 2011 relative to 1750 and aggregated uncertainties for the 
main drivers of climate change. Values are global average radiative forcing (RF15) partitioned according to 
the emitted compounds or processes that result in a combination of drivers. The best estimates of the net 
radiative forcing are shown as black diamonds with corresponding uncertainty intervals; the numerical values 
                                                 
13 pH is a measure of acidity using a logarithmic scale: a pH decrease of 1 unit  corresponds to a 10-fold 
increase in hydrogen ion concentration, or acidity. 
14 The strength of drivers is quantified as Radiative Forcing (RF) in units watts per square metre (W m–2) as 
in previous IPCC assessments. RF is the change in energy flux caused by a driver, and is calculated at the 
tropopause or at the top of the atmosphere. In the traditional RF concept employed in previous IPCC reports 
all surface and tropospheric conditions are kept fixed. In calculations of RF for well-mixed greenhouse gases 
and aerosols in this report, physical variables, except for the ocean and sea ice, are allowed to respond to 
perturbations with rapid adjustments. The resulting forcing is called Effective Radiative Forcing (ERF) in the 
underlying report. This change reflects the scientific progress from previous assessments and results in a 
better indication of the eventual temperature response for these drivers. For all drivers other than well-mixed 
greenhouse gases and aerosols, rapid adjustments are less well characterized and assumed to be small, 
and thus the traditional RF is used. {8.1} 
15 This approach was used to report RF in the AR4 SPM. 
Twelfth Session of Working Group I 
 
Approved Summary for Policymakers 
IPCC WGI AR5 
SPM-9 
27 September 2013 
are provided on the right of the figure, together with the confidence level in the net forcing (VH – very high, H 
– high, M – medium, L – low, VL – very low). Albedo forcing due to black carbon on snow and ice is included 
in the black carbon aerosol bar. Small forcings due to contrails (0.05 W m–2, including contrail induced 
cirrus), and HFCs, PFCs and SF6 (total 0.03 W m–2) are not shown. Concentration-based RFs for gases can 
be obtained by summing the like-coloured bars. Volcanic forcing is not included as its episodic nature makes 
is difficult to compare to other forcing mechanisms. Total anthropogenic radiative forcing is provided for three 
different years relative to 1750. For further technical details, including uncertainty ranges associated with 
individual components and processes, see the Technical Summary Supplementary Material. {8.5; Figures 
8.14–8.18; Figures TS.6 and TS.7} 
 
• 
The total anthropogenic RF for 2011 relative to 1750 is 2.29 [1.13 to 3.33] W m−2 (see Figure 
SPM.5), and it has increased more rapidly since 1970 than during prior decades. The total 
anthropogenic RF best estimate for 2011 is 43% higher than that reported in AR4 for the year 
2005. This is caused by a combination of continued growth in most greenhouse gas 
concentrations and improved estimates of RF by aerosols indicating a weaker net cooling 
effect (negative RF). {8.5} 
 
• 
The RF from emissions of well-mixed greenhouse gases (CO2, CH4, N2O, and Halocarbons) 
for 2011 relative to 1750 is 3.00 [2.22 to 3.78] W m–2 (see Figure SPM.5). The RF from 
changes in concentrations in these gases is 2.83 [2.26 to 3.40] W m–2. {8.5} 
 
• 
Emissions of CO2 alone have caused an RF of 1.68 [1.33 to 2.03] W m–2 (see Figure SPM.5). 
Including emissions of other carbon-containing gases, which also contributed to the increase 
in CO2 concentrations, the RF of CO2 is 1.82 [1.46 to 2.18] W m–2. {8.3, 8.5} 
 
• 
Emissions of CH4 alone have caused an RF of 0.97 [0.74 to 1.20] W m−2 (see Figure SPM.5). 
This is much larger than the concentration-based estimate of 0.48 [0.38 to 0.58] Wm−2 
(unchanged from AR4). This difference in estimates is caused by concentration changes in 
ozone and stratospheric water vapour due to CH4 emissions and other emissions indirectly 
affecting CH4. {8.3, 8.5} 
 
