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African Association of Agricultural Economists. Shaping the Future of African Agriculture for
Development: The Role of Social Scientists. Proceedings of the Inaugural Symposium, 6 to 8
December 2004, Grand Regency Hotel, Nairobi, Kenya
Explaining Poverty in Uganda: Evidence from the Uganda National Household Survey
David S. Kraybill and Bernard Bashaasha,
Bernard Bashaasha, Department of Agricultural Economics & Agribusiness, Makerere University
P.O. Box 7062, Kampala, Uganda, Tel: 077627249, E-mail: aspsmuk@infocom.co.ug
Abstract: The broad aim of the research was to establish a tool for identifying cost effective poverty alleviation
strategies in Uganda. The objectives were to test hypotheses on causes of poverty in Uganda and to develop a poverty
simulation model for policy analysis. Data for 9,710 households from the 2002/2003 Uganda National Household
Survey (UNHS) was used to estimate a semi-log econometric model. The model included 19 households’ level
characteristics and 8 community level characteristics as explanatory variables. The dependent variable was the natural
logarithm of household consumption per adult equivalent. The model was estimated at both national and regional (5
regions) by weighted least squares with robust variance. The results identified 8 particularly promising poverty
reducing policies namely: expansion of formal employment, secondary education, reduction in population growth, rural
electrification, off-farm activities, collateral free credit, telephone services and reducing distance to community
services. The study highlights the policy implications of the results.
Introduction
Poverty has risen in Africa, both as a share of the world’s total poor, and in absolute terms within Africa. By 2015, one
in every two poor people in the world will live in Africa, according to a recent World Bank report, whereas in the
1980s, only one in ten poor persons worldwide lived in Africa.
The Millennium Development Goals is an effort of the United