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National Security and Nuclear Weapons in
the 21st Century
September 2008
Foreword
In July 2007, along with Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice, we issued a statement that
summarized the need for maintaining a credible U.S. nuclear deterrent and urged
bipartisan Congressional support for the Reliable Replacement Warhead program. This
paper, National Security and Nuclear Weapons in the 21st Century, expands on the July
2007 statement by addressing in greater detail the considerations behind U.S.
requirements for nuclear weapons. The paper also describes the relationship among
strategic nuclear force structure, the stockpile of nuclear warheads, and the nuclear
warhead research and production infrastructure. We believe the logic presented here
provides a sound basis on which this and future administrations can consider further
adjustments to U.S. nuclear weapons policy, strategy, and force structure.
Many of the policy issues and strategic capabilities discussed in this paper are based on
the December 2001 Nuclear Posture Review and represent continuity with decisions
made by prior administrations. For example, the Clinton Administration developed the
“lead and hedge” strategy as a way to reduce the size of the deployed strategic nuclear
force, while also ensuring that the United States would be able to respond to future
challenges that could be more stressing than estimated at that time. Under this strategy
the United States would take the “lead” in nuclear reductions, but would “hedge” through
an inventory of non-deployed nuclear warheads and a force structure capable of
deploying those warheads. The current administration seeks to build on that approach by
relying, over time, more heavily on a responsive nuclear weapons design and
manufacturing infrastructure to manage risk, and less on an inventory of non-deployed
warheads.
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We believe that this approach continues to have merit. In the dynamic, unpred