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<p> GREATER MANCHESTER STRATEGY PERFORMANCE FRAMEWORK REPORT June 2015 1 INTRODUCTION 1.1 The Greater Manchester Strategy (GMS) sets out our vision that by 2020, the Manchester city region will have pioneered a new model for sustainable economic growth based around a more connected, talented and greener city region, where all our residents are able to contribute to and benefit from sustained prosperity and a good quality of life. 1.2 In 2013 the GMS was refreshed based on a fresh analysis of the challenges and opportunities facing the city region to create Stronger Together, a new strategy for Greater Manchester. 1.3 This report provides a picture of our performance in implementing this strategy and how far we have come in achieving the overall vision of the GMS. 1.4 Stronger Together is centred on the priorities for Growth and Reform, bringing together our plans for reforming public services with a continued drive for growth and prosperity. Our objective is to sustain progress whilst eliminating the gap between the taxes we raise and the resources we expend on public services. We want to deliver services differently, more efficiently and reduce the level of demand for those services, by bringing more people into higher quality work. 1.5 Stronger Together sets out a series of strategic priorities to secure the sustainable economic growth of the city region and to enable the residents of Greater Manchester to access the opportunities that such growth represents. 1.6 These priorities also frame Greater Manchester's response to the wider productivity challenge faced by the UK as a whole: how to ensure that economic growth, and in particular increasing employment, translates into significantly improved productivity. 1.7 The Greater Manchester strategic agenda has evolved considerably since the refreshed strategy was first published, particularly in the light of the Greater Manchester Growth Deal, the Devolution Agreement and the recent Memorandum of Understanding between local authorities and health partners1. 1.8 The scale and speed of such developments emphasises the importance of knowing whether we are on track to deliver on our ambitions by 2020. In order to effectively monitor progress towards the delivery of these 1 The agreement is between the ten GM districts, the twelve GM Clinical Commissioning Groups and NHS England. ambitions, the GMS set out a series of Key Performance Indicators (KPIs) and a commitment to develop a high level performance framework. 1.9 This report and the associated summary tables provide a performance framework for the GMS. It provides an overarching commentary based on the summary tables which contain the KPIs and key milestones for each of the GMS strategic priorities. 1.10 This framework covers the GMS as a whole and has been designed to: be flexible enough to reflect ongoing developments; bring together a summary of delivery and reporting mechanisms already in place to provide a high level overview of progress across the whole GMS - and therefore to minimise additional reporting requirements; provide an accessible overview of delivery and performance across the strategy. 1.11 The report is set out in a number of sections to provide a clear picture of our performance. Section 2 is a dashboard summarising performance against the GMS headline performance indicators. This illustrates how far we have come in achieving our key outcomes and where we need to get to by 2020. Each indicator has been rated under a traffic light scheme as “red”, “amber” or “green” (RAG rating) to illustrate if performance is where we thought it should be at this stage or has fallen behind expectations. 1.12 Similarly, section 3 summarises performance against the seventeen GMS priorities by providing a RAG rating for each along with a brief commentary on whether work towards realising this priority is on track to achieve the strategy's outcomes by 2020. 1.13 Sections 4-7 provide a more detailed overview of performance across all the strategy's priorities structured around the headings of: Creating the Conditions for Growth Supporting Business Worklessness and Skills Building Independence and Raising Expectations through Public Sector Reform 1.13 These sections highlight key performance issues including areas where performance is on track or exceeded expectations along with areas where there is more to do. It also provides details of actions being taken to address any under performance and analysis of how best to do this. 2 GMS HEADLINE INDICATORS: PERFORMANCE JUNE 2015 Indicator Target Current position Where we expected to be at this stage RAG rating Data source Next update Number of full-time equivalent jobs GM will account for 4.3% of UK Full Time Equivalent jobs GM accounts for 4.13% of jobs in the UK, based on Jan-Dec 2014 Annual Population Survey. The target was to be at 4.15% by 2014. Annual Population Survey, Jan- Dec 2014 15 July & 14 Oct 15 Gross value added (GVA) GM’s GVA growth rate will match that of the South East of England (excluding London) Based on the latest ONS figures, GM's GVA grew by 4.6% (£2.5bn) between 2012 & 2013. This was above the South East growth rate of 2.8%. The target was for GVA to grow by 3.1% between 2012 & 2013, so GM is ahead of target. ONS, sub regional GVA estimates 2013 Dec 15 Out of work benefit claims For the gap between GM and the national average for the proportion of the working age population claiming key out of work benefits to reduce by 1 percentage point In November 2014 12.1% GM residents aged 16-64 out-of-work benefits (excluding universal credit) in GB it is 9.7% Difference between GM and GB 2.4%. In 2013 difference was 3.2% (GM 15.3%, GB at 12.1%) Note: If you add on people claiming UC and not in employment (and therefore likely to be claiming out of work benefits if UC didn't exist), the GM figure increases to 12.6% and for GB it rises to 9.8% - difference of 2.8 % The target was for the proportion of benefit claimants in GM to be at 15.0% in 2014. The corresponding figure for the UK was 11.8%, so both areas have seen sharper falls than expected. On track the gap with GB is narrowing. DWP Benefits Claimants, November 2014 Universal Credit Claimants, November 2014 12 Aug & 11 Nov 2015 Business start-up and survival For GM to have a higher rate of business births than the national average and business survival rates at one, two and five years match the national average Start-ups per 10,000 Working age population in GM stood at 84 in 2013, virtually in line with UK average of 85. 64 starts per 10,000 working age population in 2012. Note - business start ups have risen nationally as the new Pay As You Earn (PAYE) Real Time Information system rolled out during 2013. This increase is a positive sign that the economy is continuing in its recovery. ONS Business Demography 2013 Nov- Dec 2015 1yr survival rate in GM = 91.9% (UK at 91.2%) In 2013 GM was 0.6 percentage points behind the UK figure (86.1% versus 86.7%). Now 0.7% ahead, based on 2013 data. 2yr survival rate in GM = 73.0% (UK = 75.6%) GM was 1.1 percentage points behind the UK figure (72.7% versus 73.8%). Now 2.6% behind (2013). 