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AN ANALYSIS OF DONALD TRUMP’S TAX PLAN
Jim Nunns, Len Burman, Jeff Rohaly, and Joe Rosenberg
December 22, 2015
ABSTRACT
This paper analyzes presidential candidate Donald Trump’s tax proposal. His plan would significantly reduce
marginal tax rates on individuals and businesses, increase standard deduction amounts to nearly four times
current levels, and curtail many tax expenditures. His proposal would cut taxes at all income levels, although
the largest benefits, in dollar and percentage terms, would go to the highest-income households. The plan
would reduce federal revenues by $9.5 trillion over its first decade before accounting for added interest
costs or considering macroeconomic feedback effects. The plan would improve incentives to work, save, and
invest. However, unless it is accompanied by very large spending cuts, it could increase the national debt by
nearly 80 percent of gross domestic product by 2036, offsetting some or all of the incentive effects of the
tax cuts.
We are grateful to Lily Batchelder, Howard Gleckman, Robert Greenstein, N. Gregory Mankiw, Eric Toder, and Roberton
Williams for helpful comments on earlier drafts. Lydia Austin and Blake Greene prepared the draft for publication and Kathy
Kelly edited it. The authors are solely responsible for any errors. The views expressed do not reflect the views of the Trump
campaign or those who kindly reviewed drafts. The Tax Policy Center is nonpartisan. Nothing in this report should be
construed as an endorsement of or opposition to any campaign or candidate. For information about the Tax Policy Center’s
approach to analyzing candidates’ tax plans, please see http://election2016.taxpolicycenter.org/engagement-policy/.
The findings and conclusions contained within are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect positions or policies of
the Tax Policy Center or its funders.
SUMMARY AND INTRODUCTION
Presidential candidate Donald Trump has proposed tax reforms that would significantly re