• 
Emissions of stratospheric ozone-depleting halocarbons have caused a net positive RF of 
0.18 [0.01 to 0.35] W m−2 (see Figure SPM.5). Their own positive RF has outweighed the 
negative RF from the ozone depletion that they have induced. The positive RF from all 
halocarbons is similar to the value in AR4, with a reduced RF from CFCs but increases from 
many of their substitutes. {8.3, 8.5} 
 
• 
Emissions of short-lived gases contribute to the total anthropogenic RF. Emissions of carbon 
monoxide are virtually certain to have induced a positive RF, while emissions of nitrogen 
oxides (NOx) are likely to have induced a net negative RF (see Figure SPM.5). {8.3, 8.5} 
 
• 
The RF of the total aerosol effect in the atmosphere, which includes cloud adjustments due to 
aerosols, is –0.9 [–1.9 to −0.1] W m−2 (medium confidence), and results from a negative 
forcing from most aerosols and a positive contribution from black carbon absorption of solar 
radiation. There is high confidence that aerosols and their interactions with clouds have offset 
a substantial portion of global mean forcing from well-mixed greenhouse gases. They continue 
to contribute the largest uncertainty to the total RF estimate. {7.5, 8.3, 8.5} 
 
• 
The forcing from stratospheric volcanic aerosols can have a large impact on the climate for 
some years after volcanic eruptions. Several small eruptions have caused a RF of –0.11 [–
0.15 to –0.08] W m–2 for the years 2008–2011, which is approximately twice as strong as 
during the years 1999–2002. {8.4} 
 
• 
The RF due to changes in solar irradiance is estimated as 0.05 [0.00 to 0.10] W m−2. Satellite 
observations of total solar irradiance changes from 1978 to 2011 indicate that the last solar 
minimum was lower than the previous two. This results in a RF of –0.04 [–0.08 to 0.00] W m–2 
between the most recent minimum in 2008 and the 1986 minimum. {8.4} 
 
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• 
The total natural RF from solar irradiance changes and stratospheric volcanic aerosols made 
only a small contribution to the net radiative forcing throughout the last century, except for 
brief periods after large volcanic eruptions. {8.5} 
 
 
D. Understanding the Climate System and its Recent Changes 
 
Understanding recent changes in the climate system results from combining observations, studies 
of feedback processes, and model simulations. Evaluation of the ability of climate models to 
simulate recent changes requires consideration of the state of all modelled climate system 
components at the start of the simulation and the natural and anthropogenic forcing used to drive 
the models. Compared to AR4, more detailed and longer observations and improved climate 
models now enable the attribution of a human contribution to detected changes in more climate 
system components.  
 
Human influence on the climate system is clear. This is evident from the increasing greenhouse 
gas concentrations in the atmosphere, positive radiative forcing, observed warming, and 
understanding of the climate system. {2–14} 
 
D.1 Evaluation of Climate Models 
 
Climate models have improved since the AR4. Models reproduce observed continental-scale 
surface temperature patterns and trends over many decades, including the more rapid warming 
since the mid-20th century and the cooling immediately following large volcanic eruptions (very 
high confidence). {9.4, 9.6, 9.8} 
 
 The long-term climate model simulations show a trend in global-mean surface temperature 
from 1951 to 2012 that agrees with the observed trend (very high confidence). There are, 
however, differences between simulated and observed trends over periods as short as 10 to 15 
years (e.g., 1998 to 2012). {9.4, Box 9.2} 
 