5yr survival rate in GM = 38.7% (UK = 41.3%) When GMS target was set, GM was 2.9 percentage points behind the UK figure (42.1% versus 45.0%). Now 2.6% behind (2013). R Indicator Target Current position Where we expected to be at this stage RAG rating Data source Next update Qualification achievement % of working age population in GM with higher than an NVQ level 4 or equivalent matches UK average & % of working age population in GM with higher than NVQ level 2 or equiv match UK average 16-64 in GM with NVQ 4+ as of Jan- Dec 2014 = 31.9% (UK = 35.8%). In 2011 the GM figure was 29.7% compared to 32.6% in the UK. Target was for L4+ amongst people in GM aged 16-64 to be 32.1% in 2014, so it is 0.2pp behind where it wanted to be. Annual Population Survey Jan-Dec 2014 April 16 16-64 in GM with NVQ2+ as of Jan- Dec 2014 = 71.5% (UK = 73.1%). In 2011 the GM figure was 67.7% compared to 71.5% in the UK. Target was for GM to be at 70.2% in 2014, so it is ahead of target. Median salary GM median salary is 5% or less lower than the national median salary. Gross median annual salary for GM residents in 2014 was £24,945, 9% less than UK figure of £27,195. The gap has increased - in 2012 it was 7.6%. Target was for median annual salary in GM to be £25,700 in 2014, so it is slightly behind where it wanted to be. ONS 2014 Survey Hours & Earnings Dec 15 Early years foundation stage profile GM’s Early Years Foundation Stage Profile meets national average in prime areas of learning & literacy & maths 2014 56% of GM children achieved at least the expected level It is 60% nationally. (2013 figures: GM 47%, England 52% ). GM closed the gap with the national average by 1% between 2013 and 2014. Note: pre-2013 data is not comparable because of a methodology change Depart for Education Oct/No v 2015 All age all cause mortality Male AAACM is 1066, Female AAACM is 794 in 2020 As of 2013, male AAACM was 1292 and female AAACM was 990 2 Figures re-based to reflect changes in the way AAACM is calculated. GM's target was for AAACM to fall by 4.1.% for both males and females. It actually fell by 1.0% for males and 1.8% for females. Using the amended methodology, 2013 target: male AAACM -1252 , females - 932. Health & Social Care Information Centre Feb 2016 2 Since the original GMS targets were set there has been a change in the way the Office for National Statistics calculate mortality statistics. These statistics are standardised using a generic population profile so that the metrics can be compared across different areas of the UK or with other European countries. The original population profile was created in 1976 and since then the population has changed significantly and in 2013 a new standard profile was created. This has resulted in the numerical value of the new metrics being significantly higher than previously and therefore the GMS targets have been recalculated using the new approach. R Indicator Target Current position Where we expected to be at this stage RAG rating Data source Next update Crime levels GM has closed the crime- rate gap with the average of the most similar metropolitan forces. Current base of 2% above average. 2014/15 provisional rate is 738/10,000 population in GM, compared to 633 in the West Midlands and 701 in West Yorkshire. GM's rate is 16% higher than that of the West Midlands and 5% higher than West Yorkshire's. 3 GM target to achieve greater reductions in crime than comparator force areas - West Yorkshire & the West Midlands. Whilst levels of recorded crime in the last twelve months have increased (relative to elsewhere), this is in part a reflection of greater compliance with the National Crime Recording Standard, following recent inspections. ONS and Home Office iquanta Official update s quarter ly next July 2015 Transport See an increase in non- car journeys to work across GM so that 35% of all peak-time journeys are made by modes other than private car Rolling average for 2013 (latest data available) is 28%. This is up on a 2010 base of 26%. Increase is in line with a projection to 35% by 2020, but data still early for firm trend to be confirmed. Oct - Dec 2013 ONS Labour Force Survey Oct - Dec 2015 Net new houses built 61,000 homes built between 2013 and 2020. 4,160 net new dwellings in 2013/14, down on the 2012/13 figure of 5,350. Target was for 5,000 net homes to be built in 2014 in GM. DCLG June 15 CO2 emissions CO2 emissions 48% lower than 1990 levels. 2012 CO2 emissions were around 16,000kt.CO2, 24% lower than 1990 Target was to be at 15,000 kt CO2 in 2012. DECC June 15 3 The GM target was set in terms of achieving reductions in the total crime rate in GM against comparator areas in West Yorkshire and West Midlands, but this does not take account of local priorities or changes and differences in the reporting and recording of crime. In particular GMP, local authorities and other agencies in GM are now significantly focussed on tackling drivers such as troubled families and on safeguarding people through multi-agency action and public service reform. It would now seem appropriate to review the target and measure to develop an indicator that is more meaningful for assessing the progress of the GMS and public service reform in terms of its impact on crime and crime drivers. In the meantime however GMP together with other agencies have taken action to promote the reporting and recording of underreported crimes of harm such as domestic abuse. This together with rises in the reporting of historical crime and action to ensure greater compliance with the National Crime Recording Standard has raised the reporting and recording of crime in GM. R 3 PERFORMANCE AT A GLANCE GMS Priority RAG Rating Brief Performance Commentary to explain the overall rating: is the scale of activity being undertaken under each priority is on track to achieve the Strategy's outcomes by 2020? (GMS1) Reshaping our economy to meet new global demands GM's high level policy and research work delivered under this priority has given, and continues to give, GM firm foundations and a robust evidence base to lobby government, building upon our recent Growth and Devolution deals. LEAD: GMIST and PSR Policy Teams & New Economy (GMS2) Delivering an investment strategy based on market needs Work on investment has been highly successful, with GM on track to commit and spend key investment funds. Government and clients alike view the GM Investment Fund approach as an example of national good practice. LEAD: GM Investment Team (GMS3) Revitalising our town centres Excellent progress has been made to develop a collaborative GM work programme and town centre investment pipeline, but this has yet to impact on the chosen KPIs around business stock and employment in town centres - this performance reflects national trends. LEAD: GM Planning and Housing team (GMS4) Creating the spaces and places that will nurture success Work to deliver the GM's statutory spatial framework is agreed and on track. LEAD: GM Planning and Housing team (GMS5) Stimulating and reshaping our housing market An innovative market-focused solution has been developed via the Housing Investment Fund (part of GM's Devolution Agreement) which together with the work of GM Place will begin to address market failure. But this will take some time to impact on the KPI of new homes built. LEAD: GM Planning and Housing team (GMS6) Crafting a plan for growth and infrastructure GM's work on infrastructure has national profile, and a GM infrastructure map has been produced. This work is informing the development of the GM spatial framework. LEAD: GM Planning and Housing team (GMS7) Improving connectivity locally, nationally and internationally A long-established priority for GM, the city region has an excellent track record in delivering transport schemes and successfully bidding for funds to invest in further schemes. Through the Devolution Agreement, GMCA has secured government support for legislation to move to a franchised model of bus service delivery, alongside the future local management of rail stations and closer working arrangements between TfGM and Highways England. Lead: Transport for Greater Manchester. (GMS8) Placing our city region at the leading edge of