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<p>www.pwc.co.uk/economics
UK Economic
Outlook
July 2016
Special features on:
• UK economic prospects after Brexit
• UK housing market outlook
• The Northern Powerhouse: past performance and future potential
Visit our blog for periodic updates at:
pwc.blogs.com/economics_in_business
2
UK Economic Outlook July 2016
Contents
Section
1. Summary
4
2. UK economic prospects after Brexit
7
• 2.1 Recent developments and the immediate impact of Brexit
8
• 2.2 Economic growth prospects after Brexit: national, sectoral and regional
10
• 2.3 Outlook for inflation and real earnings growth
14
• 2.4 Monetary and fiscal policy options
16
• 2.5 Summary and conclusions
16
3. UK housing market outlook
17
• Introduction and key findings
17
• 3.1 Recent housing market developments
18
• 3.2 House price prospects – the impact of Brexit
19
• 3.3 Renting for a generation? Housing affordability trends for first time buyers
24
• 3.4 Conclusion
27
• Technical annex: modelling methodologies
28
4. The Northern Powerhouse: past performance and future potential
30
• Key points and introduction
30
• 4.1 Comparative regional performance
31
• 4.2 Explaining the comparative performance of the Northern Powerhouse
33
• 4.3 Future employment growth potential of the Northern Powerhouse
35
• 4.4 Policy considerations
37
• 4.5 Conclusions
39
Appendices
A Outlook for the global economy
40
B UK economic trends: 1979-2015
41
Contacts and services
42
3
UK Economic Outlook July 2016
Highlights and key messages
for business and public policy
Key projections
2016
2017
Real GDP growth
1.6%
0.6%
Consumer spending growth
2.5%
1.3%
Inflation (CPI)
0.7%
1.8%
House price growth
3.1%
0.9%
Source: PwC main scenario projections
• UK economic growth had already
slowed from around 3% in 2014 to
around 2% before the EU referendum
due to slower global growth, but the
vote to leave the EU is likely to lead
to a significant further slowdown.
• In our main scenario, we now project
UK growth to slow to around 1.6% in
2016 and 0.6% i