 The observed reduction in surface warming trend over the period 1998–2012 as compared to 
the period 1951–2012, is due in roughly equal measure to a reduced trend in radiative forcing 
and a cooling contribution from internal variability, which includes a possible redistribution of 
heat within the ocean (medium confidence). The reduced trend in radiative forcing is primarily 
due to volcanic eruptions and the timing of the downward phase of the 11-year solar cycle. 
However, there is low confidence in quantifying the role of changes in radiative forcing in 
causing the reduced warming trend. There is medium confidence that internal decadal 
variability causes to a substantial degree the difference between observations and the 
simulations; the latter are not expected to reproduce the timing of internal variability. There 
may also be a contribution from forcing inadequacies and, in some models, an overestimate of 
the response to increasing greenhouse gas and other anthropogenic forcing (dominated by the 
effects of aerosols). {9.4, Box 9.2, 10.3, Box 10.2, 11.3} 
 
 On regional scales, the confidence in model capability to simulate surface temperature is less 
than for the larger scales. However, there is high confidence that regional-scale surface 
temperature is better simulated than at the time of the AR4. {9.4, 9.6} 
 
 There has been substantial progress in the assessment of extreme weather and climate events 
since AR4. Simulated global-mean trends in the frequency of extreme warm and cold days and 
nights over the second half of the 20th century are generally consistent with observations. {9.5} 
 
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 There has been some improvement in the simulation of continental-scale patterns of 
precipitation since the AR4. At regional scales, precipitation is not simulated as well, and the 
assessment is hampered by observational uncertainties. {9.4, 9.6} 
 
 Some important climate phenomena are now better reproduced by models. There is high 
confidence that the statistics of monsoon and El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) based on 
multi-model simulations have improved since AR4. {9.5} 
 
 Climate models now include more cloud and aerosol processes, and their interactions, than at 
the time of the AR4, but there remains low confidence in the representation and quantification 
of these processes in models. {7.3, 7.6, 9.4, 9.7} 
 
 There is robust evidence that the downward trend in Arctic summer sea ice extent since 1979 
is now reproduced by more models than at the time of the AR4, with about one-quarter of the 
models showing a trend as large as, or larger than, the trend in the observations. Most models 
simulate a small downward trend in Antarctic sea ice extent, albeit with large inter-model 
spread, in contrast to the small upward trend in observations. {9.4} 
 
 Many models reproduce the observed changes in upper-ocean heat content (0–700 m) from 
1961 to 2005 (high confidence), with the multi-model mean time series falling within the range 
of the available observational estimates for most of the period. {9.4} 
 
 Climate models that include the carbon cycle (Earth System Models) simulate the global 
pattern of ocean-atmosphere CO2 fluxes, with outgassing in the tropics and uptake in the mid 
and high latitudes. In the majority of these models the sizes of the simulated global land and 
ocean carbon sinks over the latter part of the 20th century are within the range of observational 
estimates. {9.4} 
 
D.2 Quantification of Climate System Responses 
 
Observational and model studies of temperature change, climate feedbacks and changes in the 
Earth’s energy budget together provide confidence in the magnitude of global warming in response 
to past and future forcing. {Box 12.2, Box 13.1} 
 
• 
The net feedback from the combined effect of changes in water vapour, and differences 
between atmospheric and surface warming is extremely likely positive and therefore amplifies 
changes in climate. The net radiative feedback due to all cloud types combined is likely 
positive. Uncertainty in the sign and magnitude of the cloud feedback is due primarily to 
continuing uncertainty in the impact of warming on low clouds. {7.2} 
 
• 
The equilibrium climate sensitivity quantifies the response of the climate system to constant 
radiative forcing on multi-century time scales. It is defined as the change in global mean 
surface temperature at equilibrium that is caused by a doubling of the atmospheric CO2 
concentration. Equilibrium climate sensitivity is likely in the range 1.5°C to 4.5°C (high 
confidence), extremely unlikely less than 1°C (high confidence), and very unlikely greater than 
6°C (medium confidence)16. The lower temperature limit of the assessed likely range is thus 
less than the 2°C in the AR4, but the upper limit is the same. This assessment reflects 
improved understanding, the extended temperature record in the atmosphere and ocean, and 
new estimates of radiative forcing. {TFE6.1, Figure 1; Box 12.2} 
 