science and technology Work to secure investment at scale in GM's science sector has been embedded within strategic priorities GMS2 around investment and GMS10 through support of the manufacturing sector. Activity under this priority gives GM a coordinated and effective approach to opportunities such as the City of Science designation and ensuring that GM continues to reap commercial advantage from Graphene. LEAD: New Economy (GMS9) Building our global brand Significant progress has been made to align media and marketing activity to target GM's key growth sectors. Good progress has also been made in promoting GM as a conference, business and leisure visitor destination. GM is also trialling innovative ways of developing our brand. LEAD: Marketing Manchester (GMS10) Supporting business growth with strong, integrated support GM has pioneered a way of delivering of tailored business support to GM firms through its Business Growth Hub. As part of the Devolution Agreement business support budgets will be devolved from 2017. The service has bedded-in, and early indications are that the services are beginning to gain traction on long standing challenge of business survival. LEAD: Business Growth Hub (GMS11) Improving our international competitiveness There has been strong performance against GM's agreed internationalisation plan, and this coupled with work on encouraging GM firms to support and businesses to relocate to GM has been extremely successful. The Devolution Agreement's provision offers further opportunity to integrate the national UK trade and Industry Service locally will further enhance performance. LEAD: MIDAS (GMS12) Seizing the growth potential of a low carbon economy and increased resource efficiency Whilst GM's low carbon ambitions are clearly articulated, GM has struggled on two fronts: first, identifying a pipeline of investible low carbon propositions; and secondly ensuring that the vast array of work delivered under this priority is aligned and would impact on the aspirations of GM's Climate Change Strategy. A robust evidence base – the 'wedges work' is now in place - which measures how interventions will deliver against GM's carbon reduction targets. LEAD: Environment Team, New Economy (GMS13) Delivering an employer-led skills programme The GM Skills and Employment Partnership brokers relationships between providers and employers to ensure that GM has the skills system to meet its growth aspirations. This work has been given a significant boost by the Devolution Agreement which has given GM some powers to reshape and restructure further education provision. However the sheer scale of the challenge, and in particular the demands of engaging with so many SME's and micro businesses, suggests that a keen eye needs to be kept on the progress of this work. LEAD: Skills Team, New Economy (GMS14) Preventing and reducing youth unemployment The GM Skills and Employment Partnership is overseeing the development of an integrated suite of interventions designed to assist the hardest to help young people including activity funded by the new European Social Funds programme. However the KPIs for this priority, particularly around achieving the desired reduction of NEET young people (those who are not in education, employment or training) indicate that significant challenges remain. LEAD: Skills Team, New Economy (GMS15) Delivering an integrated approach to employment and skills Through the Devolution Agreement GM has secured some budgets and responsibilities that will help to shape national employment and skills provision to better align it to local priorities. However, reform of the skills system as a whole will require a much broader approach to devolution than currently proposed. Greater control or influence than over the skills system as a whole is required to ensure that it can be aligned to the needs of local employers and to integrate the skills system with other people based programmes. LEAD: Skills Team, New Economy (GMS16) Encouraging self-reliance and reducing demand through public service reform GM is nationally recognised for its work on public service reform (PSR) and has made huge strides in the way in which it supports districts to provide an integrated offer to GM's residents, an offer which will address the multiple challenges they often face. Although central work to support is progressing well, the scale and the complexity of the challenge faced by multiple public and voluntary sector organisations (including those supporting families, justice and rehabilitation, early years, work and skills and health and social care) means that GM has to continually innovate and maintain a sharp focus on delivering the identified outcomes. LEAD: Public Services Reform Team (GMS17) Reforming health and social care GM's recently signed Memorandum of Understanding with health partners offers the conurbation the unique ability to make the wholesale social and health care reforms required to improve the health and wellbeing of GM residents in a financially and clinically sustainably way. However, like GMS16 the scale of this challenge is one that cannot be underestimated, and its success is predicated on delivering a seamlessly integrated health and care offer, whose excellent outcomes will underpin the wider ambitions of GM's growth agenda. LEAD: Public Services Reform Team 4 CREATING THE CONDITIONS FOR GROWTH 4.1 We will only fulfil our growth potential if we create the conditions to make GM the investment destination of choice. The key elements of GM's approach can be summed up as follows: pursuing an innovative approach to investment which is focused on generating returns that can be recycled and reinvested, and so maximising the value of every pound spent. This approach ensures that scarce public resources are used to ensure our offer is market facing, informed and driven by the needs of the private sector and social entrepreneurs; supporting those sectors in which GM has a competitive advantage, such as health and life sciences, creative and digital and financial and professional services so they can compete nationally and internationally; creating safe, sustainable, healthy places for people to live by building enough homes of the type and tenure needed to attract new residents to live in GM, and improve existing residents' quality of life; developing a strategic approach to land use planning and infrastructure (including transport) across the conurbation to ensure that we create places that places that work well for residents and businesses; and delivering an integrated transport network across GM, linked into wider inter-city transport networks, that better serves the economic aspirations of the city region. 4.2 To deliver this ambitious agenda nine priorities focused on investment and place describe the activities that need be delivered. They are: 4.3 Excellent progress has been made in delivering the strategic priorities under this heading. Two key developments have been key to this success: first of all Greater Manchester’s Growth and Reform Plan which formed the basis for GM’s two successful bids into the Growth Fund; and secondly, the signing of the first city region Devolution Agreement in November 2014. The Growth and Reform Plan identified CREATING THE CONDITIONS FOR GROWTH (GMS 1) Reshaping our economy to meet new global demands (GMS 2) Delivering an investment strategy based on market needs (GMS 3) Revitalising our town centres (GMS 4) Creating the spaces and places that will nurture success (GMS 5) Stimulating and reshaping our housing market (GMS 6) Crafting a plan for growth and infrastructure (GMS 7) Improving connectivity locally, nationally and internationally (GMS 8) Placing our city region at the leading edge of science and technology (GMS 9) Building our global brand a number of key priorities for investment to support and accelerate the growth of the city region, including investment to: meet the transport and connectivity requirements of GM; further develop our business support and skills capacity to meet the needs of employers; and fill gaps in the region’s life science offer and the eco-system associated with Graphene. GM was extremely successful with these bids and was awarded of two substantial Local Growth Funding packages worth £476.7m under round 1 (the largest in the country); and £56.6m in round 2. GM has worked collaboratively to prioritise these investment's to maximise their impact on the conurbation's productivity. 