• 
The rate and magnitude of global climate change is determined by radiative forcing, climate 
feedbacks and the storage of energy by the climate system. Estimates of these quantities for 
recent decades are consistent with the assessed likely range of the equilibrium climate 
                                                 
16 No best estimate for equilibrium climate sensitivity can now be given because of a lack of agreement on 
values across assessed lines of evidence and studies. 
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sensitivity to within assessed uncertainties, providing strong evidence for our understanding of 
anthropogenic climate change. {Box 12.2, Box 13.1} 
 
• 
The transient climate response  quantifies the response of the climate system to an increasing 
radiative forcing on a decadal to century timescale. It is defined as the change in global mean 
surface temperature at the time when the atmospheric CO2 concentration has doubled in a 
scenario of concentration increasing at 1% per year. The transient climate response is likely in 
the range of 1.0°C to 2.5°C (high confidence) and extremely unlikely greater than 3°C. {Box 
12.2} 
 
• 
A related quantity is the transient climate response to cumulative carbon emissions (TCRE). It 
quantifies the transient response of the climate system to cumulative carbon emissions (see 
Section E.8). TCRE is defined as the global mean surface temperature change per 1000 GtC 
emitted to the atmosphere. TCRE is likely in the range of 0.8°C to 2.5°C per 1000 GtC and 
applies for cumulative emissions up to about 2000 GtC until the time temperatures peak (see 
Figure SPM.9). {12.5, Box 12.2} 
 
 Various metrics can be used to compare the contributions to climate change of emissions of 
different substances. The most appropriate metric and time horizon will depend on which 
aspects of climate change are considered most important to a particular application. No single 
metric can accurately compare all consequences of different emissions, and all have 
limitations and uncertainties. Global Warming Potential is based on the cumulative radiative 
forcing over a particular time horizon, and the Global Temperature change Potential is based 
on the change in global mean surface temperature at a chosen point in time. Updated values 
are provided in this Report. {8.7}  
 
D.3 Detection and Attribution of Climate Change 
 
Human influence has been detected in warming of the atmosphere and the ocean, in changes in 
the global water cycle, in reductions in snow and ice, in global mean sea level rise, and in changes 
in some climate extremes (Figure SPM.6 and Table SPM.1). This evidence for human influence 
has grown since AR4. It is extremely likely that human influence has been the dominant cause of 
the observed warming since the mid-20th century. {10.3–10.6, 10.9} 
 
[INSERT FIGURE SPM.6 HERE] 
Figure SPM.6: Comparison of observed and simulated climate change based on three large-scale indicators 
in the atmosphere, the cryosphere and the ocean: change in continental land surface air temperatures 
(yellow panels), Arctic and Antarctic September sea ice extent (white panels), and upper ocean heat content 
in the major ocean basins (blue panels). Global average changes are also given. Anomalies are given 
relative to 1880–1919 for surface temperatures, 1960–1980 for ocean heat content and 1979–1999 for sea 
ice. All time-series are decadal averages, plotted at the centre of the decade. For temperature panels, 
observations are dashed lines if the spatial coverage of areas being examined is below 50%. For ocean heat 
content and sea ice panels the solid line is where the coverage of data is good and higher in quality, and the 
dashed line is where the data coverage is only adequate, and thus, uncertainty is larger. Model results 
shown are Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) multi-model ensemble ranges, with 
shaded bands indicating the 5 to 95% confidence intervals. For further technical details, including region 
definitions see the Technical Summary Supplementary Material. {Figure 10.21; Figure TS.12} 
 
 
It is extremely likely that more than half of the observed increase in global average surface 
temperature from 1951 to 2010 was caused by the anthropogenic increase in greenhouse gas 
concentrations and other anthropogenic forcings together. The best estimate of the human-
induced contribution to warming is similar to the observed warming over this period. {10.3} 
 