4.4 Over recent years, GMCA has overseen the largest transport investment programme outside London, supported principally by the locally driven Greater Manchester Transport Fund. The 2014 Growth Deal secured a funding base for a further £350 million major scheme transport programme to 2020, in addition to further minor works funding, supported by the Growth Deal and Cycle City Ambition Grants, totalling c.£70 million over the next 3 years. The Devolution Agreement also gives a significant boost to GM's transport priorities by: providing additional resources through a reformed and simplified 'earn back' deal worth £900m over 30 years, funding the delivery of the Trafford Park Metrolink extension and the SEMMMS scheme; and, giving GM new powers to better manage and integrate transport across the conurbation, including the future power to introduce franchised bus services, local management of GM rail stations and strengthened partnership arrangements with Highways England, which will give a more joined-up approach to management of and investment in the city region's strategic road network. 4.5 GM's excellent track record in securing funding, together with the freedoms and flexibilities secured in the Devolution Agreement are reflected in the performance summary for the transport strategic priority (GMS 7). This notes progress in all transport related milestones and performance indicators. 4.6 There is also a very positive story to tell about GM's investment priority (GMS 2). The Greater Manchester Investment Fund (GMIF) is now well established. This “virtual pool” of funding delivers GM's Investment Strategy under the direction of the GMCA and the GM Local Enterprise Partnership. This work is managed by the GM investment team on the GMCA's and LEP's behalf, supporting the development and delivery of a project pipeline from across GM. The GMIF comprises a range of funds that are both internally and externally managed. The internally managed funds are: £65m of Regional Growth Funding (RGF) awarded in rounds 2 and 3 to help local businesses grow; £34.6m of Growing Places (GP) funding which supports developers to tackle the infrastructure constraints of key housing or employment sites; and, receipts repaid RGF and GP funded loans which have begun to recycle ahead of schedule but the sums will increase substantially from 2016 onwards. RGF funds are now fully invested and work is progressing to ensure the continued capacity and capability to invest. There has been a delay in investing GP funds caused by a necessary focus on investing Evergreen Funds which are time limited. Work is ongoing to develop a revised investment strategy for Growing Places. 4.7 The externally managed funds comprise: £61m of Evergreen funding used to develop commercial property across GM and the wider North West region. The fund is managed by CBRE; £20m of the GM loan fund sources from a combination of RGF and GM funding streams. This fund is managed by Maven Capital Partners. Outside the GMIF funds, the North West Fund is a £155m fund targeted at small and medium sized enterprises (SMEs). It is funded from the 2007-2013 European Regional Development Fund programme. It is a private sector organisation albeit publicly funded. £120m has been invested to date (77% of the total fund). 4.8 Three further areas of investment activity are worth noting. First, the development of a Life Sciences Investment Fund established in partnership with Cheshire and Warrington with Growth Deal funding. This will provide £20m of investment in Greater Manchester to support GM's growing cluster of businesses and high level expertise in the life sciences sector. This fund will help accelerate priority GMS8 which seeks to place GM at the leading edge of science and technology. Second, establishing a £300m recyclable housing investment fund, agreed as part of the Devolution Deal which will accelerate the delivery of new homes in GM (GMS5). And third, the development of two new investment funds (North West Fund / Evergreen 2 and Low Carbon) and are likely to be in the region of £90m, and are part of GM's new European Regional Development Fund programme. These funds will support investment in employment sites, infrastructure and low carbon projects and will contribute to GM's economic and low carbon goals. However, their development has been subject to delays caused by legal and strategic issues beyond GM's control, in particular whether the funds' managers need to be re-procured. Currently GM's efforts are focused on minimising the impact of this delay, but there is a funding gap caused by the success of the existing North West Evergreen 1 fund (which is fully committed) and the opening of the new Evergreen 2 and low carbon funds. 4.9 The development of a GM Spatial Framework (GMS4) is supported by three other priorities: GMS3 which focuses on collaborative efforts to revitalise GM's principal town centres;4 GMS5 the principal aim of which is to stimulate the building of homes across different tenure types in places people want to live; and GMS6 which recognises the importance of maintaining high quality and resilient infrastructure in driving economic growth. GM's commitment to developing a strategic planning framework for the conurbation was strengthened by the Devolution Agreement's provision for GM's elected mayor to create a statutory spatial framework, subject to a unanimous vote of the Mayor's cabinet of ten district leaders. 4.10 Work on all four of these priorities is progressing well, in line with the agreed timetable. It should be noted however that the key performance indicator on housing completions is rated red (GMS5), while two under GMS3 - employment in town principal centres, and business stock in town centres - are both also flagged as red. Obviously this performance gives some cause for concern, but in all three instances GM's performance mirrors national trends. And it does serve to reinforce the importance of our work to find collaborative solutions to address these issues. The Devolution Agreement provides for GM to establish a new housing investment fund, which is a cornerstone of GM's approach to promoting housing growth. Over the ten year life of the £300m fund it is anticipated that through recycling that £750m will be invested in housing delivery. The fund will address constraints within the housing finance market, and hence unlock the delivery of housing across the conurbation, and will form an important part of the wider GM Place initiative. This initiative brings combines Homes and Communities Agency (HCA), district and GMCA capacity working alongside with investors, house builders (both volume and smaller companies), as well as infrastructure providers and public sector landowners. to provide an integrated, collaborative approach to bringing housing development forward, 4.11 GMS8 continues focuses on raising the scale, productivity and profile of science and technology in GM. Plans to establish the Sir Henry Royce Institute for Materials Research and Innovation were announced by Government in December 2014. Focused in Manchester, with satellite centres or “spokes” in Sheffield, Leeds and Liverpool, the Institute will integrate the strengths of academia and industry across the North, and the UK as a whole. Health North, the world’s first partnership to use large-scale data to drive public sector reform in health and social care across a 15 million-strong population in the North of England. This will build on the North’s strengths in health science, enabling better care for patients, and promoting innovation through analysis of data on the effectiveness of different drugs, 4 These are: Altrincham, Ashton, Bolton, Bury, Oldham, Rochdale, Stockport and Wigan. treatments and health pathways. The first phase of this (£20m to establish four ‘Connected Health Cities’) is in progress. Funding for the Graphene Engineering Innovation Centre has now been agreed as part of GM's Growth Deal. This centre will ensure that GM is able to take full advantage of Graphene's economic potential. GM's Manufacturing Strategy is agreed and its recommendations to support the sector are being taken forward as a strand of business support activity (reported under GMS10 supporting business). Now similar work is underway to develop an agreed approach to the digital, creative and technology sector. 4.12 GM recognises the importance of developing a strong, vibrant, global brand, one which will attract investors, talent and visitors work to support this is captured in GMS 9. Activities are focused on coordinated activities in GM's key sectors and target markets. For instance in 2016 Manchester is European City of Science which presents an exciting opportunity to showcase the city region's science and innovation assets (work being taken forward under GMS8). 4.13 Finally it is worth noting that GM continues to innovate with its policy development and evidence base. GMS1 draws attention to two pieces of work which will help ensure that there is a clear link between policy and outcomes. The development of an evidence base to underpin an 'accelerated growth scenario' will enable us to forecast the impact of GM's growth and reform agenda in economic terms; while the 'closing the gap work' will make sure that GM's increased control of public spending results in the desired outcomes: to improve residents' lives, increase the GM tax take, and raises the conurbation's productivity. 5 SUPPORTING BUSINESS 5.1 Evidence shows that GM is the UK city region outside of London most likely to be able to increase its long term growth rate, access international networks and contribute significantly to continued economic recovery. To stand the best chance of delivering this growth it is essential that our business support infrastructure and services are strengthened further, and are seamlessly integrated with nationally delivered services. The three priorities under this heading (and listed in the box below) are focused on ensuring that GM's business support offer: meets local needs and priorities; encourages firms to become more international in their outlook and exploits the commercial opportunities of a low carbon economy. Taken together activity to deliver these priorities will both help local businesses grow, but also to become more productive. 5.2 There has been good progress made in this area. The 'Manchester Family' of companies (MIDAS, Marketing Manchester, Visit Manchester and New Economy), along with Economic Solutions (ESL), have been brought together into a streamlined group structure under the umbrella of the Manchester Growth Company. This reorganisation has facilitated the alignment of strategic objectives and work programmes under a single business plan and has also allowed efficiencies to be made in back-office operations. Joint-working has been further enhanced by the co-location of ESL’s International Trade team, MIDAS and Marketing Manchester in the same offices. Indeed, Manchester's approach to the delivery of business support, inward investment, marketing and intelligence is viewed and promoted as a model of good practice nationally. 5.3 There has been some excellent progress made towards achieving GM's goal to secure greater local control over business support spend (GMS 10 and 11). The Devolution Agreement makes provision for business support budgets to be fully devolved by 2017. Additional negotiations with government are ensuring that collaborative working arrangements with nationally providers of growth services (including Growth Accelerator, Manufacturing Advisory Service and trade services) are tailored to GM's needs within the constraints of existing contracts in the period before 2017. 5.4 Securing continuity of funding for current business support provision presents a strategic challenge for GM. Although we were awarded a modest £625k of revenue support for our Business Growth Hub as part of Growth Deal negotiations, delays to the start of the new European funding programme present a risk for GM. Our business support programme will be enhanced by European funding, however delays to the start of the programme mean that activity will only be contracted by September 2015 at the earliest with newly commissioned activity scheduled to start in October 2015. To ensure there is no gap in provision we have negotiated greater flexibility with existing funding sources. 5.5 GM has supported a successful £19.5m Regional Growth Fund bid to continue its ground-breaking work to support the textiles sector nationally. The sector includes a broad spectrum of activity, from firms from producing traditional materials and products, to those involved in advanced manufacturing who work with smart textiles for use within the medical, aerospace, and automotive sectors. GM has also secured SUPPORTING BUSINESS (GMS 10) Supporting business growth with strong, integrated support (GMS 11) Improving our international competitiveness (GMS 12) Seizing the growth potential of a low carbon economy and increased resource efficiency further Regional Growth Fund support for its City Export Fund which will provide financial support to help GM firms to begin or scale up export activity. Support to firms to encourage them to export is progressing well. Although performance is above target, it should be noted that GM's firms significantly under perform on this metric compared to the national average and significant further work is required to close that gap. Work in this area complements the implementation of GM's Internationalisation Strategy which identified six key markets to focus resources to encourage export and inward investment activity.5 Work under this strategic priority is closely aligned with activity to raise the profile of GM's global brand reported under GMS9. 5.6 Three of GMS10's business support KPIs (those around the number of business start ups, the numbers of businesses offered funding and the amount of funding offered) have been subject to some decline in performance. This is due to a tightening up of start up loan criteria by BIS which has resulted in a reduction in start up loans offered by Business Finance Solutions. Whilst this has adversely impacted on the number of new start ups it will help ensure that those start ups that are supported are sustainable. In addition, it is vital that the delay in establishing the North West (Evergreen) Fund (see GMS2) is minimised to ensure that a full range of financial products are available to GM businesses to support growth. GM now has a one year survival rate for businesses which is 0.7% ahead of the UK average (based on 2013 data). This is a real achievement and this improvement could well reflect the impact of Business Growth Hub support, however survival rates for businesses at two and five years are poor. Here we need to redouble our efforts to improve and integrate GM's business support offer. 