 Greenhouse gases contributed a global mean surface warming likely to be in the range of 
0.5°C to 1.3°C over the period 1951−2010, with the contributions from other anthropogenic 
forcings, including the cooling effect of aerosols, likely to be in the range of −0.6°C to 0.1°C. 
The contribution from natural forcings is likely to be in the range of −0.1°C to 0.1°C, and from 
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internal variability is likely to be in the range of −0.1°C to 0.1°C. Together these assessed 
contributions are consistent with the observed warming of approximately 0.6°C to 0.7°C over 
this period. {10.3} 
 
 Over every continental region except Antarctica, anthropogenic forcings have likely made a 
substantial contribution to surface temperature increases since the mid-20th century (see 
Figure SPM.6). For Antarctica, large observational uncertainties result in low confidence that 
anthropogenic forcings have contributed to the observed warming averaged over available 
stations. It is likely that there has been an anthropogenic contribution to the very substantial 
Arctic warming since the mid-20th century. {2.4, 10.3} 
 
 
It is very likely that anthropogenic influence, particularly greenhouse gases and stratospheric 
ozone depletion, has led to a detectable observed pattern of tropospheric warming and a 
corresponding cooling in the lower stratosphere since 1961. {2.4, 9.4, 10.3} 
 
 
It is very likely that anthropogenic forcings have made a substantial contribution to increases in 
global upper ocean heat content (0–700 m) observed since the 1970s (see Figure SPM.6). 
There is evidence for human influence in some individual ocean basins. {3.2, 10.4} 
 
 
It is likely that anthropogenic influences have affected the global water cycle since 1960. 
Anthropogenic influences have contributed to observed increases in atmospheric moisture 
content in the atmosphere (medium confidence), to global-scale changes in precipitation 
patterns over land (medium confidence), to intensification of heavy precipitation over land 
regions where data are sufficient (medium confidence), and to changes in surface and sub-
surface ocean salinity (very likely). {2.5, 2.6, 3.3, 7.6, 10.3, 10.4} 
 
 There has been further strengthening of the evidence for human influence on temperature 
extremes since the SREX. It is now very likely that human influence has contributed to 
observed global scale changes in the frequency and intensity of daily temperature extremes 
since the mid-20th century, and likely that human influence has more than doubled the 
probability of occurrence of heat waves in some locations (see Table SPM.1). {10.6} 
 
 Anthropogenic influences have very likely contributed to Arctic sea ice loss since 1979. There 
is low confidence in the scientific understanding of the small observed increase in Antarctic sea 
ice extent due to the incomplete and competing scientific explanations for the causes of 
change and low confidence in estimates of internal variability in that region (see Figure 
SPM.6). {10.5} 
 
 Anthropogenic influences likely contributed to the retreat of glaciers since the 1960s and to the 
increased surface mass loss of the Greenland ice sheet since 1993. Due to a low level of 
scientific understanding there is low confidence in attributing the causes of the observed loss of 
mass from the Antarctic ice sheet over the past two decades. {4.3, 10.5} 
 
 
It is likely that there has been an anthropogenic contribution to observed reductions in Northern 
Hemisphere spring snow cover since 1970. {10.5} 
 
 
It is very likely that there is a substantial anthropogenic contribution to the global mean sea 
level rise since the 1970s. This is based on the high confidence in an anthropogenic influence 
on the two largest contributions to sea level rise, that is thermal expansion and glacier mass 
loss. {10.4, 10.5, 13.3} 
 
 There is high confidence that changes in total solar irradiance have not contributed to the 
increase in global mean surface temperature over the period 1986 to 2008, based on direct 
satellite measurements of total solar irradiance. There is medium confidence that the 11-year 
cycle of solar variability influences decadal climate fluctuations in some regions. No robust 
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association between changes in cosmic rays and cloudiness has been identified. {7.4, 10.3, 
Box 10.2} 
 