5.7 GM has set out challenging targets around the low carbon agenda, seeking to reduce carbon emissions by 48% by 2020 (set out in GMS12). The Low Carbon Hub is overseeing an ambitious and wide ranging programme of work to help deliver this target. The most recent figures (from 2012) indicate that we have reduced emissions by 24% to 16,000kt; our target was to be at 15,000kt by this date. There have been challenges in delivering some aspects of this programme: in particular GM's Green Deal - like other Green Deal areas - has struggled to meet targets; we have also identified that financial products used to support low carbon schemes need to take account of the longer pay back times and capture the broader environmental benefits. Again, this is a challenge being faced nationally. In response to these challenges GM has set up a low carbon project development 5 The six target markets are: Europe, USA, China, Brazil, United Arab Emirates, and India. unit supported by £3m European funding who have been tasked with developing a pipeline of low carbon projects. 6 WORKLESSNESS AND SKILLS 6.1 The Greater Manchester Strategy clearly identifies the skills and employment challenges faced by GM: first we have too many residents have low skills levels and high rates of economic inactivity; and second our skills and employment system is fragmented, and fails to deliver what the GM economy needs. These issues contribute significantly to the productivity gap between GM and the rest of the UK. Three cross- cutting priorities frame GM's approach to tackling this challenge, they are: 6.2 To successfully deliver these priorities all partners across GM, along with national agencies and government, need to work together. Evidence suggests that it is only through the greater integration of the skills and employment systems that more people will be supported into work and progress in the workplace. The employment and skills reforms that form part of GM's Devolution Agreement are a vote of confidence in GM's approach to this policy theme. The agreement provides some of the levers required to better integrate the employment and skills landscape in GM, and to deliver improved services and ultimately better outcomes for GM residents and employers. Areas of work that GM is expanding under the freedoms and flexibilities in our Devolution Agreement include: Enabling GM to re-shape the post 19 skills system to make sure that it best meets residents' needs enabling them to move into work or continue in education; Working with the Department of Work and Pensions to co- commission new Work Programme provision, to ensure it best meets GM's needs by dovetailing with local provision such as Working Well; Making sure that the Apprenticeship Grant for Employers (AGE) is aligned with broader support for GM residents and business needs. It is also worth noting that there has been the considerable investment of Growth Deal Funds in the estate of GM's further education providers. This, together with other funding streams, form a £63m capital investment programme helping to strengthen the skills provider base. WORKLESSNESS AND SKILLS (GMS13) Delivering an employer-led skills programme (GMS14) Preventing and reducing youth unemployment (GMS15) Delivering an integrated approach to employment and skills 6.3 However, the KPIs for GMS13 and 14 around skills levels for GM residents, and those relating to young people are all currently rated amber. This performance reflects the scale and complexity of the GM skills challenge. To reform the skills system effectively GM will require a much broader approach to devolution than currently proposed. The current GM Devolution Agreement excludes over 60% of education and training spend in GM for 16-24 year olds (e.g. apprenticeships are out of scope) and there are wider challenges relating to the education and skills system as a whole (including schools, colleges and higher education) that we are not yet empowered to address. We need greater control or influence over the whole skills system to ensure that it effectively drives productivity by aligning it with the needs of our local labour markets and by integrating the skills system with other people based programmes. We need greater flexibility regarding where and how public investment is made, together with greater levels of employer involvement and investment. We will continue to lobby Government for these additional powers. 6.4 European funding will provide additional investment across the three skills priorities, and this will be matched by national delivery organisations. Considerable efforts have been made to influence these providers so ensure what is delivered, in GM, is tailored to meet the needs of GM residents and businesses. A noteworthy feature of our skills activity is the way that delivery is firmly grounded in the needs of the local economy. So, for instance, GM has developed bespoke skills strategies focusing on growth sectors such as NW high speed rail, manufacturing and engineering, whilst other activity focuses the skills requirements of flagship projects such as the Airport City enterprise zone. GM recognises the importance of reducing the number of young people who are NEET (not in education, employment or training) and has designed a programme of interventions including appropriate advice and guidance, mentoring and a more effectively coordinated approach to tracking NEET young people's outcomes. By intervening early with effective interventions it is hoped that NEET young people will be able to successfully progress into work, which is altogether the best outcome for both the individual and GM's economy. 7 BUILDING INDEDPENDENCE AND RAISING EXPECTATIONS THROUGH PUBLIC SECTOR REFORM 7.1 The Greater Manchester Strategy, Stronger Together, and our Growth and Reform Plan set out how we will achieve our ambitions. We are delivering growth, investing in infrastructure, skills and businesses. But to realise our ambition, we need to connect people to the opportunities that this growth brings. To do this, we need to support our people to become independent and self-reliant. By increasing independence and self-reliance we aim to reduce demand for expensive, reactive public services. 7.2 GM was the first place in the UK to put the reform of public services at the heart of its work to grow our economy. It is only by doing this that we will connect GM's residents to the opportunities that this growth will generate, and enable residents to lead more productive and fulfilling lives. Work on public service reform covers a wide range of issues including the national troubled families programme, employment and skills reform (linked to GMS priorities 13, 14 and 15), reforming justice and rehabilitation, and reforming early years provision. Together, these areas of work are helping develop local responses to tackling complex dependency and helping individuals and families turn their lives around. Central to this agenda is the role that the health sector has (including primary, acute and social care) to support individuals to have greater control of their lives with better levels of health. Two multi- themed strategic priorities describe GM's work, they are: 7.3 Since the GMS refresh in 2013 our work on public sector reform has been given further impetus by the Devolution Agreement. This has given GM a number of freedoms and flexibilities: the scaling up of our work on complex dependency (though the expansion of the Working Well programme); the co-commissioning of the next phase of the Work Programme; and the redesign of the FE system to give a more integrated employment and skills system. Devolution also provides an opportunity to further develop our early years strategy, designing a model to work with schools to intervene earlier with children and families in need of support. 