 
E. Future Global and Regional Climate Change 
 
Projections of changes in the climate system are made using a hierarchy of climate models 
ranging from simple climate models, to models of intermediate complexity, to comprehensive 
climate models, and Earth System Models. These models simulate changes based on a set of 
scenarios of anthropogenic forcings. A new set of scenarios, the Representative Concentration 
Pathways (RCPs), was used for the new climate model simulations carried out under the 
framework of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) of the World Climate 
Research Programme. In all RCPs, atmospheric CO2 concentrations are higher in 2100 relative to 
present day as a result of a further increase of cumulative emissions of CO2 to the atmosphere 
during the 21st century (see Box SPM.1). Projections in this Summary for Policymakers are for the 
end of the 21st century (2081���2100) given relative to 1986–2005, unless otherwise stated. To 
place such projections in historical context, it is necessary to consider observed changes between 
different periods. Based on the longest global surface temperature dataset available, the observed 
change between the average of the period 1850–1900 and of the AR5 reference period is 0.61 
[0.55 to 0.67] °C. However, warming has occurred beyond the average of the AR5 reference 
period. Hence this is not an estimate of historical warming to present (see Chapter 2) . 
 
Continued emissions of greenhouse gases will cause further warming and changes in all 
components of the climate system. Limiting climate change will require substantial and sustained 
reductions of greenhouse gas emissions. {Chapters 6, 11, 12, 13, 14} 
 
 Projections for the next few decades show spatial patterns of climate change similar to those 
projected for the later 21st century but with smaller magnitude. Internal variability will continue 
to be a major influence on climate, particularly in the near-term and at the regional scale. By 
the mid-21st century the magnitudes of the projected changes are substantially affected by the 
choice of emissions scenario (Box SPM.1). {11.3, Box 11.1, Annex I} 
 
 Projected climate change based on RCPs is similar to AR4 in both patterns and magnitude, 
after accounting for scenario differences. The overall spread of projections for the high RCPs is 
narrower than for comparable scenarios used in AR4 because in contrast to the SRES 
emission scenarios used in AR4, the RCPs used in AR5 are defined as concentration 
pathways and thus carbon cycle uncertainties affecting atmospheric CO2 concentrations are 
not considered in the concentration driven CMIP5 simulations. Projections of sea level rise are 
larger than in the AR4, primarily because of improved modelling of land-ice contributions.{11.3, 
12.3, 12.4, 13.4, 13.5} 
 
[INSERT FIGURE SPM.7 HERE] 
Figure SPM.7: CMIP5 multi-model simulated time series from 1950 to 2100 for (a) change in global annual 
mean surface temperature relative to 1986–2005 (see Table SPM.2 for other reference periods), (b) 
Northern Hemisphere September sea ice extent (5 year running mean) and (c) global mean ocean surface 
pH. Time series of projections and a measure of uncertainty (shading) are shown for scenarios RCP2.6 
(blue) and RCP8.5 (red). Black (grey shading) is the modelled historical evolution using historical 
reconstructed forcings. The mean and associated uncertainties averaged over 2081−2100 are given for all 
RCP scenarios as colored vertical bars. The numbers of CMIP5 models used to calculate the multi-model 
mean is indicated. For sea ice extent (b), the projected mean and uncertainty (minimum-maximum range) of 
the subset of models that most closely reproduce the climatological mean state and 1979‒2012 trend of the 
Arctic sea ice is given (number of models given in brackets). For completeness, the CMIP5 multi-model 
mean is also indicated with dotted lines. The dashed line represents nearly ice-free conditions (i.e., when 
sea ice extent is less than 106 km2 for at least five consecutive years). For further technical details see the 
Technical Summary Supplementary Material {Figures 6.28, 12.5, and 12.28–12.31; Figures TS.15, TS.17, 
and TS.20} 
 