7.4 Work on public services reform is fully integrated with our work to improve our skills and employment provision, particularly that delivered under GMS13 and 14. For many individuals it is impossible to access skills and employment support until other issues (for instance health, housing, or domestic violence) have been appropriately addressed. A substantial programme of public service reform activity is now underway, overseen by the director of public service reform. Underpinning public service reform across Greater Manchester are three core principles: Integration of all public services, enabling key-workers to develop bespoke packages of support for individuals and BUILDING INDEDPENDENCE AND RAISING EXPECTATIONS THROUGH PUBLIC SECTOR REFORM (GMS16) Encouraging self-reliance and reducing demand through public service reform. • Working with troubled families • Improving early years • Transforming the justice system (GMS17) Reforming health and social care families, ensuring the right support, in the right sequence is available at the right time. Deploying evidence-based interventions, building our reform programme on an understanding of what works. Intervening on the basis of whole families not just individuals. The work of the GM public services reform team oversees the delivery of GM programmes and also provides support to districts to help with the redesign of local services. 7.5 Work is progressing well across the thematic workstreams that underpin this work. For instance in early years we have been testing a new integrated approach to delivering early years services in places across GM. Early evidence suggests positive outcomes for children, parents and service providers. Our Devolution Agreement has offered us the opportunity to significantly extend the groups eligible for support using our Working Well model. This will give us the chance to support up to 50,000 residents who have not progressed into work after two years of support from the government's Work Programme. GM has been extremely successful in delivering its Troubled Families programme. 7,765 families have been turned through the support of our coordinated programme of activity. GM is the only area in the country to have been selected as a whole region to be an early adopter for phase 2 of the national programme is indicative of the confidence shown in our ability to deliver. We are continuing to discuss with Government areas for further reform and good progress in existing reform programmes such as Working Well and Troubled Families provides GM with valuable evidence and credibility to continue this discussion. Our work to date has had impact, but to deliver our ambition, we need to increase the pace and scale of reform. Over the next two years, we will focus on two central issues that sit at the heart of the public service challenge: tackling issues of complex dependency to move people towards employment; and integrating health and social care, ensuring preventative and reactive services are available in the right place at the right time. 7.6 The overarching aim of GMS17 is to improve the health and wellbeing of GM residents, by providing an integrated system of health and social care that responds more effectively and efficiently to their needs. As GM has some of the worst health outcomes and largest health inequalities in the UK, the focus of this work is to develop a more coherent and integrated system that places a strong emphasis on the promotion of wellbeing and the prevention of ill health. Prior to February 2015 the principal workstreams within this strategic priority were twofold: first, supporting districts to develop integrated health and care plans; and secondly, supporting the Healthier Together programme. However, the signing of Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) between the ten GM districts, the GM Clinical Commissioning Groups and NHS England in February 2015, has significantly changed the scale and pace of GM’s aspirations about health and social care. 7.7 The overarching purpose of the MoU give is to ensure the greatest and fastest possible improvement to the health and wellbeing of GM, by devolving control of the existing resources of around £6bn to GM by 2016. The scope of MoU is comprehensive and will involve the whole health and social care system, including: acute care; primary care; community services; mental health services; social care; public health; health education; and research and development. 7.8 A programme of work has been developed to support the delivery of the aims and objectives of the MoU, focussing on 5 core workstreams: The development of a strategic (sustainability) plan – this will provide a comprehensive strategic plan for health and social care, aligned to the NHS 5 Year Forward View, setting out how a clinically and financially sustainable landscape of commissioning and provision can be achieved across GM. Individual Locality Plans will be developed for the ten localities, which will reflect and be consistent with the GM Plan, but which will also reflect local priorities; Establishing the governance and accountability framework – to put in place appropriate decision making structures, making the necessary changes in legislation and working with other organisations within the health system to make sure we are able to develop the health and social care system that GM needs; Devolving Responsibilities and Resources - this will determine how commissioning responsibilities should be taken forward under these new arrangements, what areas falls within and scope of the agreement, and how these will be funded. Developing a communication and partnership engagement strategy – this workstream will focus on ensuring that there is a coherent and strategic approach to communications, engagement and partnership development. Early Implementation Projects – focusing on projects where early progress can be made using the new devolved arrangements to tackle some of GM's most pressing challenges (at scale) through the use of the new devolved arrangements. 7.9 The performance of this strategic priority has to focus on whether the agreed milestones, and their associated outcomes/outputs are on track, rather than a focus on system performance metrics. Since the signing of the MoU in February work has progressing well, and is on track to meet the deadlines prescribed within the MoU. 8 CONCLUSION 8.1 This report provides an overview of performance against the Greater Manchester Strategy, a strategy which sets out an enormously ambitious programme of work with similarly challenging targets. It reviews high level performance across a wide ranging collection of interventions, which when taken together seek to deliver GM’s growth and reform ambitions. 