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[INSERT FIGURE SPM.8 HERE] 
Figure SPM.8: Maps of CMIP5 multi-model mean results for the scenarios RCP2.6 and RCP8.5 in 2081–
2100 of (a) annual mean surface temperature change, (b) average percent change in annual mean 
precipitation, (c) Northern Hemisphere September sea ice extent and (d) change in ocean surface pH. 
Changes in panels (a), (b) and (d) are shown relative to 1986–2005. The number of CMIP5 models used to 
calculate the multi-model mean is indicated in the upper right corner of each panel. For panels (a) and (b), 
hatching indicates regions where the multi-model mean is small compared to internal variability (i.e., less 
than one standard deviation of internal variability in 20-year means). Stippling indicates regions where the 
multi-model mean is large compared to internal variability (i.e., greater than two standard deviations of 
internal variability in 20-year means) and where 90% of models agree on the sign of change (see Box 12.1). 
In panel (c), the lines are the modelled means for 1986−2005; the filled areas are for the end of the century. 
The CMIP5 multi-model mean is given in white colour, the projected mean sea ice extent of a subset of 
models (number of models given in brackets) that most closely reproduce the climatological mean state and 
1979‒2012 trend of the Arctic sea ice extent is given in light blue colour. For further technical details see the 
Technical Summary Supplementary Material. {Figures 6.28, 12.11, 12.22, and 12.29; Figures TS.15, TS.16, 
TS.17, and TS.20} 
 
[INSERT TABLE SPM.2 HERE] 
Table SPM.2: Projected change in global mean surface air temperature and global mean sea level rise for 
the mid- and late 21st century relative to the reference period of 1986–2005. {12.4; Table 12.2, Table 13.5} 
 
E.1 Atmosphere: Temperature 
 
Global surface temperature change for the end of the 21st century is likely to exceed 1.5°C relative 
to 1850 to 1900 for all RCP scenarios except RCP2.6. It is likely to exceed 2°C for RCP6.0 and 
RCP8.5, and more likely than not to exceed 2°C for RCP4.5. Warming will continue beyond 2100 
under all RCP scenarios except RCP2.6. Warming will continue to exhibit interannual-to-decadal 
variability and will not be regionally uniform (see Figures SPM.7 and SPM.8). {11.3, 12.3, 12.4, 
14.8} 
 
• 
The global mean surface temperature change for the period 2016–2035 relative to 1986–2005 
will likely be in the range of 0.3°C to 0.7°C (medium confidence). This assessment is based on 
multiple lines of evidence and assumes there will be no major volcanic eruptions or secular 
changes in total solar irradiance.  Relative to natural internal variability, near-term increases in 
seasonal mean and annual mean temperatures are expected to be larger in the tropics and 
subtropics than in mid-latitudes (high confidence). {11.3} 
 
• 
Increase of global mean surface temperatures for 2081–2100 relative to 1986–2005 is 
projected to likely be in the ranges derived from the concentration driven CMIP5 model 
simulations, that is, 0.3°C to 1.7°C (RCP2.6), 1.1°C to 2.6°C (RCP4.5), 1.4°C to 3.1°C 
(RCP6.0), 2.6°C to 4.8°C (RCP8.5). The Arctic region will warm more rapidly than the global 
mean, and mean warming over land will be larger than over the ocean (very high confidence) 
(see Figures SPM.7 and SPM.8, and Table SPM.2). {12.4, 14.8} 
 
• 
Relative to the average from year 1850 to 1900, global surface temperature change by the 
end of the 21st century is projected to likely exceed 1.5°C for RCP4.5, RCP6.0 and RCP8.5 
(high confidence). Warming is likely to exceed 2°C for RCP6.0 and RCP8.5 (high confidence), 
more likely than not to exceed 2°C for RCP4.5 (high confidence), but unlikely to exceed 2°C 
for RCP2.6 (medium confidence). Warming is unlikely to exceed 4°C for RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and 
RCP6.0 (high confidence) and is about as likely as not to exceed 4°C for RCP8.5 (medium 
confidence). {12.4} 
 
• 
It is virtually certain that there will be more frequent hot and fewer cold temperature extremes 
over most land areas on daily and seasonal timescales as global mean temperatures 
increase. It is very likely that heat waves will occur with a higher frequency and duration. 
Occasional cold winter extremes will continue to occur (see Table SPM.1). {12.4} 
 
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E.2 Atmosphere: Water Cycle 
 
Changes in the global water cycle in response to the warming over the 21st century will not be 
uniform. The contrast in precipitation between wet and dry regions and between wet and dry 
seasons will increase, although there may be regional exceptions (see Figure SPM.8). {12.4, 14.3} 
 
• 
Projected changes in the water cycle over the next few decades show similar large-scale 
patterns to those towards the end of the century, but with smaller magnitude. Changes in the 
near-term, and at the regional scale will be strongly influenced by natural internal variability 
and may be affected by anthropogenic aerosol emissions. {11.3} 
 
• 
The high latitudes and the equatorial Pacific Ocean are likely to experience an increase in 
annual mean precipitation by the end of this century under the RCP8.5 scenario. In many mid-
latitude and subtropical dry regions, mean precipitation will likely decrease, while in many mid-
latitude wet regions, mean precipitation will likely increase by the end of this century under the 
RCP8.5 scenario (see Figure SPM.8). {7.6, 12.4, 14.3} 
 
• 
Extreme precipitation events over most of the mid-latitude land masses and over wet tropical 
regions will very likely become more intense and more frequent by the end of this century, as 
global mean surface temperature increases (see Table SPM.1). {7.6, 12.4} 
 
• 
Globally, it is likely that the area encompassed by monsoon systems will increase over the 
21st century. While monsoon winds are likely to weaken, monsoon precipitation is likely to 
intensify due to the increase in atmospheric moisture. Monsoon onset dates are likely to 
become earlier or not to change much. Monsoon retreat dates will likely be delayed, resulting 
in lengthening of the monsoon season in many regions. {14.2} 
 
• 
There is high confidence that the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) will remain the 
dominant mode of interannual variability in the tropical Pacific, with global effects in the 21st 
century. Due to the increase in moisture availability, ENSO-related precipitation variability on 
regional scales will likely intensify. Natural variations of the amplitude and spatial pattern of 
ENSO are large and thus confidence in any specific projected change in ENSO and related 
regional phenomena for the 21st century remains low. {5.4, 14.4} 
 
E.3 Atmosphere: Air Quality 
 
 The range in projections of air quality (ozone and PM2.517 in near-surface air) is driven 
primarily by emissions (including CH4), rather than by physical climate change (medium 
confidence).  There is high confidence that globally, warming decreases background surface 
ozone. High CH4 levels (RCP8.5) can offset this decrease, raising background surface ozone 
by year 2100 on average by about 8 ppb (25% of current levels) relative to scenarios with small 
CH4 changes (RCP4.5, RCP6.0) (high confidence). {11.3 
 
 Observational and modelling evidence indicates that, all else being equal, locally higher 
surface temperatures in polluted regions will trigger regional feedbacks in chemistry and local 
emissions that will increase peak levels of ozone and PM2.5 (medium confidence). For PM2.5, 
climate change may alter natural aerosol sources as well as removal by precipitation, but no 
confidence level is attached to the overall impact of climate change on PM2.5 distributions. 
{11.3} 
 
E.4 Ocean 
 
                                                 
17 PM2.5 refers to particulate matter with a diameter of less than 2.5 micrometres, a measure of atmospheric 
aerosol concentration. 
Twelfth Session of Working Group I 
 
Approved Summary for Policymakers 
IPCC WGI AR5 
SPM-17 
27 September 2013 
The global ocean will continue to warm during the 21st century. Heat will penetrate from the 
surface to the deep ocean and affect ocean circulation. {11.3, 12.4} 
 
 The strongest ocean warming is projected for the surface in tropical and Northern Hemisphere 
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