8.2 It should be noted that we will continue to strengthen performance management arrangements as we progress GM's devolution agenda. By doing this we will demonstrate whether the chosen suite of interventions are achieving the desired outcomes for GM. We are building on best practice of existing performance management arrangements within GM: for instance the Skills and Employment Partnership's Performance Board; and the Manchester Growth Company's thematic advisory boards. Learning from best practice is particularly important as we develop GM's approach to health and social care. Work is underway to refine the high level performance management of this priority, which when complete will help promote the wider understanding and greater transparency of this particularly complex area of work. 8.3 Evaluation is also crucial and so GM has been working with government to develop an evaluation framework for the Devolution Agreement. Given its scale, scope and innovative nature, there is an opportunity through effective evaluation to capture learning from GM’s Devolution Deal to shape future programme and policy design both in GM and across the UK. Our evaluation and monitoring framework aims to provide evidence on: whether the devolving of power and responsibilities across a number of policy areas has created synergies, efficiencies, and more effective decision-making and service delivery in GM; whether the devolution deal has resulted in better outcomes for GM’s residents and businesses; and the effectiveness of both Government and GM in implementing the devolution deal. 8.4 Performance across the piece is strong and the information set out in sections 2 and 3 confirms this. Progress against the GMS primary and secondary measures is largely positive and GM's GVA growth rate, the trajectory of which is well ahead of target, is particularly noteworthy. However, there are two areas in particular where we need to press government for greater freedoms and flexibilities to help us achieve our goals. 8.5 Firstly, the numbers of new homes built in GM have remained stubbornly low. We recognise that this is a national issue but local solutions need to be developed to accelerate the delivery of new housing. These new homes have to be of the right quality, in the right places and of the right tenure type. Our work with GM Place and the new housing investment fund begins to address some of the failures of the current system: by creating new development models; tackling financial barriers and easing the development process. However the investment fund will only deliver 15,000 new homes over the ten year life of the fund. Much more needs to be done if we are to respond to this challenge at the scale needed. We need to increase the numbers of new homes built from the current base of around four thousand homes a year to at least ten thousand. We will continue to press government on this issue and work jointly to explore ways to address this challenge. 8.6 Secondly, GM's performance on skills is mixed. This reflects the scale of the challenge rather than a judgment of the quality of the work being undertaken. Whilst the percentage of working age residents with level 2 skills is ahead of the 2014 target (but is still 1.6% behind the UK rate); for level 4 skills we are not only 0.2% behind 2014 target but more worryingly the gap between us and the rest of the UK is widening. In 2014 GM is now 3.9% behind the UK rate, in 2011 we were 2.9% behind. The skill level of a workforce is also reflected in the wages it can command. Here again the gap between GM and UK has increased: in 2012 GM's median salary was 7.6% less than the UK's; it now is 9%, or £2250 less than the UK figure of £27,195. 8.7 GM is confident that it can address this challenge, but only if we our empowered to do so. We need influence - if not control - the whole skills system to ensure it delivers what GM needs. Currently our Devolution Agreement gives us control over only 40% of training spend for 16-24 year olds and we have no control over schools, colleges, apprenticeships or higher education. To progress this agenda we need more flexibility over where, and how, public investment is made. This needs to be combined with greater levels of employer involvement and investment. We will continue to press government on this matter to secure greater powers in this area. 8.8 The past year has been a momentous one for Greater Manchester. The powers and flexibilities gained as part of our devolution agreement are significant and are a vote of confidence in our ability to deliver. From June 2015 the appointment of a GM Interim Mayor will provide additional leadership capacity: someone who will help us maintain a sharp focus on delivery. Greater Manchester has worked hard to put delivery arrangements in place that will ensure that we have the best chance of fulfilling the Strategy's commitments to Greater Manchester's residents and businesses. This report marks a watershed on our progress on this journey. Greater Manchester Strategy Performance Framework: RAG DEFINITIONS Milestones…. Mark the completion of key activities necessary to achieve the delivery of the strategic priority (The headline activities should summarise the main areas of activity that you or your team are working on over the next two years); Should outline the high-level commitments which are essential enablers for the priority. They may refer to o processes (for example agreed plans, contracts, negotiations), or o physical or tangible developments (for example buildings). Must be SMART - specific, measureable, achievable, realistic, time-bound Milestones will be RAYG rated using the following definitions Progress is ahead of or on schedule with the milestone achieved or likely to be achieved. Progress is behind schedule but able to be recovered and there is a good change that the milestone will be achieved. Progress is behind schedule with key issues impeding recovery, but may be resolved with mitigating action. There is a significant risk that the milestone will not be achieved. Progress is behind schedule with recovery doubtful and the milestone unlikely to be achieved, or the ability to achieve the milestone is impaired by external factors which cannot be resolved. Second Tier indicators (key performance indicators) should… Relate directly to the main areas of activity being delivered under a priority; Already be collected as part a priority's more detailed performance managements. Second Tier indicators will be rated using the following definitions The target set for this indicator has been achieved or is on track to be achieved. The target for this indicator has not been met, but under-performance is by <10% and the direction of travel is in the desired direction. The target for this indicator has not been met, and is unlikely to be met. 1 2 3 4 5 RAG rating N/A Green Green 0 KPI Baseline (2013/14) Current performance RAG rating By 2020/21, tax take in Greater Manchester will have risen to £21.5bn and public expenditure will have fallen to £20.9bn. tbc tbc tbc Excellent progress has been made in devolving control over public spend in Greater Manchester financial freedoms. The Devolution Agreement and the Memorandum of Understanding with the Department of Health mark two key milestones in GM's long term goal to secure full fiscal devolution for the city region. Additional and supporting information: Growth and Reform Plan, Growth Deal, Devolution Agreement, Memorandum of Understanding with the Department of Health Performance comments: Key Performance Indicators Target (Mar 2016) tbc Development of an “accelerated growth scenario” to forecast employment growth, including a sectoral analysis of our key growth sectors, and an assessment of demographic change and the housing requirements arising from that change. This will essentially be a "policy on" scenario, to forecast the impact of growth and reform agenda in economic terms. The evidence base to support the development of the 'accelerated growth scenario' is in place, and Oxford Economics have been engaged to undertake the economic modelling required. Closing the Gap: ensuring that GM's increasing level of control over the levers and resources which im</p>
